Posts tagged Value Pickr
Smallcap momentum portfolio (30-12-2023)
Your tax is on your gains, ie losing some gains as tax – so why do you worry?
To reduce the churn, I am not exiting all scrips that are out of my top 20. I am giving them some leeway. For example, this week instead of 6 exits, I am doing two only.
SmallCap Hunter : Trying to find the dark horses with triggers (30-12-2023)
2023 was a great year for the small-cap index with a staggering 47.5% returns. Statistically 2024 might be a year of consolidation. It will be tough for markets to repeat this performance for two subsequent years.
2023 was also a year of bank failures in the US. Silicon Valley Bank, First Republic Bank, Signature Bank and Credit Suisse (almost) went bankrupt. For a moment it felt like 2008. But somehow the problem was contained and was not allowed to spread to the Global Financial system.
After a 20% rally from JUL-2023 the PE for the small-cap index has climbed to 32. Let’s see what 2024 holds for the markets.
Smallcap momentum portfolio (30-12-2023)
% gain over what period?
Tata Power Limited (30-12-2023)
Pls update sheet based on Q2 FY 24 number
Dollar Industries ltd – Fit Hai Boss (30-12-2023)
Generally FMCG cos are valued highly becuase of the consistency in growth and lower cyclicality in margins. But when it comes to innerwear cos (exccpt for page) both the growth and earnings were cyclical and would probably stay same is future. So, calling this a FMCG co and justifying the FY26 P/E is a risky bet. Eventhough the management has given guidance of 2000 cr, It’s difficult for both management and investors to predict how the cycle would play out. So, we should take management guidance with a bucket of salt.
I’m not saying the guidance could be achieved. They may or may not achieve it and may even surpass margins guidance. But, we should not predict it and justify 15x 2y forward P/E to such business.
It’s a different ball game if one can invest and hold till the cycle turns around (it may happen in 6 months of 3-4years, only god would know).
It’s always better to look at alternatives while investing. As per me currently good businesses are available to buy instead of dollar. For ex. HDFC Bank, Kama holdings (Hold co of SRF Ltd), IIFL securities, Fino Payments bank, South Indian bank, Vishnu Chem, Mayur uniquoters could be better alternatives from my tracking universe.
It’s upto each one of us to look at our tracking universe and weigh current co (Dollar Ind) against them and decide for oneself.
DIsc: Just sharing my thoughts. No reco to buy or sell. Holidng some of the cos mentioned
Piccadily Agro Industries Ltd (30-12-2023)
I tried to find Indri, asked for it at 4 shops in Whitefield, Bengaluru on 24 Dec but everywhere it was out of stock. One thing I noticed that everyone knew about Indri.
Dollar Industries ltd – Fit Hai Boss (30-12-2023)
My sense is the company can do 185-190cr PAT in FY26, purely based on management’s guidance of 2000cr revenue and 14-15% EBITDA margin. Based on that, it is 14-15x FY26 P/E. Which for a well growing FMCG company with a solid brand and a structural improvement story (led by Project Lakshya) looks inexpensive. Even RoCE will improve due to improved WC cycle. But the question remains whether to trust the management on guidance because they haven’t had a great track record of delivering on guidance
Buying the pessimism: Trying to catch the bottom (30-12-2023)
Agrochemical companies and Bulk chemical companies are the only space where i am finding pessimism… But given the challenging industry situation, it may very well be justified
Praveg Ltd: Play on Indian Tourism Industry! (30-12-2023)
Issue price is 670 Rs which seems good