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Posts tagged Value Pickr
LUX INDUSTRIES – Can it Scale? (24-02-2024)
I invested in this company at 1735 levels and m still holding it, the thing according to me everyone is missing is initiatives taken by company to improve transparecy, even before covid they were taking a few initiatives but those got derailed by that insider trading accusation (i personally ignore them to a extent if valuations are reasonable, because i have seen them happening in a lot of companies), m not being specific here as those have already been discussed above in the thread. I am not supporting it in any way and it definitely is an issue to be kept in mind.
And as far as that old accusation of murder of a person is concerned, all i have to say is that the situation the promoters found themselves in was very complex and they found themselves stuck between law and the societal pressure. The law clearly wouldn’t have yielded them the result they wanted to achieve, which was getting their daughter back to home (in fact, they tried to go legal way if news reports are to be believed) who had been legally married to the person whose death took place. I can not comment upon whether the promoters are guilty or not, because the matter is yet to be finalized by the courts as per my knowledge. The societal pressure was immense as the boy was from another religion. It is a shame that such an incident happened and may god give courage to victim’s family. It happened before the company got listed, if my understanding is correct. I will leave it at that.
The family feud thing, i can’t comment upon, as a lot of companies like muthoot and garware etc have managed such things successfully and a lot have failed the companies themselves. I hope they will find a solution. Till now nothing has come outside in media nor is any legal battle going on as per my knowledge, people (grapevine, not a fact) are saying that all 3 brothers are managing different divisions, isn’t that the way feud can be killed amicably rather than fighting in courts? I am betting my money on my assumption that it is going to be settled amicably, you choose for yourself.
Further, the news article quoted above (2 posts above) other than capex news also mentions that company don’t want any complications and is merging two unlisted family owned businesses into listed entity. Everyone had stopped expecting anything good from management and i feel like there was no pressure on management to clean up things but still it seems they are trying to improve things a bit. I am looking at it as continuation of their efforts from prior covid period to appear investor friendly.
If buffet compares companies with a movie then this movie appears to be going in right direction.
Further, i bought products of both page and lux and my review is that page products nowadays have fallen a bit in quality (socks i bought and didn’t last even 3 months, even roadside stands one would have lasted longer), this review is about socks only and can’t comment on other products. I bought onn t-shirt from a small shop in my hometown and i must say that it was a good value for money deal, it costed me 300 (less than jockey underwear) and have been using it for a year now. I think in india there is still a large enough market for companies selling value for money proposition. If premiumness is to be compared then i must say that page as well as lux both are confusing their customers, page is compromising on quality and is utilizing their brand which is not a good thing, on the other hand lux is attaching their premium brand onn to a cheap but good product, which also is not good as we have seen in the case of reebok. Nowadays i have seen a lot of clothing brands like ven heusen and others selling underwears, that is a bigger threat to jockey than lux.
That’s all from my side, i will try to add a bit more of this company, and keep in mind i am not a professional investor, instead i am a cheap fellow who wears lux instead of jockey and who has refused to give in to societal pressure of buying 500 ka chaddi. Kuch bachaunga tabhi to invest karoonga 
Praveg Ltd: Play on Indian Tourism Industry! (24-02-2024)
I don’t agree. You have to understand that current hotel industry managements and thought process has been around for years and not easy to change. Thus their business model will take time to evolve. Also with already so many assets in traditional hotel buildings, how they think about capital allocation at a scale in setting up structures like praveg. Praveg started with eco tourism and thus offers them to pick venues which are very differentiated and execute them very efficiently with lowest cost. Think margins and op leverage once their desired count of resorts are operational. Market is giving such high PE for this reason. By the time this moat gets impacted, Praveg would have scaled enough domestically and in international markets as well because they have first mover advantage. In regards to connection with politicians / government, I would think it is naive to take investment decision based on this half truth or totally false facts (false because they are not proven in public domain). Hypothetically even if they are connected, as investors our focus should be to compound in a stock with sound business model and should there be any political connection, I won’t mind if it benefits my investment. There has been enough talk about connections of Reliance and Adani, most long term investors have done well in these stocks
Praveg Ltd: Play on Indian Tourism Industry! (24-02-2024)
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Dream FIRE Portfolio (24-02-2024)
As both India and US stock markets are firing on all cylinders, so is my portfolio. “Double Engine” growth is still intact as both are under the grip of razing hot bull markets. On top of that I got lucky to identify the trend (AI and Cloud technology) of the US bull market way before it started. Though I am using the same long term investment strategy in both markets, interestingly money is being made from completely two different sets of stocks. In the India portfolio I am making money consistently from compounders having low volatility whereas in the US market money is being made from disruptors with very high volatility.
In the India portfolio I sold Polycab with 5X gain (held it for less than 4 yrs) immediately after noticing tax dispute news. I had to sell it as my past experience with companies with similar disputes was not pleasant. It’s very well possible that Polycab won’t get affected at all and continue to march higher. But I took a call as I was suffering from once bitten twice shy syndrome:). I went ahead and invested the entire proceeding (excluding tax outgo) in Trent which is already up more than 20% after declaring stellar results in last quarter. I only find price wise competitive fresh vegetable/grocery items from Start Bazaar in my area. My bad that I did not know the Star Bazaar franchise belonging to Trent. Did not think twice about investing in Trent as soon as I discovered it:) Need to see if I can make 10X of my original investment made on Polycab and Trent in the next 3 years.
In my India portfolio, long time winners like Bajaj Finance/Asian Paints/Pidilite are underperforming big time but other stocks like Granules India (new 5X entrant in my portfolio)/Varun Beverage/Ethos/TCS/Zomato are more than making it up for them and helping me to outperform the market. 5 yrs portfolio CAGR now stands at 23.8%. Among 22 companies in my portfolio I am super bullish on Ethos which has all ingredients to become another 5Xer within the next couple of years.
The US portfolio is all about AI and its related technologies. Latest Nvidia result has firmly established the fact that AI is not a fad and in fact is capable of making long term transformations like the Internet. When I was making an investment on Nvidia during the 2022 bear market then my expectation was to make at most 2X in the next 3 yrs. Never dreamed about making 6X(and counting) in a couple of yrs, unbelievable.
Interestingly bubbles/speculation starts during a low interest rate environment and ends with a high interest rate. But this time the so-called AI frenzy has started when the global interest rate is in decadal high and not much free money is sloshing around the world. Companies are saving money from elsewhere and falling in line to make investment on AI big time. It proves that tech is real, deflationary and has a long runway for growth. If anything else is in the firing line then I would argue that this time it’s EVs and clean/green energy companies whose products/services are inflationary and have high probability to go under if the rate remains higher for longer.
Another observation is that being predominantly a hardware mega cap company (75% gross margin) if Nvidia can appreciate so much in a short period of time then what will happen to AI software winners that command gross margins more than 85%. Given that such companies are still in their infancy and US small/mid caps are still in bear market I can guess (no guarantee though) that such companies will go parabolic when the interest rate cut cycle begins. If the Nvidia stock price appreciates 10X in 3 years (from trough to peak in recent cycle) then one can imagine the scale of price appreciation of such AI software winners. I see that such a journey has already begun by looking at the price action of my portfolio companies such as Confluent/Palantir/Cloudflare/Snowflake/MongoDB/UIPath etc… Few more may emerge as big winners in this space.
Thanks to internet technology, novice investors like me can buy/sell stocks in any market sitting in the comfort of my home in India with a click of a button. Hopefully AI technology can take it to the next level to prevent us from doing crazy things with our own money and hence make us better investors:)
Zen technologies – A micro cap in the defense space! (24-02-2024)
They acquired a company which is less one year old and yet to generate revenue…
Zen technologies – A micro cap in the defense space! (24-02-2024)
They acquired a company which is less one year old and yet to generate revenue…
Dhanuka agritech (24-02-2024)
Dhanuka Agritech –
Q3 FY 24 results and concall highlights –
Revenues @ 403 vs 393 cr { volume growth @ 8.5 pc, price growth at (-) 6 pc }
Gross profit @ 155 vs 130 cr ( margins @ 38 vs 33 pc )
EBITDA @ 62 vs 51 cr ( margins @ 15 vs 13 pc yoy )
PAT @ 45 vs 47 cr ( due steep jump in Depreciation cost @ 13 vs 4 cr YoY – on account of the new Dahej facility )
Company operates via 03 manufacturing plants, 41 warehouses, 6500 distributors and over 1000 strong field force
Product wise sales break up (YoY) –
Insecticides – 32 vs 29 pc
Fungicides – 21 vs 20 pc
Herbicides – 35 vs 39 pc
Others ( Plant growth Regulators ) – 12 vs 12 pc
Geography wise sales break up ( YoY ) –
North – 22 vs 22 pc
South – 39 vs 38 pc
East – 12 vs 11 pc
West – 27 vs 29 pc
Company signed a LoI with a Spanish biotech – Kimitec to set up a JV in India to commercialise biological crop protection products. Kimitec operates the largest Biotech Lab for Agro products in EU
Invested in a startup – KissanKonnect – it delivers farm produce directly to consumers through it mobile app and stores network
Significant Gross Margin expansion is due to improved sales from speciality vs generic products
Expecting a high single digit volume growth in Q4 as well
There r 3 types of Biological agro products that the company is working on – Bio Nutrients, Bio Stimulants, Bio Regulators. Some of Kimitech’s products are already approved in India. Company intends to start rolling out these products in the next Kharif season. The Mkt for Bio products is growing very fast @ 15-16 pc CAGR in India. Margins in these products are > company level Gross Margins
For FY 25, a lot of exiting launches are lined up in the Herbicides, Insecticides categories. This should help the company clock double digit revenues with improved margins in FY 25 ( that would be a bumper outcome … IMHO )
Company launched an innovative Japanese product – Decide used against the sucking pests for the chilli crop ( a few years back ). It ended up being a huge hit. Has scaled up well. Another product – Zanet – a fungicide for Tomato crop has been doing very well. On similar lines, company is going to introduce a new Herbicide for the Ground nuts and Soyabeans crops
Company had earlier guided for 80-100 cr of topline from the Dahej pant for FY 25. However, due to a slowdown in the AI mkts ( globally ), company is likely to revise this guidance lower. Still expect Dahej plant to be EBITDA positive inside next 2 yrs. This yr, Dahej plant has clocked an EBITDA loss of around 10 cr for 9M FY 24
Management remains extremely exited about the new and innovative product launches in next FY
Disc: holding, biased, not SEBI registered
Dhanuka agritech (24-02-2024)
Dhanuka Agritech –
Q3 FY 24 results and concall highlights –
Revenues @ 403 vs 393 cr { volume growth @ 8.5 pc, price growth at (-) 6 pc }
Gross profit @ 155 vs 130 cr ( margins @ 38 vs 33 pc )
EBITDA @ 62 vs 51 cr ( margins @ 15 vs 13 pc yoy )
PAT @ 45 vs 47 cr ( due steep jump in Depreciation cost @ 13 vs 4 cr YoY – on account of the new Dahej facility )
Company operates via 03 manufacturing plants, 41 warehouses, 6500 distributors and over 1000 strong field force
Product wise sales break up (YoY) –
Insecticides – 32 vs 29 pc
Fungicides – 21 vs 20 pc
Herbicides – 35 vs 39 pc
Others ( Plant growth Regulators ) – 12 vs 12 pc
Geography wise sales break up ( YoY ) –
North – 22 vs 22 pc
South – 39 vs 38 pc
East – 12 vs 11 pc
West – 27 vs 29 pc
Company signed a LoI with a Spanish biotech – Kimitec to set up a JV in India to commercialise biological crop protection products. Kimitec operates the largest Biotech Lab for Agro products in EU
Invested in a startup – KissanKonnect – it delivers farm produce directly to consumers through it mobile app and stores network
