cello world founder and flair founder seem to be second cousins, cello had sold its writing business to BIC but has also entered with a new brand name unomax in the writing space, also fitch has mentioned their rating as issuer not cooperating.
They also will be venturing into steel bottles and flasks and looks like both companies are competing by entering each other’s business segment.
Posts tagged Value Pickr
Flair Writing Industries Ltd – Large distributor network | Market Leader (13-12-2023)
PI Industries – Superior Business Model (13-12-2023)
Then it is a valid reason. However, this information is available. One such source:
PI_company_update.pdf (jmflresearch.com)
PI Industries – Superior Business Model (13-12-2023)
He declined to comment on this due to confidentiality agreement.
PI Industries – Superior Business Model (13-12-2023)
He declined to comment on this due to confidentiality agreement.
PI Industries – Superior Business Model (13-12-2023)
The dependence of Pyroxasulfone on revenues of PI is significant, as available all over the internet. Management declining to provide the revenue share of this molecule was not good:
(1) Huge Headroom For Growth In Pyroxasulfone Market, Expect 18-20% Growth In FY24 : PI Industries – YouTube
However, we have to accept their assessment that the market is large enough to not impact PI on face value. We have to watch this for sure.
PI Industries – Superior Business Model (13-12-2023)
The dependence of Pyroxasulfone on revenues of PI is significant, as available all over the internet. Management declining to provide the revenue share of this molecule was not good:
(1) Huge Headroom For Growth In Pyroxasulfone Market, Expect 18-20% Growth In FY24 : PI Industries – YouTube
However, we have to accept their assessment that the market is large enough to not impact PI on face value. We have to watch this for sure.
Glenmark – Will Innovation Pay? (13-12-2023)
Glenmark Pharma –
H1 and Q2 FY 24 highlights –
Adjusted financials ( adjusted for Glenmark Life’s slump sale ) –
Consolidated Sales @ 3207 cr, up 6.3 pc ( growth drivers – Europe, RoW business which were up 58, 19 pc YoY )
EBITDA – 505 cr ( adjusted for a forex life of 43 cr ), Margins @ 16 pc
R&D expenses @ 305 cr ( almost 10 pc of sales – a very promising indicator, out of this – aprox 195 cr spent towards NCE discovery program at Ichnos ( GPL’s subsidiary )
Geography wise sales breakup –
India – 1121 vs 1091 cr, up 3 pc ( however, the consumer care business was up 15 pc. Slowdown in acute therapies and divestment of some brands to Eris Life affected overall growth. Scalp and Candid continue to do really well ). Glenmark Pharma has a strong Respiratory and Derma portfolios in India
( ranked no-2 in both ). Company ranks no-5 in Cardiac market. IPM overall rank @ 14. Company has 9 brands in top 300 brands.
North America – 740 vs 753 cr, down 2 pc ( sales expected to pick up in Q3 as some important launches like – gTaytulla are lined up ). Currently, the company has a product portfolio of 165 generics in US
Europe – 599 vs 378 cr, up 58 pc ( key brands like – RYALTRIS – nasal spray , Salmex – anti asthma inhaler – continue to do well )
RoW – 732 vs 615 cr, up 19 pc ( GPL – ranks no 8 in Derma, No-2 in expectorants (cough medicines ) in Russia. Launched RIYALTRIS in Malaysia, Saudi Arabia – receiving great response. Also witnesses strong growth in Brazil, Mexico
Brand RIYALTRIS –
Currently being marketed in over 70 countries. Enjoys double digit mkt share in a lot of countries like – Czech, Poland, Australia, RSA, Italy
Glenmark’s commercial parter for RIYALTRIS is US is Hikma ( British major ). Seeing strong demand in US
Brand has completed phase-3 trials in China. NDA application to be submitted by Dec 23
Other comments –
Intend to strike at least one out licensing deal wrt the Ichnos portfolio
Intend to further enhance cash generation to reach debt free status
Entered into an agreement with Nirma Pvt Ltd to sell 75 stake in GLS ( will continue to retain 7.5 pc stake ) for a total consideration of Rs 5600 cr. Company currently has a gross debt of around 4700 cr and a net debt of around 3300 cr
GLS sale likely to be reflected in the Q3 numbers
GPL expects operating leverage to kick in across LatAm and Europe by next FY leading to expansion in EBITDA margins. Also expecting reduced intensity of R&D going forward
India business expected to pick up from Q3 onwards. In Oct, India business grew 20 pc YoY
In Q3, three injectable products are lined up for launch in US. US business should pick up pace in Q3
Aim to hit and maintain EBITDA margins in the 18-19 pc range wef H2 FY 24
Continue to see price erosion in mid single digits in US business
Company is buoyant on the branded and OTC India business going forward. Company remains on a very strong footing in Respiratory, Derma and Cardiac space. Diabetic portfolio is also doing well. Should be able to grow the topline at 12-14 pc for next 3 odd years
Company’s Muroe facility in US should go live by next year. This should also aid margins going forward
Europe business’s margins have reached corporate avg with scope for further improvement. LatAm should reach there in next 1-2 yrs. RoW is already there
My Take ( biased ) – company can report a revenue of aprox 14000 cr and EBITDA of aprox 2500 cr next year. PAT may come in the range of 1300 – 1400 cr. That may lead to significant value unlocking for the company’s stock
Disc: holding, biased, may add more, not SEBI registered
Glenmark – Will Innovation Pay? (13-12-2023)
Glenmark Pharma –
H1 and Q2 FY 24 highlights –
Adjusted financials ( adjusted for Glenmark Life’s slump sale ) –
Consolidated Sales @ 3207 cr, up 6.3 pc ( growth drivers – Europe, RoW business which were up 58, 19 pc YoY )
EBITDA – 505 cr ( adjusted for a forex life of 43 cr ), Margins @ 16 pc
R&D expenses @ 305 cr ( almost 10 pc of sales – a very promising indicator, out of this – aprox 195 cr spent towards NCE discovery program at Ichnos ( GPL’s subsidiary )
Geography wise sales breakup –
India – 1121 vs 1091 cr, up 3 pc ( however, the consumer care business was up 15 pc. Slowdown in acute therapies and divestment of some brands to Eris Life affected overall growth. Scalp and Candid continue to do really well ). Glenmark Pharma has a strong Respiratory and Derma portfolios in India
( ranked no-2 in both ). Company ranks no-5 in Cardiac market. IPM overall rank @ 14. Company has 9 brands in top 300 brands.
