Well put,
Can you please simplify it. With some tools e.g. Formula etc.
Thank you.
Posts tagged Value Pickr
Microcap momentum portfolio (10-03-2024)
HDFC Bank- we understand your world (10-03-2024)
CLSA snippet on HDFCBK posted on twitter
https://twitter.com/abhymurarka/status/1766389313531695165
Smallcap momentum portfolio (10-03-2024)
Please share update for 10th March
KPI Green- Turning Sunshine Into Cashflows (10-03-2024)
KPI is IPP Producer as well where they are giving the electricity to user on per unit basis which will give them good future cash flow in future as well when there is no solar contract and its high margin as well. So debt is higher due to that factor. Further after raising equity there debt to equity will go down to less than 1
KPI Green- Turning Sunshine Into Cashflows (10-03-2024)
Its debt…as per screener data kpi debt to equity is 2.58 which on higher side given its asset Heavy model. On the other side waaare is almost debt free company .
Also market discounting it behalf of foreword PE of only 57 if we calculate based on last eps which is 30.
Hope that help .or is there bubble .
I don’t know I’m still learning.
Disclaimer.Invested from1350 levels.
Saregama India Ltd: India’s premier music publishing label (10-03-2024)
why does everyone get so touchy feely when a particular youtuber’s old views are brought out in public domain ? 
Multi-Disciplinary Reading – Book Reviews (10-03-2024)
Zero To One masquerades as a business/investing book, but I think it is a deeply profound tome. My notes below.
Peter Thiel famously asks potential employees what he calls the contrarian question: What important truth do very few people agree with you on?
Good answers to the contrarian question are the closest we can come to looking into the future.
Monopoly and perfect competition are simplified economic models for market structures. But most firms are much closer to one extreme or the other than we perceive.
It is true that monopoly is evil – in a static world. In a dynamic world, the incentive of monopoly profits enables long-term planning, creative thinking, and innovation.
When Thiel ran some projections in 2001, he realised that 75% of PayPal’s value would come from cash flows generated after 2011. Terminal value stems from growth and durability: the latter is underrated.
While most analysts focus on short-term growth, the more important question to ask is, ‘will this firm be around 10 years from now?’ The best answers to this question arise not by crunching numbers but through an understanding of intangibles – especially enduring intangibles like people and culture.
Key drivers of monopoly:
1 Proprietary technology that is 10x better
2 Network effects
3 Scalability, especially at low marginal cost of replication
4 Branding built on underlying substance
Throughout history, people’s views of the future have been either definite (concrete) or indefinite (uncertain) and either optimistic or pessimistic.
Definite optimism, often dominated by STEM, is the most potent combination for progress. It entails envisioning a future, then building it – e.g. Apollo mission to the moon
Pessimism of both forms – definite and indefinite – often turns into a self-fulfilling prophecy: one expects the future to be worse than the present and then either finds ways of dealing with it (definite) or accepts it as it unfolds (indefinite)
Indefinite optimism (happy-go-lucky), often characterised by finance and law, is the most dangerous. It is inherently unattainable: how can the future be better if nobody works towards building it?
There are many secrets yet to be discovered. The ‘low hanging fruit has already been plucked’ theory is a bad explanation. Secrets reveal themselves to relentless searchers, e.g. Andrew Wiles proved Fermat’s last theorem after working on it for 9 years.
Thiel has found anecdotally that the lower the salary taken by founders/CEO, the better the startup does.
What is your answer to the contrarian question? Comment below!
Gensol Engineering – A play on Energy Transition (Solar Energy & EV) (10-03-2024)
The following is with reference to some of the recent posts in this thread.
It is neither a defence of Gensol nor intended to criticise anyone.
The objective is to get to the facts using these ideas:
a. To ask if the presented thought is a verifiable fact or an opinion.
b. That one is presumed innocent until proven guilty. This is counterbalanced by the idea that the facts may not be clear at the moment. And one may need to be patient. As such the idea is to prevent the baby being thrown out with the bath water.
I am a shareholder in the company. It forms less than 1% of my portfolio.
1. CARE Edge rating
The rating says that “Cancellation of lease agreement with Blue-Smart” would be a negative factor. It does not mean that the agreement has been cancelled.
In the positive factor it says “Successful operations of EV leasing with demonstration of timely receipt of lease rentals from Blue-Smart.”
And in the Outlook it says “Stable outlook reflects … structured lease arrangement with Blue-Smart”.
Had the agreement been cancelled, it is unlikely the outlook would have been “stable”. Moreover, as a material event, the company would have announced such a cancellation.
2. The Ken article (article)
“the leasing arrangement seems to favour Blusmart at the expense of Gensol’s minority shareholders, The Ken has learnt.”
“seems to favour” is an opinion and not a fact. “The Ken has learnt” but has not shared these learnings. There is no data in the article to support this argument.
The 23-Jan-24 concall transcript has some data on the leasing business:
- Leasing book: 800 crore
- Gensol’s cost of debt – ~10%
- Leasing income – ~15%
- Net interest margin – ~4-5%
- 15 customers
- Bluesmart share: >50%
Is the 4-5% margin on the leasing business low?
As a rough benchmark:
- HDFC Bank’s yield on assets is 8.3% (Dec’23) vs 14% for Gensol.
- HDFC Bank’s cost of funds is 4.9% vs 10% for Gensol
- Net Interest Margin is 3.4% vs 4% for Gensol
If Gensol were a pure asset leasing business, I would expect a higher margin in lending to a small “NBFC”.
Without a breakup of this business by customer, one cannot say if Blusmart has more favourable terms than other clients.
EV leasing is 16% of revenue but loses money. There isn’t enough data to show if this is an issue of lack of scale or of favourable terms for Bluesmart.
Bottom line: there is no evidence of underhand activity. Whether this is poor asset-allocation is debatable.
3. The review on Mouthshut (review)
The only verifiable fact in that review is the reference to the case in The High Court of Punjab and Haryana.
See Indian Kanoon for the judgement. (M/S Alankaram vs Gensol Engineering P Ltd on 4 May, 2018)
The petition is for the “appointment of an arbitrator to settle the dispute between the parties.”
The dispute was settled in Feb-2018. There is no judgement of wrong-doing.
4. The MoneyControl article on Tibrewala (article)
The charges against Tibrewala are of illegal betting and “hawala movement of the betting funds”.
There are no pump-and-dump allegations. The ED believes that Tibrewala was investing the betting proceeds in the stock market.
There are no facts to suggest that the Gensol promoters are involved in any illegal activities of Tibrewala.
I’m keen to learn more about Gensol, especially the economics of the EV leasing business.
Cheers
Globus Spirits (10-03-2024)
GSL is improving IMFL sales in WB,Haryana and Delhi. They are trying to get the shelf space in UP and Jharkhand.They have Governor’s reserve,Mountain Oak and Oakton under Whisky segment.Please provide the review of the products and availability in these states if anyone have access.