Market risks like higher commodity prices will always occur, but with Japan & EU in recession, China trying to kickstart growth, what is putting pressure for higher commodity prices?

Mgmt believes Commodity prices get passed over a gap of a quarter, so impact will be limited and margins should revert in a quarter. Below from their recent Conf call in Feb’24.

any one tracking this? @fundoo have you seen this white knight strategy before ? how do you think it plays out? if acquired is it indicated that the acquirer plan to liquidate excess assets and return cash?

I guess Ashish Kacholia has entered this stock even before this quarter. In the previous quarter i.e., in June 2023 his shareholding is less than 1%, because of all the preferential issue and warrants conversion.
Below is June’23 Shareholding

Below is the Preferential allotment happened in Sep’22

As per this bulk deal Promoters (RAHUL GUPTA + ROHAN GUPTA) have sold some share. But it is not reported in the Insider Trade disclosures below. Any reason why this can happen?

Making a fundamental analysis of HDFC Bank as of now from historical data does not make sense as it has gone through a huge ownership restructuring process as hdfc bank merged hdfc with itself becoming the single entity.

The biggest advantage HDFC Bank earlier had was its tech but not anymore, almost every other competitor today is equipped with similar tech.

ICICI Bank has shown far better growth in terms of new customer acquisition in the last 2-3 years.

Hdfc banks face the biggest challenge in retail as follows:

Moving to tier 2 tier 3 cities and rural areas to acquire customers would harm the bank more as they have a high Min balance requirements and high service charges (as people are accustomed to nationalised banks in these areas)

They have a huge fleet of ATMs and it is more than worrisome to maintain these as people have quickly shifted towards UPIs and maintenance cost could eat out huge portions of profits (5-10 years back it used to be the core edge they had)

HDFC Bank used to be the front runner in the credit card segment but currently the space has become too crowded with competition making it very hard to have a good profit margins.

But at current valuations, it is very hard to resist this keeping in mind the time it might take to unfold the merger benefits which could be 5-8 Qtrs from here.

It has a huge huge customer base to which it could cross sell its other financial services and products and this merger has added another big already established customer base.

The short term view could be near the election from now on till July end nearing results declaration of Q1.

Long term perspective is for almost 4-5 years making it a little sluggish but rather a safe bet in the fundamentally strong player.