On a margin basis, it seems like Thirumalai could be at the bottom of the cycle. For a cyclical stock P/B could be another parameter to look at. On a P/B basis it still looks expensive compared to previous downcycles. Debt has significantly increased due to the company’s expansion plans. Interest burden could make things even more difficult for the company in this downcycle.
Posts tagged Value Pickr
Long term bonds (10-03-2024)
The main factor that affects bond prices are interest rates. Higher the duration of bonds more sensitive it is to changes in interest rates. So I would say there is no direct correlation between market crashes and bond prices. In the event of a equity market crash money may chase more safer investments and bonds may be one of those places but not necessarily so. In the event of a crash, if the central banks decide that it is more important to control inflation than focus on growth and increase market rates, Bond prices also will fall. I will give you two examples as well. In 2020, during covid crisis the markets fell and all the central banks focussed on growth and dropped the rates. Due to the drop in rates the bonds had a great time, just as we would like to. But in 2022, when the equity markets were not doing that good and there were even talks about recession. The central banks focussed on inflation and started increasing rates. So most bond funds fell along with equities.
Long term bonds (10-03-2024)
In 2022 pretty much all bond funds fell along with equity internationally due to the increase in rates by most central banks. Many debt funds fell 7 to 10 % solely on interest rate increases without any defaults. However, many debt funds moved close to 7 % in the last 3 months of 2023 anticipating future rate cuts. As for FDs, one doesn’t have to worry about who it is lent to. Rather one can look at CRAR to know how well a bank is capitalised so that one doesn’t have to worry about bankruptcies. For instance, Govt used to regularly infuse capital into PSBs to maintain this CRAR. Definitely, the return on debt funds are expected to be better. If we are taking into consideration the chances of default in bond funds, the big question is the differential in returns worth the risk?
Returns on bond funds mentioned are for international funds, never tracked Indian bond funds
Hitesh portfolio (10-03-2024)
Hi Hitesh bhai
I was wondering if you still track Techno Electric, and what your thoughts are on it at the moment. I saw rhat you started the VP thread on it many years back, but haven’t seen you active on it for a while now.
I did a short thesis post on X and on Techno’s VP thread recently, focusing on the disproportionate opportunity in the data center business that I feel the market has not appreciated yet. Posting it here for your reference and keen on getting your thoughts on the fundamental story and charts (that look weak at the moment).
Long term bonds (10-03-2024)
It is quite straight forward. Interest rates will only decline if inflation is receding. Thus the cause of receding inflation matters the most in determining what happens to equities.
If inflation is receding because economy is weakening, then equities will not do well. As ,even though valuations will appreciate for equities, the earnings will decline which would mean prices will decline.
If inflation is receding without weakening of economy, then equities will do well. earnings will sustain, the valuations will rise leading to a rise in equity prices.
Narayana Hrudayalaya Ltd (10-03-2024)
I think by Mid March, election dates will be announced and election code will come into place and it will be in status quo till new government is formed in May 2024.
Even after new government is formed it will take its own time as Health is state subject and central government will have to form consensus by discussing with all states.
In My opinion Q4,Q1 results won’t be impacted for sure.
Ami Organics – Pharma Intermediates & Specialty Chemicals (10-03-2024)
Electrolyte business will definately flourish this year
Fermion COntract also adds up to revenue in Q1 onwards
Ami Organics – Pharma Intermediates & Specialty Chemicals (10-03-2024)
Electrolyte business will definately flourish this year
Fermion COntract also adds up to revenue in Q1 onwards
Gensol Engineering – A play on Energy Transition (Solar Energy & EV) (10-03-2024)
As per my understanding, you will find many good or bad article and post on any company.
I dont think this is very serious and even blu smart benefit on minority stakeholders cost is also not known and no substantial evident. This will remain challenge in any company where intercompany transaction happen.
Further, the post are 5-10 years old and after that as well share given fantastic return.
The company’s performance specially in EPC business is shown in numbers and new order win.
Other VP members please suggest your views as well.
Disclosure – holding good % of my portfolio.
COSMIC CRF LIMITED – sme (10-03-2024)
Cosmic CRF Limited bags orders worth Rs. 16crore.
