@Dhruv_Galada
I agree that if they increase prices from current levels, it still would be relatively cheaper compared to alternate fuels. The only question to consider is – What if competition offers gas at lower prices than IGL? If people are getting something cheaper than 2.40 per kg then why would they opt for 2.40 per kg gas from IGL considering that its cheaper than petrol? Comparison with other fuels becomes an irrelevant point. Also government’s stance is not in favour of price increase. They are more interested in reducing prices for consumers. So there are high chances that prices won’t improve. It would be interesting to see how this actually plays out. I am not overruling being wrong here because this field is such that things are hard to predict.

Now I am not sure how much competition IGL actually has. The competition has to scale up to the level of IGL (pipeline/volume wise) which may take some time and IGL may get some rope. Does anybody have an idea on competitors? The data on competitors distribution network (pipeline in kms ) or their volumes or their sourcing arrangements would give us a good idea where IGL stands.

On point 2, there will be benefits with natural gas coming under GST but this benefit applies to all competitors out there. If prices reduce then this benefit will be more than offset.

If I understand correctly warrants have been converted to stock on 5th November(Correct me if I made wrong assesment here but quantity matches so…)

1. Initial Cost of Warrants

• Price per warrant = ₹530
• Upfront Payment (25%) = ₹530 × 0.25 = ₹132.5 per warrant
  Total Upfront Payment = 12,10,000 × ₹132.5 = ₹16,02,25,000 (₹16.02 crores)
• Remaining Payment (75%) = ₹530 × 0.75 = ₹397.5 per warrant
  Total Remaining Payment = 12,10,000 × ₹397.5 = ₹48,07,25,000 (₹48.07 crores)
• Total Cost = ₹16.02 crores + ₹48.07 crores = ₹64.09 crores

2. Market Value on 5th November 2024

• Price per warrant on 5th November = ₹1,288
  Total Market Value = 12,10,000 × ₹1,288 = ₹1,55,77,60,000 (₹155.77 crores)
  

3. Total Gain

• Total Gain = Market Value – Total Cost
  Total Gain = ₹155.77 crores – ₹64.09 crores = ₹91.68 crores
  The total gain on the warrants as of 5th November 2024 was ₹91.68 crores.

So in last 2 qaurters company made 65 cr profit and promoter group made 91.68 cr?
Please out mistakes in calculations if you spot any.

So here are my questions then :
1: This WEBSOL GREEN PROJECTS PRIVATE LIMITED can anyone help me with more details on this difficult to pin down as it is private.
2: Also how these 91 cr were used by it.

Thing which looks out of place to me is :
1: If credit line was secured from IREDA and pref raised why the need of pref warrants to get just ~15cr of captial infusion from promter
2: Why convert warrants now in bearish market when stock is expected to give stellar return based on demand and capex. They could keep it for atleast 4 qaurters.

Note: Not invested looking to take some position