I don’t know… I see nifty has come back to 20k levels again… the US bonds are easing off…

I think market will upwards slowly… will see post the FED meeting…

At macro front my thoughts

When the US, UK, China market goes down due to inflationary pressure all there will be hit at the small extent to global market too…

My reasoning : commodities, demand/supply, price

Price of commodity will get hit if the market boils down

Secondly correction of demand/supply

Lastly the price relation : if the country is the low cost producer then it’s a definite runner… in such case is India where it’s standing now…

If I have to put all this things into a tiny mustard then I would say for India to grow strong in GDP the only way is to export from India and get money into India to become 5 trillion dollar economy…

Next I think the pressure will be in US banks due to high interest rate, lending… I don’t know how banks will take this hit plus they also have covid excess…

Am quite staying away from IT, Newgen is the sole reason that I exited and am also hearing from the Newgen management that they r increasing exposure to Middle East, Egypt and other Asian countries.

To top this up…
small, mid cap has run phenomenally well this year and the valuation is not attractive and also we can see sluggishness coming in…

So now these are my reasons… I don’t see anywhere positive at short time but definitely long run Bharat is in the strong position…

Open to construcitve criticism : am just a person who collects aggregates the information and makes my own view…

If I am right it’s good for me if am wrong it’s good for me… so open to any constructive criticism and open to learn much more here…

Disclaimer : this is not a recommendation now any post in my thread is not a but or sell recommendation… am just sharing my thoughts and knowledge for educational purpose

When it comes to inflation people i keep bigger lens not just thinking that these are temporary blips

Let me tell you my thoughts

Increasing interest rates will have an increased pressure on corporate debt structure which then will have effect on the industry then it hits the economy…

Coming to India is a service oriented country and the top contributors are IT and PHARMA. These two industry have a strong base in US…

In general company who are having bad corporate debt structure will not survive long than the ones who don’t have debt… and there will be severe competition among those who wants to gain the market share with low cost production… this gives more opportunity for us at global cues to do more export and gain market share…

So I prefer to stay with domestic based companies with strong export…

Now there might a little to no correction : I don’t know but I anticipate FII will be cautious when it comes to elections, year end closure, fed hikes etc etc…

I don’t know… I withdrew funds due personal emergency as I needed for hospital….

Hello.
Let me put my investment thesis for Laurus Labs. What I like
The co is founded in 2005 and has achieved a lot in last 2 decades

1. Crossed revenue of 5000 cr
2. Market cap of 20k cr
3. Scaled up the ARV business very well
4. Ventured into other businesses like Other APIs, FDF, CDMO, Bio, Other new therapies (Immuno act, etc.)
5. CDMO business from marquee clients. Co, was able to win trust of CDMO clients . Speaks volumes about the quality of the capability and the leadership

How many cos can grow and create wealth this fast ? (question to self)

How the future looks. Lot of positives

1. Well diversified revenue streams: ARV API, Other APIs, ARB FDF, Other FDF, Bio (mostly food grade), CDMO (Most value added), New therapies (Optionality and possible new revenue stream)
2. Base is lower now considering the headwinds the co has faced last year and also at present
3. Deliveries to start for CDMO projects and ARV orders in had for 2024, 2025 (2026 ?, need to check the recent investor presentation)
4. Operating leverage to kick in considering some costs are front ended and margins to improve with contribution from CDMO business
5. More than 50 (as per my memory) CDMO projects in different stages

What I don’t/didn’t like:

1. Management not upfront about One off revenue, but now using it to their own advantage (while comparing numbers. Refer latest investor presentation)
2. Going into FDF. I thinking they are filing some Para-IV s as well. Conflict of interest with CDMO customers
3. Not sure about the management bandwidth to grow all the businesses. Not sure how well Dr. Chava can delegate the responsibilities
4. Volatility in business and margins. CDMO revenue would also be lumpy (of course). ARV deliveries also are lumpy as per me
5. IMO Valuation is not attractive even at current price
6. Last 2 years co. didn’t walk the talk. Need to see how it goes going forward

Short thesis:
The co/management has created wealth for the shareholders at very fast rate. Hunger for growth is there. Good capable management (Could be better). Could be one of the biggest wealth creators in next 15-20 years. Only time will tell

Disc: Small position initiated today. I’m opportunistic with what/when I buy/sell as per mid term estimate valuation of the co. No reco my any means

I think in general the oil reining and wars elsewhere is helping India business, our improvement in efficiency on energy,railways and infra is giving much needed boost… when China is slowing down… An most of the small businesses and consumers are now digital and more tax collection due to this…

As you said if BJP retains power then things will continue to grow… Else the treasure and forex will start to drain sooner than we expect.