You are correct. Many investors knowing this have stayed away from ICICI Bank after 2009 including me. I was unable to build conviction in ICICI Bank for a long time knowing their high exposure to UK/Europe if I remember correctly. Now things have changed but I have not build conviction in ICICI Bank after 2009.
Posts tagged Value Pickr
Galaxy Bearings (23-01-2024)
I just watched the AGM. Though couldn’t really discern anything much from the last AGM , as the promoter said they can’t disclose their order books in view of competition.
However , w.r.t the capex only discernible takeaway could be him saying that company CU is currently at 90 percent utilisation, which may say that capacity augmentation would lead to more order implementation as the restrain in capacity might be causing a bit of constraint in terms of taking on or committing to increased orders.
Can anyone shed light on order/demand situation currently for the industry ?
MapMyIndia – The Map Company (23-01-2024)
100% agree.
Adding more point to it. Ola maps will not be that accurate.
Plus the real monopoly will come to map India (Not sure whether people can presently update the mappls or not), once community start getting update like people can update the Google map
HDFC Bank- we understand your world (23-01-2024)
India does have upto 5L insured by banks covered by DICGC.
CFF Fluid Control Limited – SME (23-01-2024)
Promoters are taking 113 crores Gross Renumeration from company.
Don’t you think that is a bit too much considering this is a microcap company?
Disc- Invested, Re-evaluating my decision.
HDFC Bank- we understand your world (23-01-2024)
Even if you assume no one puts a single additional rupee as deposit into Hdfc.
I suspect hdfc Bank can raise funds via ncd etc at a cheaper rate than the new age fintechs.
When I am looking for a loan, I don’t care much which company lend me money. (Money is fungible) but when I am going to lend money (or deposit money which is also lending to the bank even though they don’t say it out loud) I very much care about the stability and reputation of the bank.
As far as I know, India doesn’t have a deposit insurance like the US (what’s called FDIC). FDIC in the US covers up to 250k of deposit per account. If a bank goes bust then anything more than 250k is potentially lost. This would potentially mean that I shouldn’t really care which bank I keep my money as long as it’s below 250k. But I still choose a reputed bank since I don’t want to go thru any angst of getting the money thru the deposit insurance scheme of shit hits the fan.
Even the FDIC in the US is funded by every bank making a contribution. It assumes some banks going bust. But if many large banks go bust, then even the FDIC wouldn’t be able to pay everyone I think. All insurances must assume some base case and some worst case scenario.
Back to Indian banking, I think someone told me about 1lk is guaranteed beyond that it’s possible to lose it a bank goes under. So it’s best to keep money in PSB or very reputable private banks (even there over might distribute between multiple banks). I would never deposit any money in any of the fintechs even if they were taking deposits.
During the 2008 financial crisis, ICICI was very close to collapse. You can read about it. Although the bank officials will never acknowledge these things because it’s all based on confidence.
Sugar Cycles: 7-8 years of losses followed by 2-3 years of super gains! (23-01-2024)
Dhampur Bio call yesterday was informative in many aspects:
- With SS22-23 as base year, Govt has flexibility to play with 10+ M Tons of sugar (export 6.4M, syrup/cane juice diversion 3.8M) to ensure lack of cane doesn’t result in less sugar (and hence sugar price rise). It might be even slightly more as B-Heavy molasses conversion to ethanol has also been “banned”, but offset by “1.7M Ton cane juice” allowed for ethanol conversion.
- Management doesn’t expect sugar price to go up a lot even after elections.
- Dhampur Bio recovery set to improve ~0.85% more vs last year due to higher crushing (they were guarded about numbers) and disease cleared from last year.
- No expectation of more cane juice conversion even next sugar year.
My take-aways:
- Dhampur Bio recovery improvement might offset the rise in input cane cost from UP SAP increase.
- Profitability (high essentially due to cane juice/B-Heavy ethanol from last 2 years) to be muted for all mills in SS23-24 & SS24-25, might be offset by Govt raising minimum selling price of sugar if profits gets too low and mills can’t pay farmers on time.
- No run-away sugar profits either this or next sugar year (as @Mehnazfatima foresaw).
- Govt may be willing to take a hit on EBP even next year, or with enough stocks allow EBP at the cost of sugar exports.
- Sugar mills profitability were because of both exports and EBP in previous years.
- Any gains after 2 years will be based on betting on mills that will/are:
a) improving crushing capacity + cane availability (Dhampur Bio)
b) have spare distillery capacity + cane availability (Dhampur Bio, Dalmia)
c) have spare multi-feed distillery capacity (Dalmia)
Looks like Dhampur Bio may be a good potential turn-around candidate.
Brand concept – New Emerging Micro cap Retailer (23-01-2024)
Promoter holding decreased by a certain % ,along with this Mr.avinav kumar .
Can anyone come up with the reason , why ?
51.24% – 48.81% QoQ
Vedant Fashions (Manyavar) – Niche Branded Retail (23-01-2024)
What will be the impact of IT notices company received for previous years? Please share your thoughts.
Disc: Tracking position