Quick notes on Man Industries concall:

• Order book → Unexecuted orders of 1300 crs to be completed in the next 6 months, evenly split between oil and gas and water (50-50%). EBITDA margins for oil and gas are 11-13%, while for water, they are 7-8%.
• Guidance → Projected 20-25% growth in topline (approx 3600 crs) with a 30-35% bottom-line increase. EBITDA margin expected at 9-11% (330-350 crs). For 2025-26, a topline growth of 60-70% (approx 5000 crs) with an EBITDA margin at 10-11% is anticipated. EBITDA margin includes other income, excluding which shows a 1.5% difference.
• Capex → FY24 capex was 90 crs, with 25 crs remaining to be spent in the next 2 months. For FY25, capex is estimated at 150 crs.
• ERW Plant → Anticipated revenue of 300-400 crs to commence in 2024-25, reaching 400-500 crs in FY26, with peak revenue potentially at 1000 crs.
• Stainless Steel Pipes → Operations expected from Q4FY25, serving both domestic and export markets for the oil and gas sector. Mother pipes constitute 60-70%, and pilger pipes, with higher margins and smaller sizes, make up the rest. Margins projected at 10-11%. Revenue for FY26 (first year) estimated at 300-400 crs.
• Rational for raising 250crs → Current capex of 550 crs for stainless steel, with more capex pending approval for LSAW and HSAW in different countries; debt to increase to 600-700 crs.
• Hydrogen transportation pipe → Approval from European Research Lab received after 16 months; bidding for orders in Europe started; new sector with exclusive pipes required for hydrogen; expected orders in the next 3 years; margin expectation of 18-20%; in Vibrant Gujarat approx quantity in the next 10-15 years is >5 million tonnes;
• Saudi Plant → Awaiting in-principle approvals; limited disclosure of information.
• Real Estate → Joint Development Agreement with an A+ developer; entire project development by the developer; upfront and ongoing revenue for the next 4-5 years.
• Other Expenses → Rise in expenses due to increased component of freight charges; Q3FY22 freight cost was 22 crs, rising to 70 crs this year due to more export-based orders; no observed price impact from the Red Sea.
• Volume → For this quarter, 85-90k tonnes; compared to 65k tonnes in the same quarter last year.

Hello Hitesh Sir,
I had a query regarding the breakout volume. As you have discussed earlier and has been stated in many books on technical analysis that volume during the breakout week should exceed the average of past weeks by a good amount.
My query is on how to judge the volume with respect to deliveries for the day/week. Nowadays, many high frequency trading LLP do intraday trading in huge volumes, which gives an illusion of volume breakout but as per the textbooks, the volume breakout signals big institutional entries while this is not the case with these high frequency trading companies. The chart seems to show a perfect breakout with extremely high volumes but the volumes end up being intraday spikes.
Do you have any criteria to avoid /filter these kind of actions.
I hope my question was clear and thanks in advance.

These are not the actual buyers or sellers. The disclosed quantities are far less than the actual quantities on buy and sell. Doesn’t mean much in itself. In this downfall, the volumes and delivery percentages are very high. Maybe a turnaround is imminent. A lowering of fuel prices could be the trigger.

The most important words in investing are – Margin of safety and patience.

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