Significant Gross Margin expansion is due to improved sales from speciality vs generic products
Expecting a high single digit volume growth in Q4 as well
There r 3 types of Biological agro products that the company is working on – Bio Nutrients, Bio Stimulants, Bio Regulators. Some of Kimitech’s products are already approved in India. Company intends to start rolling out these products in the next Kharif season. The Mkt for Bio products is growing very fast @ 15-16 pc CAGR in India. Margins in these products are > company level Gross Margins
For FY 25, a lot of exiting launches are lined up in the Herbicides, Insecticides categories. This should help the company clock double digit revenues with improved margins in FY 25 ( that would be a bumper outcome … IMHO )
Company launched an innovative Japanese product – Decide used against the sucking pests for the chilli crop ( a few years back ). It ended up being a huge hit. Has scaled up well. Another product – Zanet – a fungicide for Tomato crop has been doing very well. On similar lines, company is going to introduce a new Herbicide for the Ground nuts and Soyabeans crops
Company had earlier guided for 80-100 cr of topline from the Dahej pant for FY 25. However, due to a slowdown in the AI mkts ( globally ), company is likely to revise this guidance lower. Still expect Dahej plant to be EBITDA positive inside next 2 yrs. This yr, Dahej plant has clocked an EBITDA loss of around 10 cr for 9M FY 24
Management remains extremely exited about the new and innovative product launches in next FY
Disc: holding, biased, not SEBI registered
Ranvir’s Portfolio (24-02-2024)
Dhanuka Agritech –
Q3 FY 24 results and concall highlights –
Revenues @ 403 vs 393 cr { volume growth @ 8.5 pc, price growth at (-) 6 pc }
Gross profit @ 155 vs 130 cr ( margins @ 38 vs 33 pc )
EBITDA @ 62 vs 51 cr ( margins @ 15 vs 13 pc yoy )
PAT @ 45 vs 47 cr ( due steep jump in Depreciation cost @ 13 vs 4 cr YoY – on account of the new Dahej facility )
Company operates via 03 manufacturing plants, 41 warehouses, 6500 distributors and over 1000 strong field force
Product wise sales break up (YoY) –
Insecticides – 32 vs 29 pc
Fungicides – 21 vs 20 pc
Herbicides – 35 vs 39 pc
Others ( Plant growth Regulators ) – 12 vs 12 pc
Geography wise sales break up ( YoY ) –
North – 22 vs 22 pc
South – 39 vs 38 pc
East – 12 vs 11 pc
West – 27 vs 29 pc
Company signed a LoI with a Spanish biotech – Kimitec to set up a JV in India to commercialise biological crop protection products. Kimitec operates the largest Biotech Lab for Agro products in EU
Invested in a startup – KissanKonnect – it delivers farm produce directly to consumers through it mobile app and stores network
Significant Gross Margin expansion is due to improved sales from speciality vs generic products
Expecting a high single digit volume growth in Q4 as well
There r 3 types of Biological agro products that the company is working on – Bio Nutrients, Bio Stimulants, Bio Regulators. Some of Kimitech’s products are already approved in India. Company intends to start rolling out these products in the next Kharif season. The Mkt for Bio products is growing very fast @ 15-16 pc CAGR in India. Margins in these products are > company level Gross Margins
For FY 25, a lot of exiting launches are lined up in the Herbicides, Insecticides categories. This should help the company clock double digit revenues with improved margins in FY 25 ( that would be a bumper outcome … IMHO )
Company launched an innovative Japanese product – Decide used against the sucking pests for the chilli crop ( a few years back ). It ended up being a huge hit. Has scaled up well. Another product – Zanet – a fungicide for Tomato crop has been doing very well. On similar lines, company is going to introduce a new Herbicide for the Ground nuts and Soyabeans crops
Company had earlier guided for 80-100 cr of topline from the Dahej pant for FY 25. However, due to a slowdown in the AI mkts ( globally ), company is likely to revise this guidance lower. Still expect Dahej plant to be EBITDA positive inside next 2 yrs. This yr, Dahej plant has clocked an EBITDA loss of around 10 cr for 9M FY 24
Management remains extremely exited about the new and innovative product launches in next FY
Disc: holding, biased, not SEBI registered