Now, we have to study Themis Medicare seriously.
Sharing below the credit ratings of the same.

I hope you find it useful.

dr.vikas

There is other income of 9.6 Crores in Fy’25. Can anyone please explain that? I could not find any details on the same? Without the other income results don’t look great.

Ashiana is expecting reported nos to improve in H2FY25 and continued margin improvement in next few years. Concall notes below

FY25Q2

• Land prices in Gurgaon are very expensive and they are finding it hard to find commercially viable projects
• Will prefer not to launch projects for a year or two than pay very high land prices
• Gurgaon Sector 80 project will be launched in Q1/Q2 FY26. The last auction in this area was 6-8 months back and land prices had already doubled vs what Ashiana had paid
• Planned launches in FY25: Ashiana Amarah Phase V, Nitara Phase II, Ekansh Phase IV, Swarang, Amodh Phase II
• In Ashiana Malhar, will now focus on increasing realizations
• Believe they will deliver 700-750 sales and 9% PAT margins in FY25. Will start seeing margin expansion in FY26 (1100 cr. sales, 12-13% PAT margins) and FY27 (1700 cr. sales, 20% PAT margins)
• Bhiwadi sales are quite good, supply situation is good with no new builders and sales price is increasing, looking to deploy money in Bhiwadi
• Bangalore launch will take longer as they are setting up team there for the first time
• Milakpur stuck money is 3-4 cr.

Disclosure: Invested (no transactions in last-30 days)

Few points to note:

1. Volume growth from existing project is itself 6-8% per annum. So the idea of growing at 15-18% is plausible.
2. Even if they dont get any additional projects, the company is expected to grow at 15-20% as per the management for the next 4-5 years. The management has mentioned in several interviews and con calls that they expect to repay their entire debt in the next 4-5 years.
3. The compant generates over 100cr of cash from operating activities. Its credit rating has gradually improved. Therefore, it can generate ample cash and take on debt to invest in any future projects.
4. Regarding competition in C&T, its not easy as it seems. Firstly, not all municipalities are financially healthy. So, one has to really pick and choose the projects. Thats where the experience of the management becomes relevant. Recently, as per the concall, the company did not bid for the chennai WTE project due to the Chennai municipality’s bad reputation. Not just that, AWHCL has a cluster based approach that targets projects nearby existing projects, which helps to reduce costs by increasing operating efficiency.
5. If they get a go ahead to build WTE plants at Kanjurmarg from BMC. My guess is, the project could easily generate revenue upwards of 250 cr, as it would be 3-4 times of PCMC.

Right question to ask is what is a good valuation to purchase this stock.

Given these growth prospects, at what price does the stock scream buy.

IMHO, PE of 15 at EPS of FY 24 i.e 450rs is a good buying price.

What do you guys think? Would be happy to discuss valuations.

Well I would not keep KPI as a utility compant only as it has an EPC part and a IPP which is kind of utility. Now this green premium is here to stay at least for the next few years. The EPC business should boost the intrinsic valuation at least. Now the P/E has come down to 41x and there is a lot of growth lined up. Companies that have such an order book should have great PEG ratios. But even if P/E has to correct, the growth that I believe should continue can help. In other words, even if PAT goes 10x in 7 years and valuations fall to 20P/E, it would still be a 5x from current levels.