Posts tagged Value Pickr
IPO’s just for listing gain (20-01-2024)
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Ranvir’s Portfolio (20-01-2024)
Thank you so much for posting your portfolio. Total 78 stocks… You are awesome…
Really respect you. And on top of that your 10 year CAGR is 22%…Thats really great. After Peter Lynch, you are the only guy , whose example can be given in real time to support diversification. Most people respect concentration and also think of concentration as the intelligent way of investing and always look down upon diversified portfolio. You are a great role model for diversified guys like me.
Your contention that diversification helps expand the circle of competence and you are better prepared when time comes…is also very good observation and correct one.
I would like to ask some of my problems to you, as you are the right person…
- Even if you are full time investor, still tracking 78 or more companies must be very difficult. How you do it and how much depth you achieve while following all these companies? Whats your tracking frequency and what all you read , observe or watch , while doing tracking?
- Many concentrated investors talk about position sizing and how important it is to achieve superior returns, but most of your stocks are at 0.5% to 1.5% and still you achieved 22% cagr, so whats the secret sauce? why position sizing didnt matter to your performance?
- were you having such high number of stocks in your portfolio from last 10 years or its a recent phenomenon?
Thanks.
The PSU Rally- Could Another Ketan Parekh Jack Prices Now? (20-01-2024)
Let me honestly confess that the PSU rally especially in the Railway stocks is making me jittery.
RVNL, IRCON, IRFC, you name them, and they are rising like crazy. Over the last few months many of them have doubled.
Same is the story of a few power stocks, say IREDA.
I am nervous because much of my portfolio consists of these.
There was a story on the CMBCTV18 which highlights that in many of these PSUs, the free float is very low. In some cases even 90% of the holding is with the President.
“As the 21st century dawned, Parekh was the reigning bull of the Indian markets. K-10 stocks—Pentamedia Graphics, HFCL, GTL, Silverline Technologies, Ranbaxy, Zee Telefilms, Global Trust Bank, DSQ Software, Aftek Infosys and SSI — which were so named since they were Parekh’s favourites, were on fire. The Pentafour bull, one of the many monikers for Parekh, would take advantage of the low liquidity in these stocks, and in collusion with the promoters, ramp up the stock prices.”
I remember, there was this public issue of Crest Communications. It was going for ₹35. My friend sold it for ₹300. It went to a few thousand. Today it is ₹1.05.
One man or was it a cartel, had manipulated the whole internet stocks related world. There was Hindustan Futuristic. And so many.
I had very little money at that time. I asked a broker about Reliance. She replied “Kyun gand kharidte ho (Why should you want to buy garbage?)” It was computer/internet and media nothing else.
I understand the Railways, Defence, Power PSUs were ignored. But going up 4 times? Is it the new normal? Is it different this time?
Similarity of the arguments frighten me.
What do you say?
Ranvir’s Portfolio (20-01-2024)
Sumitomo Chemicals India Ltd –
Notes from Annual Report
SCIL is a leading manufacturer and distributor of diverse agro solutions. Also has prominent animal nutrition and environmental health as additional business units. Has a diverse portfolio of generic and speciality products in both chemicals an and biologics space. Also engaged in marketing of proprietary products of its Japanese parents. Company has a good presence in fruit and vegetable crops which are high growth areas
Offers solutions for –
Pest control
Crop protection
Rodent control
Bio – pesticides
Plant growth regulators
Fumigants
Company Infra –
Total of 05 facilities in Gujarat (04) and Maharashtra (01)
Bavnagar – Technicals and Formulations
Gajod – Metal Phosphides and Formulations
Tarapur – Technicals
Vapi – Formulations
Silvasa – Formulations
Also has 03 R&D facilities at Mumbai, Bhavnagar, Gajod
Pan – India Depots – 60
Field officers – 1500 +
200 + Brands, 700 + SKUs
15k + distributors
Exporting to 50 + countries from India
Selling in 26 Indian states
Product wise sales breakdown –
Insecticides – 43 pc
Herbicides – 24 pc
Plant growth regulators – 9 pc
Metal Phosphides ( used for fumigation ) – 8 pc
Fungicides – 9 pc
Animal Health (animal feed additive products) + Environmental Health (infectious disease control products) – 7 pc
Geography Wise revenue break up –
India – 75 pc
Africa – 6 pc
Japan – 5 pc
Asia – 2 pc
EU – 2 pc
LATAM – 9 pc
North America – 1 pc
80 pc of domestic sales are branded
30 pc of export sales are branded
India is the 4th largest producer and 3rd largest exporter of Agrochemicals in the world. India is the largest producer of Milk, Pulses and Jute. India is also the second largest producer of Wheat, Rice, Fruits, Sugarcane, Groundnut and cotton. Indian agrochemicals Industry is expected to grow at a CAGR of 8 pc from FY 23-30. In India, aprox 50 pc of area is under agriculture vs 10-25 pc as avg for most countries. If agri-productivity is improved in India, India can be a big food grain exporter vs its current share of 2.5 pc of global agri exports. At present – Indian farmers are losing about 20-25 pc of their produce to pests / disease
Avg Capex spend @ 70-75 cr/ yr. Additionally allocated Rs 120 cr to develop 5 new products in the next 2 yrs
Long term threat for the Industry – GM crops that have far greater pest resistance vs the normal / hybrid crops. India regulators have however been cautious wrt GM adoption
The China + 1 sentiment is helping the Indian Agrochemical producers to gain mkt share in export mkts. Exports from India are expected to grow at > 15 pc/yr for next 5-7 yrs. Indian companies need to invest more in Technicals manufacturing to reduce their dependence on China
Indian consumption of Agrochemicals is at 0.6 kg/hectare vs 13 kg/hectare for China and 12 kg/hectare for Japan !!!
Disc : Hold a tracking position, not SEBI registered, biased
Use of Large Language Models to understand and question stock research (20-01-2024)
Being a person exposed to ai ,llms and investing due to my job and being a healthy Investors always fascinated me can we leveraged both.
In a cost effective and experimental way due to work I was exploring into RAG systems and after using it with investor conference material of navine flourine , I was truly amazed that it actually did something in reality as I put around 20+ conference documents.
So does anyone know or tried something like this as I want some inputs as this system that I am building is currently building is good to do many type of docs but have only started less then 2 week ago with some issues and mostly solved in coding process.
So would like to discuss with the community’s over it and if is fruitful would also love to share( note I have made as a side project but have also devoted some time of company so need to ask the job company before sharing as it was a part of their poc)
As a note this is my first post as a first thread so would also love some comments also how to write better
Jupiter Wagons Ltd (previously CEBBCO) (20-01-2024)
comparing Jupiter with other rail stock, it has highest Operating margin.
Lowest Employee cost
Highest ROCE
Price comparison
It should catch up with IRCON and Texmaco in recent run up, if rail stock continue this extremely high momentum.
Disclosure: Invested.
Skipper Ltd., (Power and Water) a moat in making? (20-01-2024)
Skipper right issue. Lot of doubts i see from fellow investors here.
Reliance RE also listed on exchanges and folks could trade
Man Industries (India) Limited (20-01-2024)
Man Industries : Postponement of Board meet due to Pran Pratishtha being public holiday.
Aarti Industries – Integrated Diversified Player on Benzene Derivatives (20-01-2024)
Aarti Industries – breaking out from the stage 1 and getting in to stage 2. RS is become green on a weekly chart.
