Taking a short cut here with this genuine question as I haven’t looked at the company in recent times.
What has changed form UFO of 2016-2023 to UFO of today?
Has the business model changed?
If they weren’t able to grow then, then what has changed for them to be able to grow now?

Thanks.

Agree, DBOL concall was very informative about the company and the industry.

Few key points:

1. Cost reduction : Increase in recovery rate (by 0.9 to 1%) will more than compensate increase in cost due to SAP price increase. As 0.1% recovery increase translates into cost reduction by Rs 0.35 per kg of sugar so due to 1% increase in recovery cost will come down by Rs. 3 and cane cost will go up by Rs. 2 so effectively margin will increase by Rs. 1 per kg. So on 4.5 lac ton sugar it should be Rs. 45 crs.

2. Revenue growth : Sugar prices will not jump but will increase to the extent of SAP increase ( which implies by Rs. 2 /kg) – even if Re 1 increase in price of sugar will translate in Rs. 45 cr for the year.

3. Cane crushed for full season will be 5 to 7 % higher than last year

So all in all, DBOL profits should be at least Rs. 100 cr higher than last year – on account of recovery improvement, cane volume increase and sugar price increase. Even if sugar prices dont increase the increase in profits will be Rs. 50 crores. Post depreciation increase/ other costs annual profit should be 150crs – EPS of 23 which is similar to Dhampur sugar). At a PE multiple of 10, fair value should be Rs. 230.

Further, if they convert the ethanol plant to dual fuel and maize is available at reasonable price then ethanol volumes and profits will be higher.

Please comment – agree/ disagree…

Cipla has broken out of its Flag and Pole pattern and also its 52 weeks high. It has consolidated enough before the breakout, hence the trend is very strong. The targets are close to 1650-1700.

@Ferrari1976 Great informative thread. However seems like IGNOU has stopped the online program and is now offering a one year program PGDIFM offline.

Most of the queries are answered here, but since every case is unique – I’d like to DM/speak with you before i proceed.

My background:
BE in IT (Mumbai)
MS in CS (USA)
Worked as a developer (Sony, Goldman Sachs in US)
Worked as a product manager, SPM (Jio, Tata Sky, Priceline in Mumbai)

Very interested in equity research, hence came up with the idea to explore Sebi registered RA

But i don’t have any finance degree like you & few others who have written above.

Deadline for IGNOU Course is: 31st Jan 2024. With less than a week, its a little rush

Hope to hear back