if you are sure that company would see through next 12-18 month without risk of default or in cas eof default , co anyways is values > current mcap , buy UPL stocks and hold. This is value investment.
disclosure: one of top holding in my pf
Posts tagged Value Pickr
UPL Ltd – global agrochemical company (23-12-2023)
Balaji Amines Opportunity (23-12-2023)
Read the recent concall…Just got confused. The latest capacity of alkyl amines and balaji amines put together is way way more than the total market size. Also Kirit Patel was heard saying that sales as well as margin will take much time coming back to its normal average, let alone the high figures in 2021-22. Does this mean, Alkyl amines will take much time to recover its business performance?
Mann’s Portfolio (23-12-2023)
You seems to forget the Dilution on account of merger
Take that and you are already at 1,000 crore Mcap
And the reason i sold isnt because i no longer believe in this Megatrend (In words of Mr. Utpal Seth sir) i.e., Brand Licensing
But its just that Now Brand Concepts is very Discovered Story i attended th concall when the participatoon used to be 10-15 shareholders
Now the count went upto 150 this Quarter and hence becoming more expensive i cant sustain my Margin of Safety beyond this
Onother hand theres creative with same Brand licensing husiness with traditional Cash cow business Funding Brand licensing infra as well as developing B2B platform
At 1000 crore Mcap
electronics are high gross margin than Fashion Segments 40% vs 15%
And the best thing is that Honeywell revenues are groqong at a staggering phase
They can easily make 65 to 70 crores of Bottom line 2 tears down the line 50-55 may be 1 year down the line and 40 this year
If im playing complete long term im getting at good 30-32x pe (A high margin business with strong ROCE, MR. Market aftwr seeong execution may give evn higher but this is base case) im getting 40+% IRR
This is my thesis
This isnt buy sale advice,
I hold a huge position here and continue to add every bit from my salary
Views are welcomed
Investment avenues with monthly fixed income (23-12-2023)
One tax efficient Systematic Withdrawal Plan (SWP) strategy is to PLAN:
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Invest a decent amount say 20L + in HDFC Corporate Bond Fund – Direct Plan – Growth or a similar option, available in the market,
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Do nothing with the above investment & wait for 3 Years, in between use Fixed deposit route, where TDS gets applicable.
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After 3Y, start SWP as per your requirement, say total expenditure is 30K per month, start two SWP, 15K in first week of month & 15K in the last week of the month.
https://www.valueresearchonline.com/funds/16109/hdfc-corporate-bond-fund-direct-plan/
Edit: Please verify the current rules for tax implications, expected returns and Risk associated with Corp bonds.
Two other options to study:
Floating Rate Savings Bonds, 2020 (Taxable)…to be held till maturity (cannot redeem earlier)
BHARAT BOND ETF
Investment avenues with monthly fixed income (23-12-2023)
The ideal solution for this problem is Annuities, where you make payments for a specified term and get fixed term payouts for life. There are various kinds of annuities and they combine elements of insurance as well (life and death benefits)
A good source to read up is here
Be careful about tax implications, the accumulation phase have wide ranging GST components.
The other option is a Systematic Withdrawal Plan with a Mutual Fund where you ride the risk but withdraw with a fixed frequency. Most MFs offer this option. Good news is that withdrawal is treated as Cap Gains so tax impact could be minimised. You do run the risks of investing.
Using FDs with quarterly interest etc is risky if you expect a fixed income and tax inefficient (with TDS deductions). Further it may not be beating inflation post tax . So income / purchasing power can vary and the retiree takes the investment risk on herself.
