Recently started to track this company with a token investment. Guidance from the management looks a little on the unrealistic side which was 3000 crores in FY25 but later updated to FY26 citing Covid. The numbers from December sales do not look very promising.

For the last 10 years the sales have been in the range of 20 to 30 cr. What has changed for them that the sales have doubled in the last year? Is it bcz of back to office post covid for many corporate companies driving this onetime demand?

Hello Prudo,

Kudos on the HDFC Bank info! Your posts have been very informative. In my whopping 1.9 years of stock investment journey (yeah, I’m practically a veteran now ), and since stumbling upon your blog 6 months ago, it’s uncanny! I swear, every time I read your picks, I’m already invested—apparently, I make my best financial decisions while I’m asleep or possibly dreaming of rising stock charts. Bahaha!

Whether it’s banks or non-banks, you’re definitely getting top scores from this side of the screen. Keep up the good work.

Cheers

Not the opinion I hold. (I’m just looking 2 quarters ahead rather than 6 quarters as you sugguest)

If I’m looking forward, I prefer to do a 3 or 5-year exit multiple based reverse dcf on OCF/ FCF rather than just looking at 1 year forward PAT.

My apologies, but I never mentioned that they do any forgings, or are talking about forging as their value added products. Infact, they are not into forgings yet, not sure if they were doing it earlier (although given their name, forgings business makes most sense).

By value added products, they mean stainless steel and specialized steel products, collated nails for white labeling, pneumatic nails, oil tempered wires mainly used in auto sector. Again, forging is not what they do or intend to do yet.

DIsc: Not invested, tracking.