Hi I was going through the chart of business and noticed that the PE of the business has gone up a lot and the price is still forming a base, so I want to know that whether the market is rerating the business or the business has become overvalued?

Hi @Avin_Bhagwani
Unfortunately couldn’t find that data in MOSL study.

The days of explosive growth in terms of Share price is over.

But at around 300-350 Rs and 6-6.5 PE with approximately 10% EPS growth( i am considering on high base) can PFC/REC provide a consistent overall return over next 5 years with lets say 10% – 15% CAGR + 3-5% DY.

Rather than running around buying hydrogen/smart meter/transformer small caps at 80-100 PE.

@1957 @Mudit.Kushalvardhan

I lost the count now, how many acquisitions Eris did after this post. I am not calling this as a bad capital allocation but I am not aligned with management’s thinking. Eris can very well be a multi bagger in future but it is very difficult for me to partner with management over cycles if I do not believe in management’s strategy. Some notes on – How I view capital allocation decisions

Threshold to past capital allocation mistakes – the evolving point of view

I categorise capital allocation mistakes in two buckets – 1) There is some opportunity to quantify the capital allocation mistake and 2) Where I perceive capital allocation is not the optimal one

Examples of first buckets are easy –

1. Material and frequent write offs on investments
2. Constantly losing market share
3. Business has to stress sale assets because of cashflow/debt issues

Examples of bucket 2 are my perceptions and hence these are more qualitative. Different investors can have different judgements. Some of the examples are as follows. In my investing journal, this is not the management thinking which I can associate with

1. Endurance Tech calling off Tyre capex because of stock market reaction
2. Minda corp investing in Pricol as a financial investment in the hope to do future hostile take over
3. Alembic pharma’s way of allocating capital
4. Tube investment foray in CDMO
5. Saregama announcing QIP for 10% equity for their expansion
6. Eris Life science way of growing branded pharmaceutical business

Each of the above points need separate nuanced discussion which also depends on one important point – time horizon around which investor makes this judgement

Till now I was very inflexible towards historic capital allocation mistakes by the managements. One of my core belief in equities is – I should drive car looking at ‘windshield’ but one eye on ‘rear’ mirror. Though past does not guarantee future but management decision across cycles is powerful way to analyse management’s thinking

Recently after listening to Pankaj Tibrewal interview, I am working in direction to change this rigid mindset to the one where I am more open towards past capital allocation mistakes and I do not outright reject ideas. Having said that, this change in point of view will reflect in my execution only in next bear markets.