JTL Industries – Fast Grower at an inflexion point (23-12-2023)
Rough Financial Model
JTL Industries Ltd | JTLIND | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
Current Market Cap | 4,106.36 | |||
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | |
Capacity | 586,000.00 | 600,000.00 | 800,000.00 | 1,000,000.00 |
Capacity Utilisation | 60% | 60% | 65% | 70% |
Sales (tonnes) | 351,600.00 | 360,000.00 | 520,000.00 | 700,000.00 |
EBITDA/tn | 5100.00 | 5200.00 | 5300.00 | |
EBITDA | 129.00 | 183.60 | 270.40 | 371.00 |
Depreciation | 4 | 7 | 10 | 16 |
EBIT | 125.00 | 176.60 | 260.40 | 355.00 |
Interest | 6 | 6.5 | 7 | 7.5 |
PBT | 119.00 | 170.10 | 253.40 | 347.50 |
Tax Rate | 26% | 26% | 26% | 26% |
TAX | 30.94 | 44.23 | 65.88 | 90.35 |
PAT | 88.06 | 125.87 | 187.52 | 257.15 |
P/E | 46.63 | 32.62 | 21.90 | 15.97 |
PE on FY26 Exit Basis | Market Cap | Price | 2.5yr CAGR | Case |
25 | 6,428.75 | 375.95 | 25% | Bear |
30 | 7,714.50 | 451.14 | 37% | Base |
35 | 9,000.25 | 526.33 | 48% | Base |
40 | 10,286.00 | 601.52 | 58% | Bull |
45 | 11,571.75 | 676.71 | 68% | Bull |
Key Risks:
- Delay in execution of expansion projects
- Volatility in steel raw marerial prices
- Government capex cycle has been a massive boost to the confidence of the sector in general and company in specific – any negative developments here will reduce the growth visibility – although the company says that the demand is much higher than thew supply across companies at the moment
- Starting valuations are not cheap but if the company delivers close to what it has guided, things could be interesting
HDFC Bank- we understand your world (23-12-2023)
Could you please share the source of this info?
UPL Ltd – global agrochemical company (23-12-2023)
Agrochemical firm UPL to raise funds up to ₹4,200 crore via rights issue (cnbctv18.com)
looks like funds rising for debt payment.
Sugar Cycles: 7-8 years of losses followed by 2-3 years of super gains! (23-12-2023)
GOI to tighten screws against sugar mills violating monthly sugar sale quota; to cross-check GST data to verify actual sell.
The Department of Food and Public Distribution (DFPD) controls the monthly sale of sugar, by allocating a quota to every sugar mill as to how much sugar it can offloaded in the market during the said month. Cumulatively, it is known as the ‘monthly sugar sale quota’. The objective of this is to maintain a steady supply of sugar in the market, sufficient enough to cater to domestic demand. This also aims to check the distressed sale of sugar in the market, thereby maintaining that sugar is sold at or above the Minimum Selling Price of Rs.31/kilo set by the Government. Hence, the monthly sugar sale quota is a carefully thought policy of the Government designed to maintain sugar equilibrium in the country.
The quota was introduced at the request of the sugar mills, who had represented to the Government for the same. However, reports suggest that several sugar mills flout this quota, and sell more sugar than the quota allocated to them, which goes unreported in the system.
The Directorate of Sugar wants to tighten the loose screws. According to sources, come January 2024, the Directorate will have access to the GST data of each sugar mill to validate the sale of sugar as per the quota allocated. The data will be cross-checked to find any discrepancies.
The sources say that the process will start from January 2024, and to begin with, the December 2023 monthly sales quota will be scrutinized. The Government will take strict action against those who are found violating the sugar supply quota under the Essential Commodities Act. An official notification is awaited for the same.
Tejas Networks – Product based IT business in a favored sector? (23-12-2023)
Potential is huge!!! BSNL network which Tejas is currently upgrading for 100,000 sites to 4G under TCS consortium can then be upgraded to 5G. India being the leader of global south will also be able to capture those 5G markets, since most of those countries will not be able to expend money for expensive 5G RAN equipment and systems. Even Tejas would be able to participate in the US Rip and Replace program aggressively with this deal, once the technology is tested by the US authorities. Similarly the European markets too.