Does anyone know company’s order-dispatch cycle?
In Q3 FY24 presentation, it has been mentioned company has an order book of ~400 Crs which at current run rate is less than one month of orders.
How does one evaluate if pending order book is good enough?

@Jitendra_Vyas

I dont track the fundamentals of either Pennar Inds or Capacite infra. Charts of both companies look interesting. They are not in my watchlist.

@Sambhavk

RIIL has given a multi year breakout above 1100-1200. Stock price is at almost a 15 year high. But I have never managed to understand on what basis the stock keeps going up and down. Fundamentals wise a quick glance at the 10 year results on screener does not provide a very encouraging picture.

In the final phases of a bull markets stocks often go up, and go up a lot purely based on stories and narratives.

Our job as investors is to make sure we know what we are buying and why we are buying. This view has got nothing to do with RIIL in particular. Who knows it might go up a lot from here. But if I dont have any fundamental conviction, then it would be difficult for me to hold on to it if it starts correcting.

The biggest mistakes are committed in roaring bull markets and they often turn out to be the most expensive. Hence while investing particularly during frothy bull markets we have to be very sure about what we are buying.

Con Call Highlights

1. Q3 occupancy lower due to many festivals etc in between which delays a lot of elective surgeries. Jan utilisation levels are higher and Q4 is likely to be materially higher than Q3

2. EBITDA breakeven for Asian Fidelis in 2 years. Likely ARPOB around Noida Hospital (currently at 25-30k range).

3. Jhansi Orcha is currently running at 6% EBITDA levels, to reach optimum utlisation capacity by next year (indicating big bump in next few quarters… since Q3 utilisation is around 22%)

4. Receivables has inched up mainly due to government side… but they are likely to be in control and release in the coming months

5. Robotic surgeries started in Greater Noida & Noida Extension and ARPOB is likely to inch up further in Q4. Radition oncology will also help that.

6. No EWS obligation on the hospital. Lands bought at market rates.

7. International patient ARPOB is higher. To get a boost once Noida airport starts (slated for end 2024 with 1 runway)

8. Tax was kept higher due to some conservative calculations, would normalise in subsequent few quarters

9. Brownfield expansions (Greater Noida & Noida Extension) to come up in next 1-2 years since the hospitals would reach the utilisation by then.

10. Confident of maintaining EBITDA % as in FY24 in the next year despite losses from Asian Fidelis (higher ARPOB is coming!)

Hoping for a bumper Q4 given higher ARPOBs and utilisation.

D – Invested

About Inox India Limited

Established in 1976, Inox India Limited has been a stalwart in manufacturing and supplying cryogenic equipment. With a rich history spanning over four decades, the company operates through three distinctive divisions: Industrial Gas, LNG and Cryo Scientific.

The diverse product portfolio includes standard cryogenic tanks, beverage kegs, bespoke technology, equipment, and solutions. Additionally, the company undertakes large-scale turnkey projects across various industries, including industrial gases, LNG, green hydrogen, energy, steel, medical and healthcare, chemicals and fertilizers, aviation and aerospace, pharmaceuticals, and construction.

Strengths

Established Reputation: Inox India Limited boasts a strong and established reputation as a leading manufacturer and supplier of cryogenic equipment.

Diverse Product Portfolio: The company’s product range spans across various industries, including industrial gases, LNG, green hydrogen, and healthcare, providing diversification and revenue stability.

Global Reach: With exports to 66 countries, Inox has a robust global presence, tapping into markets such as the United States, Saudi Arabia, the Netherlands, Brazil, and more.

Comprehensive Divisions: The three divisions (Industrial Gas, LNG, and Cryo Scientific) contribute to a comprehensive and versatile business model, catering to different technological and industrial needs.

Risks

Market Dependence: Inox’s performance is subject to market conditions, and any downturn in sectors like energy, steel, or aviation could impact its financials.

Regulatory Challenges: The company operates in a sector that may be influenced by evolving regulations, and changes in compliance requirements could pose challenges.

Global Economic Factors: Economic fluctuations globally can impact demand for industrial equipment, affecting Inox’s export-oriented business.

Technological Changes: Rapid technological advancements may require continual investment in research and development to stay competitive, posing a risk of obsolescence.

Disc. : Invested since IPO