Well, I don’t know much about charts and technicals, but my thesis is (1) p/b bottoming out to all-time-lows, and at the same time (2) p/e instead being at a significant premium to the historical p/e, together indicate a bottoming-out of the price. To me: (2) above is indicative of “hope” of good things to come. Additionally, I rationalized all this in light of the narrative I shared earlier (all bad news baked in).

Contigent liability of 2496cr, can anyone tell the reason?Still why big investors are attracted to this stock?

Technically speaking, there is an RSI divergence on the charts.

My notes from Q3 FY 24 call

1. Order book – 1027 cr.

• 90% of it is defence. Domestic is 88% and export is 12%
• Order inflow for YTD FY 24 is at 632 crore. Includes orders from BDL, L&T and MoD (IAF), IAI to be executed over the next 9-18 months.
• Will be maintaining 1000 cr order book going forward too
• Confident of executing these from present capacity, no need for any fresh capex as on date.

2. Impact of Geo political issues –

• Shipment Deliveries to Israel impacted due to Red Sea crisis. However conditions have improved of late. Expecting delivery to completed in Feb.
• Planning to export more by air currently than by sea, to counter the issue. All shortfall of Q3 will be made up in Q4. Have not lost any orders in Q3. No issues on pricing front.
• Working on other requirements from Israel and next orders likely to come up by Q1 FY 25

3. Lower margins- Margins impacted owing to delay in defence orders

• Margin dependency on product mix. Product mix in defence keeps on changing.
• Expect to maintain 18 to 20% margin.
• 26 to 28% margin for defence orders – guidance remains intact.
• Gross margin has improved sequentially.

4. Exports – currently 12% of order book is from exports

• Some more export orders are in pipeline… Have not lost any orders
• Adding mines, ammunition, RDX in the product portfolio – exporting these products
• Getting queries from Europe too.

5. Chaffs and flares order to MoD, IAF

• Chaffs and flares order which was to be started in Feb 24 is now delayed to Mar 24 (subject to approvals from MoD)
• Chaffs and flares – Order cycle not predictable. Next order of 300 to 400 crore – RFP may come up by either by end of this calendar year.

6. Entered into manufacturing of mines and ammunition. Production of Nipun mines has started and pre-dispatch likely to start in Q1 FY 25
   More on Nipun mines here

7. Approx 270-280 cr guidance for FY 24. Revenue likely to be approx. around 600 cr in FY 25

8. Space opportunities

• Already producing strap-on motors for PSLV
• Expected to be 400 cr annual opportunity in next 4 to 5 years

9. Pinaka Mark I & II opportunity …

• Qualified for manufacturing of rocket propellants mark I and II. Some other companies are involved currently. If there are opportunities in future, capable of taking it up.

Disc: Invested