AGI Greenpac is a leading packaging products company that has shown a strong growth in revenue, EBITDA, and profitability in the past few years. The company has also diversified its product portfolio, expanded its market reach, and invested in innovation and sustainability. However, there are many factors that can affect the future performance of the company, such as the demand and supply dynamics, the raw material prices, the regulatory policies, the consumer preferences, and the competitive landscape. Therefore, it is not possible to predict with certainty whether the company can give 20% CAGR (compound annual growth rate) in the next five years. However, based on the historical data and the current trends, one can estimate the potential growth rate of the company using some assumptions and calculations.

One way to estimate the growth rate of the company is to use the historical CAGR formula, which is:

CAGR = (Ending Value / Beginning Value)^(1 / Number of Periods) – 1

Using this formula, we can calculate the historical CAGR of the company’s revenue, EBITDA, and PBT for the past five years, using the data from the web search results12345. The results are as follows:

• Revenue CAGR = (2281 / 1430)^(1 / 5) – 1 = 0.097 or 9.7%
• EBITDA CAGR = (488 / 307)^(1 / 5) – 1 = 0.097 or 9.7%
• PBT CAGR = (274 / 102)^(1 / 5) – 1 = 0.221 or 22.1%

These results show that the company has grown at a consistent rate of 9.7% in revenue and EBITDA, and at a higher rate of 22.1% in PBT, in the past five years. However, these rates may not reflect the future growth potential of the company, as they are based on the past performance, which may not be indicative of the future trends. Therefore, another way to estimate the growth rate of the company is to use the forecasted CAGR formula, which is:

Forecasted CAGR = (Expected Ending Value / Current Value)^(1 / Number of Periods) – 1

Using this formula, we can calculate the forecasted CAGR of the company’s revenue, EBITDA, and PBT for the next five years, using some assumptions and projections based on the current trends and market conditions. The assumptions and projections are as follows:

• The company’s revenue is expected to grow at a rate of 15% per year, based on the company’s guidance and the industry outlook24.
• The company’s EBITDA margin is expected to improve from 21% in FY23 to 25% in FY28, based on the company’s operational efficiency and product mix23.
• The company’s PBT margin is expected to increase from 12% in FY23 to 15% in FY28, based on the company’s financial management and tax benefits23.

Using these assumptions and projections, we can calculate the expected ending values of the company’s revenue, EBITDA, and PBT for FY28, and then use the forecasted CAGR formula to estimate the growth rates. The results are as follows:

• Revenue in FY28 = 2281 * (1 + 0.15)^5 = 5830 crore
• Revenue CAGR = (5830 / 2281)^(1 / 5) – 1 = 0.15 or 15%
• EBITDA in FY28 = 5830 * 0.25 = 1458 crore
• EBITDA CAGR = (1458 / 488)^(1 / 5) – 1 = 0.243 or 24.3%
• PBT in FY28 = 5830 * 0.15 = 875 crore
• PBT CAGR = (875 / 274)^(1 / 5) – 1 = 0.264 or 26.4%

These results show that the company has the potential to grow at a higher rate of 15% in revenue, 24.3% in EBITDA, and 26.4% in PBT, in the next five years, based on the current trends and market conditions. However, these rates are based on some assumptions and projections, which may not be accurate or realistic, as they are subject to various uncertainties and risks. Therefore, one should do their own research and analysis before investing in any company.

To answer your question, AGI Greenpac may be able to give 20% CAGR in the next five years, depending on the performance of its revenue, EBITDA, and PBT, which are influenced by various factors. However, this is not a guarantee, as there are many challenges and opportunities that can affect the company’s growth potential. Therefore, one should be cautious and prudent when making any investment decisions.

Hi ValuePickr

Linking threads to a few companies we have discussed earlier. Lets make these threads active and try to dig deeper into these companies.

1. Cantabil India

2. Sumit Woods

I was thinking of creating a thread on Narmada Agrobase, will share whenever I create it.

Let’s get to the log.

4th Bulk Deals Log

Date: 05th December, 2023

Links:

BSE Bulk Deals: BSE Equity : Bulk Deals

NSE Bulk Deals:

https://www.nseindia.com/report-detail/display-bulk-and-block-deals

Not sure why but NSE bulk deals is showing the deals from yesterday only. I postponed publishing the log just to make sure they were updated but it hasn’t happened.

1. Orient Greenpower

Setu securities has entered the company. I don’t find the development as interesting, but covering it because of the theme here. It is the new energy segment.

2. National Fittings Ltd

Zaki Abass Naseer has entered into the stock and propelled it to an upper circuit. He is known for picking up several successful stocks, however I read recently in some of his more recent investments he has exited very quickly, almost acting like a trader.

The company has a very healthy payout and seems to be an export oriented company, so one can definitely read up more about it.

3. Rajshree Sugar

Vishal Bipinchandra Doshi has entered the stock recently. I’m covering this because sugar prices are increasing and have gone beyond their previous highs profiting the sugar mills. Sugar businesses have an extra optionality that has opened to them in terms of ethanol in the recent years so this could be very interesting.

4. Shiva Granito Export

Two investors, Profiteus Capital Markets and Vikas Baweja have entered into this company. It is too small a company for me to get interested, but Marble and Granite companies are seeing increasing traction ever since real estate sales have shown pickup. This might be part of the same process, I would suggest you look at the Elegant Marble Buyback. I’ll link it here.

This is it for today’s log. I think the ideas this time aren’t as exciting, it has to primarily do with the NSE logs absent.

One more interesting thing I saw was that Akash Dhiman has sold some shares of Narmada Agrobase, I’ll look into this and verify how many he had bought day before and how many he sold today.

Thanks for reading the log, see you tomorrow.

AI can’t destroy vfx industry but its can help them so dont worry too much for but don’t follow small cap

AI is a powerful and innovative technology that can enhance the efficiency, quality, and creativity of the VFX industry. However, AI cannot replace the VFX artists, who are the ones who use their skills, knowledge, and imagination to create amazing visual effects. AI is a tool, not a competitor, for the VFX artists.

According to some web search results, AI is used in various stages of the VFX pipeline, such as AI-generated textures, character animation, and compositing12. AI can help the VFX artists to save time, reduce costs, and improve realism. For example, AI can generate realistic textures from low-resolution images, or create natural facial expressions and body movements from motion capture data123.

However, AI cannot replace the human qualities of creativity, artistry, problem-solving, and collaboration that are essential for the VFX industry. AI can only learn from data and make predictions, but it cannot invent new ideas or concepts, or understand the emotions and intentions of the story and the audience. AI can only assist the VFX artists, but it cannot replace their vision and judgment24.

Therefore, the VFX artists should not fear AI, but embrace it as a valuable tool to enhance their work and unleash their potential. AI can help the VFX artists to achieve more with less, and to explore new possibilities that are yet to be discovered in the way visual effects are created. AI can make the VFX industry more productive and innovative, but it cannot make the VFX artists obsolete.

Could someone please tell which is one of best mobile app for tracking stock market?

I presently use the moneycontrol app. I used to use Webull, which I really liked, but I believe it no longer supports the Indian market.

I primarily want to use it for watchlist / price and volume spikes.

Change in credit rating
Credit Rating change.pdf (698.7 KB)