As on now Market is rewarding this Fraudulent Company with Upper Circuits.
Tells you which kind of rally we are in.
Posts tagged Value Pickr
The PSU Rally- Could Another Ketan Parekh Jack Prices Now? (20-01-2024)
If you have joined late in the rally with FOMO, fears you have now are natural and you must seriously think to hedge or drastically reduce your position in stocks that has outrun its course. On the contrary if you are sitting with 2x to 4x profits, like in any investment decision, you can take some money out partially while the party is still on.
Not all PSUs are overvalued or have preformed as much as the stocks you have named. Stocks like ONGC/NTPC/Coal India/Power Grid/NMDC/PSU Banks still have legs in this PSU rally and cannot be manipulated as much its smaller peers.
Rain Industries – An oversold de-leveraging play (20-01-2024)
To be honest, Monish Pabrai’s returns in India have been DISMAL to say the least. Every tom, dick & harry investor has beaten Pabrai between 2018 to 2024.
To me it seems like he has given up trying to go CONCENTRATED in India.
Initially be bought Repco, Kolte-Patil, Sunteck & Rain.
He sold Repco (Price shot up 2x)
he sold Kolte-Patil (Price went up 3x since)
He started Selling Rain around 150 (time will tell)
The biggest problem with RAIN is the DEBT LEVEL. MR MARKET is always scared of BANKRUPTCY levels and chances.
As soon as Jagan reduces the debt levels, we will see a definitive re-rating of this company. Until then, it’s anyone’s guess.
Technically speaking, the RAIN Chart is making Cup n Handle Formation. I add heavy positions around 150 after Pabrai Exited some. (Reverse Pabrai works)
The PSU Rally- Could Another Ketan Parekh Jack Prices Now? (20-01-2024)
Well, I think you can’t compare these PSU stocks with the so called K-10 stocks. I mean, these are real companies, authentick profit making govt. companies and they do offer decent/high divident.
And as far as free flot goes, even if the majority of the shares are with the Prsident, the remaining portion are still pretty high (high equity base). A small group of people can’t manupulate these so easy. Or so I believe.
But yes, I agree the valuations are way above my expectation. I am slowly selling and regretting the next day. I sold 1000 IREDA toady (and sold the same qty earlier too, The idea was – will buy after the result. But here we go, the result doesnt justify this valuation, but we hit an UC today as well. Only consolation, I did sell those at 1 Rs below UC… hehe) and kind of expecting to regret on coming Tuesday.
Archean Chemical – Specialty Chemical Leader (20-01-2024)
ACI is Israel + 1 due to geopolitical scenarios
Jupiter Wagons Ltd (previously CEBBCO) (20-01-2024)
I compared JWL to Titagarh in all aspects in Sept-Oct and thought the same. But look where Titagarh is now while JWL is still at cost to acquire.
Stocks stuck in ASM suffer a lot.
Ranvir’s Portfolio (20-01-2024)
Hi… @Mudit.Kushalvardhan … thanks for ur kind words
I am no Peter Lynch – Obviously ( lets be fair to the great man )
WRT the depth – I do listen to and make notes of Concalls of most companies ( say – of at least 70 pc of my holdings … till I start understanding / remembering company wise business nuances ). I also read their ARs ( basically the management discussions and commentaries ). Do a little bit of scuttlebutt if the company is consumer facing. I have no special training wrt accounts ( I know the basics ). Hence, I don’t go into micro-caps where I need to go into forensic details. That’s about it
Position sizing – is important – Yes. I tend to place bigger bets ( say more than 3 pc ) and allow them to grow if the business is consumer facing or is a large cap / bigger midcaps ( it gives an emotional sense of security… In B2C – u can do a scuttlebutt. In largecaps / bigger midcaps , u can be more confident about the corporate governance. In businesses / sectors with high complexity – like Pharma ( CDMOs, Complex generics makers etc ), I tend to diversify as its impossible for me to know about all the business nuances ( beyond a point )
Increased number of stocks in my portfolio is a recent phenomenon ( last 3-4 yrs ). The more I read, the more tempted I am to buy more businesses. Plus – greater reading also makes one realise the futility of being too confident – unless one is specially talented / ready to go to greater depth
For someone who aims to do a CAGR of > 25 pc or so ( I know a lot of ppl who do it regularly ), the only option ( IMHO ) is to go in with a concentrated portfolio with greater depth of knowledge about each company
Regards
Ranvir Dehal
Borosil Limited (20-01-2024)
One day it will show up. What is the hurry?
IDFC First Bank Limited (20-01-2024)
Could you please clarify your statement about IndusInd Bank with better numbers? While IndusInd has a lower Cost to Income Ratio (CI), their Profit After Tax (PAT) is only growing at a rate of 17% year-on-year. In contrast, IDFC First is experiencing an 18% growth y-o-y, even with its high CI ratio taken into consideration.
I agree with you that IDFC First’s quarter-on-quarter performance is subdued and could be improved by reducing CI and provisions.