North America – 740 vs 753 cr, down 2 pc ( sales expected to pick up in Q3 as some important launches like – gTaytulla are lined up ). Currently, the company has a product portfolio of 165 generics in US
Europe – 599 vs 378 cr, up 58 pc ( key brands like – RYALTRIS – nasal spray , Salmex – anti asthma inhaler – continue to do well )
RoW – 732 vs 615 cr, up 19 pc ( GPL – ranks no 8 in Derma, No-2 in expectorants (cough medicines ) in Russia. Launched RIYALTRIS in Malaysia, Saudi Arabia – receiving great response. Also witnesses strong growth in Brazil, Mexico
Brand RIYALTRIS –
Currently being marketed in over 70 countries. Enjoys double digit mkt share in a lot of countries like – Czech, Poland, Australia, RSA, Italy
Glenmark’s commercial parter for RIYALTRIS is US is Hikma ( British major ). Seeing strong demand in US
Brand has completed phase-3 trials in China. NDA application to be submitted by Dec 23
Other comments –
Intend to strike at least one out licensing deal wrt the Ichnos portfolio
Intend to further enhance cash generation to reach debt free status
Entered into an agreement with Nirma Pvt Ltd to sell 75 stake in GLS ( will continue to retain 7.5 pc stake ) for a total consideration of Rs 5600 cr. Company currently has a gross debt of around 4700 cr and a net debt of around 3300 cr
GLS sale likely to be reflected in the Q3 numbers
GPL expects operating leverage to kick in across LatAm and Europe by next FY leading to expansion in EBITDA margins. Also expecting reduced intensity of R&D going forward
India business expected to pick up from Q3 onwards. In Oct, India business grew 20 pc YoY
In Q3, three injectable products are lined up for launch in US. US business should pick up pace in Q3
Aim to hit and maintain EBITDA margins in the 18-19 pc range wef H2 FY 24
Continue to see price erosion in mid single digits in US business
Company is buoyant on the branded and OTC India business going forward. Company remains on a very strong footing in Respiratory, Derma and Cardiac space. Diabetic portfolio is also doing well. Should be able to grow the topline at 12-14 pc for next 3 odd years
Company’s Muroe facility in US should go live by next year. This should also aid margins going forward
Europe business’s margins have reached corporate avg with scope for further improvement. LatAm should reach there in next 1-2 yrs. RoW is already there
My Take ( biased ) – company can report a revenue of aprox 14000 cr and EBITDA of aprox 2500 cr next year. PAT may come in the range of 1300 – 1400 cr. That may lead to significant value unlocking for the company’s stock
Disc: holding, biased, may add more, not SEBI registered
Angel One: Metamorphosis into a Fintech? (Previously Angel Broking) (13-12-2023)
Hi Mayank
I’ve shared my thoughts here Link here
Shortly then stock pealed out at 26x P/E in Apr 2022 and I see signs of exhaustion in momentum.
Partially sold. May exit fully in near future.
Some positives for next 3 years:
Co is diversifying into wealth management, PMS, lending (by partners), distribution of MFs, launching own mutual fund etc. This may more than double the profits in next 3 years, if they can maintain growth of 20% in broking business.
More importantly, with diversification, the multiples will rerate (just broking business is not valued hughly by the market) as the portion of wealth management increases. Look how 360WAM, Nuwama and Anand Rathi are trading at >30x P/E.
Although the current valuations looks attractive for the growth. Historical valuations compels me to sell. May enter if the stock price corrects or time corrects
Disc: No reco to buy or sell
Angel One: Metamorphosis into a Fintech? (Previously Angel Broking) (13-12-2023)
Hi Mayank
I’ve shared my thoughts here Link here
Shortly then stock pealed out at 26x P/E in Apr 2022 and I see signs of exhaustion in momentum.
Partially sold. May exit fully in near future.
Some positives for next 3 years:
Co is diversifying into wealth management, PMS, lending (by partners), distribution of MFs, launching own mutual fund etc. This may more than double the profits in next 3 years, if they can maintain growth of 20% in broking business.
More importantly, with diversification, the multiples will rerate (just broking business is not valued hughly by the market) as the portion of wealth management increases. Look how 360WAM, Nuwama and Anand Rathi are trading at >30x P/E.
Although the current valuations looks attractive for the growth. Historical valuations compels me to sell. May enter if the stock price corrects or time corrects
Disc: No reco to buy or sell