Credit card data by RBI for Nov is out. IDFC cards seem to have done well. I feel that in a few months card business should be nearing break even point. It would be nice to hear from the knowledgeable on the subject.

In my opinion there are three imminent events in H1 CY 24, which will positively impact the market perception of the bank, whenever they occur.

1. Completion of merger.

2. Reaching break even point in credit card business.

3. Infra loan book dropping below 1% of total book.

I wouldn’t put too much faith on Hydrogen/EV stories despite the press and ESG stuff. IF you believe in climate change, then reliable sources of energy is a must; the outages are now into 3+ days after natural calamities/damage. There is no renewable solution for this; only baseload from CNG and other nuclear assets.

CNG itself will end up being starter chemical for lots of industry and CBG will push its volumes higher. Short of H2 splitting cheaply by a new method for energy, CNG is actually a good space to be in the energy sector.

Well, Usha martin is a company where QoQ profit has been growing consistently for the last 5 quarters.
And MTAR Tech is one where management gave a higher guidance and then lowered it in previous qtr result citing orders getting pushed to next year.

MTAR tech getting orders in H2 will certainly help boost shareholder confidence.

Disc: Also not invested in any of those.

Marcellus has decreased their position size in aavas to 4 percent (??) from a higher number.

Aavas will probably fix the new tech and grow as per their goal of 20 percent.

The other reason for slower growth was attrition at lower levels( don’t know where I heard it) of the organisation. Apparently someone checked many branches and they were trainings everyday on the new system

The promoters are private equity firms and they need an exit sooner or later so growth will come back eventually.

The question is how soon is eventually.

OND Quarter? JfM quarter ? In a market that is bidding up anything related to real estate aavas has trended down.

The PE firms will want to do this quickly so growth may come sooner than expected for their exit.

The overhang on the price will also come due to supply from the pe firms itself.

In today’s market large promoter blocks are getting sold with no impact on price or sentiment

This window of opportunity will not last long.

Valuation wise at 3-3.5 times book it’s not cheap. The only solution is SUSTAINABLE growth. That will take two quarters of solid performance for the market to start believing them again.

Losing 2-3 good people ain’t a good sign…
Esp for Cap Steriles