p/bv is al time low & EV/EBIDTA-11 Low to peers. Capex , share holding only 16% retail holding; OPM should mean to reversion. Inventory normalized, Q4 should be better. Margin of safety looks good. Price retest trendline july 2013 to mar 2024 on monthly line chart.
Posts tagged Value Pickr
AA – Abhishek’s Attic (place to store stuff to clear my head)! (12-03-2024)
Should you invest at all time highs?
Look at the chart below. The markets are making an all time high. Does it make sense to invest now?
Well. well. Look again at the same chart below.
The first chart was from 2017-18. The markets had had a great run earlier till 2014-15. It went sideways the following two years and then started moving up again. This is pretty much what has happened now. Markets made a Covid rally high around Oct 2021 and then went sideways for two years till about Oct 2023. The rally has resumed since October 2023.
The markets will never go up or down linearly. There will be volatility, sometimes extreme volatility. As investors we need to behave rationally and with discipline acknowledging that we are playing a long game.
In the next few years, the markets will be substantially higher than where it is today. So, the question is do you keep waiting on the sidelines or do you dive in?
As Charlie Munger used to say in the Berkshire meetings… “I have nothing more to add.”
Smallcap momentum portfolio (12-03-2024)
@LarryWink I am sure the same people will come back and say how largecaps have saturated and we should shift focus to midcaps and smallcaps.
With the type of nimble rebalancing that we follow, we will book our losses quickly and shift to the more stronger stocks in the index. With the standard deviation factor that I use, some of the stocks showing big changes are avoided.
I have told myself not to apply my mind to any decision; just follow the system. I have the comfort of holding the strongest stocks in the index at all points of time. If the index chosen itself is wrong, then nothing can be done. I have also tried to distribute the risk by investing in 20 stocks from smallcap index and 25 from Microcap. If someone wants to reduce the risk even further, the best way is to increase the number of stocks. I know of one smallcase manager offering 50 stocks in a smallcap index.
I am certain I will come out making more money in the long run.
The SME portfolio (12-03-2024)
Yep.
On the averaging part, it is tough and you can only average once or twice till that stock becomes the highest allocation.
Pricol limited – OEM automotive (12-03-2024)
Pricol near 200DMA @326 & Fib Retrace level 0.5 @327 .It breach 30 WEMA @358. May be consolidate & trend change.
BSE (Bombay Stock Exchange)- Bet on Financialization? (12-03-2024)
NSE is cutting transaction charges by 1% in cash & derivative segment w.e.f. 01/04/24.
So, now NSE is fighting back.
The SME portfolio (12-03-2024)
For long term holding u need not bother. Keep averaging.
Amba Enterprises (12-03-2024)
A very low gross margin biz as there is a huge presence of unorganized players here hence operates at a very low NPM as well. One major problem if there is volatility in the underlying RM then the entire P&L goes for a toss.
If they shift to some value add stuff which makes the end consumer think that here they cannot buy local stuff then their margin trajectory changes otherwise this is just a commodity biz.
Linde India Ltd. – A Case Study by a Newbie! (12-03-2024)
strong volume breakout, Above 200DMA, symmatric triangle, 5 months Trendline BO.Fundamentaly also strong comp with capex & new aquasition.
Smallcap momentum portfolio (12-03-2024)
so vishwanath…how do you read from the most of the analysts’ notes these days …all of them say “move to largecaps, there is valuation exuberance at small mid caps”
how the momentum approach may fare if the analysts are to be believed or can the momentum still be able to post +ve outcomes ?
one advantage i see to momentum approach is, its easy or may be quicker to cash out, since your approach does not involve deep dive, deep valuation and ofcourse emotional attachcment.
i am keen to understand or study, if there is a way to get +ve outcomes at mid/smallcaps when they are correcting !