@visuarchie Hello, Thanks for sharing your knowledge. I have couple of questions. Hope ok to ask.
Selection of stock – is that based on high return in the last one week?
Is there any back test being done to understand how this strategy has performed in the past?
Thanks Much.
Why does the company not give out investor presentation? I have few questions regarding the product breakup revenue.
Here I am attempting to the a brave thing in this world of investing. Brave because I do not want to talk about any stock buying ideas as of now I do not certainly not consider myself apt for the same. Further, I feel that in my own selfish way, creating a type of a journal about my mistakes will help me in the long run to avoid at least some of those.
1st and the latest –
Raymond – Bought in October sold in November.
thesis to buy – doomsday in consumption. not growing especially in apparel. Rural and Tier 2 and Tier 3 stress at very high levels because of inflation, some problem in consumption pattern due to “Adhik Mas”. Now my thought process – things will revert sooner than later, concalls of companies were positive about the same. Further, highest ever marriages about to happen in next quarter. So things should fall in line.
Raymond – Apparel plus garmenting plus real estate plus engineering plus demerger announced, debt free. trading at combined TTM PE of around 20 (adjusted for higher other income because of sale of personal care business recently).
Other things such as strong brand also present.
I remembered about the family feud between father and son but ignored it. Further, i also ignored today’s consumption pattern towards fast fashion away from traditional suiting and shirting. I always thought that Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities, such changes are slow to happen.
Now came the acquisition of Maini Precision. at the first i could not understand the acquisition because major claim by the company was to foray into “Sunrise Sectors of defence and aerospace etc.” A company doing well in traditional business why wanted to suddenly shift towards momentum rather than focus on already owned businesses.
Then came the thought that company is trying to actually do some thing or the other just to remain in limelight. Sell personal care, demerge the businesses, acquire other company and even in the past foray into real estate etc etc.
Further, the famous family feud again erupted and things started moving haywire. Hence I needed to sell it at around 5% loss. Not a big loss per say but in terms of opportunity, transaction, time invested this was a mistake to learn from.
I will ponder upon and come back on my learnings about the same.
Hello everyone. I have created a momentum portfolio comprising of 20 top stocks from NSE’s Smallcap 250 index. This pf is based on highest momentum on price change and reduced volatility. I rebalance every week. It has been a year since I have been running this portfolio and my XIRR is around 40% (I am aware that XIRR is valid above 1 year only, but posting this number as I am a week short of 1 year). My trades are done through a discount broker, hence no brokerage is applicable. I have not included statutory or depository charges. I know this will bring down the returns number slightly, but I guess these numbers are still ok. Portfolio started of as equal weighted, but since then I have let the winners run without trimming their size. This means that any new entry will have the same weightage as the stocks going out.
Rebalance is done every Monday following certain rules. If a stock is out of the top 20, but is still within the top 25, it does not get removed. This is done to reduce the churning and associated costs a little bit. Any new name that appears can enter if there is a vacancy only. If the number of entrants are more than the actual exits, then entry will be done on the basis of their ranking.
Portfolio valid for coming Monday, 27th Nov 2023.
If people are interested I can post the updates every weekend. Please note that I am doing this as a hobby and there might be some delay in changing my base list compared to when NSE does the changes on the index.
Views are welcome. Thanks.
Hello Aadi. Sorry, I haven’t followed this company enough to answer this question on how they price their products. I’ll let other members take this Q
@Pragnesh may help with this
Praveen
Amara Raja Energy & Mobility: A High Probability Wealth Creation Opportunity
The world is trying to get better environmentally by reducing carbon emissions. In order to reduce carbon emissions, the world is trying to adopt Electric Vehicles (EVs) instead of Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles. When it comes to EVs, the main cost of the car is the battery that it has in the car.
Currently, in the battery space for EVs, there is one major player “Amara Raja Energy and Mobility”. It is the technology leader and is one of the largest manufacturers of lead-acid batteries for both industrial and automotive applications in the Indian storage battery industry. Under the automotive application, they are present in both markets that is OEMs and the After Market. In both segments, they have market share of around 30%-40%. Under the industrial application, they are present in two sectors that is Telecom & UPS. Under Telecom sector, they are the leaders with 80%+ market share. Under the UPS segment (Data centre Application), their market share is 40%.
In order to make a battery, the main raw material required is Lead which is 60% of the value of the battery. 85% of the lead comes from the recycled process as it is the easiest to recycle and have a very high efficiency in recycling. They currently procure lead locally for now. In order to carry out the recycling process internally, their board has approved setting up a Greenfield lead acid recycling plant with an estimated capacity of 1 lakh tonnes p.a at a total outlay of Rs. 280 crores to be spent over the next 18 months. This will help the company comply with recycling standards whilst adopting advance technology in the most environmentally friendly manner lead recycling plant in Cheyyar, Tamil Nadu. The first phase of the plant is expected to commission by Q1FY25 which would increase the in-house recycled lead procurement. Overall, the whole plant will cater to 30% of their lead requirements.
The company seems to shift its complete focus towards raw material procurement for lead as 80% of its lead requirements have been fulfilled by recycled batteries which has become evident with its recent investment in lead recycling plant which will benefit the company in the longer run. Revenue Growth to be expected from Lead Acid Battery Business at $3BN from current $1.2BN in the next 5-7 years.
The company is also focusing to increase its revenue contribution from the New Energy Business which is catering to electric mobility and energy storage applications for which the energy requirement is mostly from li – ion battery material based on batteries recycling. For this company has been investing heavily in its R&D centres. They are trying to innovate new technologies in Li-ion battery segment which will cater to the future generation of transportation. They have signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the Government of Telangana to establish research and manufacturing facilities for lithium-ion cells and battery packs. The ‘Amara Raja Giga Corridor’ project, with an investment of approximately INR 9,500 crore in capital expenditure and new technology, aims to produce Lithium Cells and Battery Packs with capacities of up to 16GWh and 5GWh, respectively
They also want to be present globally. So they have implemented a globalization strategy that is they want to increase market share in the existing geographies. They also want to tap western geographies. Europe and North America (especially for UPS Batteries).
This makes the case of Amara Raja very strong in the coming years based on the above facts. I am highly bullish on the company which is highly possible to do very well in terms of revenue and profitability.
Happy Investing!!!
US shrimp market seems to be reviving in last 3 months, although realizations continue to be on the lower side. It looks like shrimp sector has bottomed out. Concall notes below.
FY24Q2
Disclosure: Invested (position size here, no transactions in last-30 days)
Natco management is too conservative…my guess is this yr they should do atleast 1150-1250 crore netprofit but they are being conservative by saying 1000 crore plus.
I see tremendous growth in this stock in next 2yrs, revlimid estimated sales for current yr should be in excess of 1800 cr & fy25 will be in excess of 2400 cr plus many products under pipeline.
Only cause of concern was why management was reluctant to give guidance for this dec qtr, last dec was 62 cr np and this dec mr rajeev was not sure of even 25% growth on this… so really need to watch the current qtr results
During march20 natco was available at 18pe and currently on ttm basis its available at 13pe, whereas avg pe for last 5 yrs is 26 times
Disc : Revlimid sales are just a guess estimates as management not disclosing the numbers.
Disc invested
@Surender Thank you Sir
Hi- Below links might put you on the right path: