Well according to my technical analysis, it should break its ATH pretty soon.
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Posts tagged Value Pickr
Smallcap momentum portfolio (14-06-2024)
@Sujata You can choose 10 from each. However, please remember that each one is different a hence it is not a basket of 30 momentum stocks, but 3 x 10 momentum stocks.
If your system can process 650 stocks (Midcap150, Smallcap 250 and Microcap250), then you can take Nifty 750 and remove Nifty 100 from that. Then take top 30 from that. This will be a proper 30 stock momentum pf.
Rain Industries – An oversold de-leveraging play (14-06-2024)
I guess their normal earning range will be aprox 250cr PAT and rs 4-5 Eps/ quarter…
benefit of incremental production and its margin advantage is what we need to wait and see.
Sanghvi Movers (14-06-2024)
Patience needed. It has moved 32% in YTD and 127% from last 1 year, 425% in 2 years timeframe. Wait for the needle to move if you are recent entrant.
PDS Limited – A platform for entrepreneurs (14-06-2024)
I m more eager to see on their first target which is 2.5B dollar revenue with 900-1000cr PAT.
In 2022, earlier they guided to double their revenue in 5 years (2.5B), However, now they are guiding to achieve 5B GMV by end of FY-2029. Although not all of them will translate into revenue, even if we take out the SAAS part let’s say roughly 10-20% of total GMV, still they should clock around 4-4.2B in next 5 years, which translates into revenue CAGR itself around 25%, (effectively doubling their revenue itself in every 2.5years). Added wtih PAT margin expansion comes into play bottom line improves much faster , assuming 5% at the end it should be around 1700-1900Cr of PAT at the end of 5 years.
Not sure how much of it will play out as we expect, Ofcourse the risk would be another industry level slowdown in next 5 years, which will delay their target, @dm88 ,
do you think any other risk that could play out in Your opinion, or have anyone else at the Investor day presentation has asked about it?
Note: As per their presentation, the only risk was mentioned is reputation, and in general pallak seth seems to more risk averse , they seems to manage it well so far and walking the talk. If things play out then i expect 10 bagger in next 5 years.
Sanghvi Movers (14-06-2024)
why is this stock not moving? i am stuck badly.
Focus Lighting & Fixtures Limited (SME) (14-06-2024)
Technically too, the chart is forming rounding top with higher than normal volumes. Looks like it’s in Stage 3.
Ganesh Benzoplast – Cash rich chemical storage/tank king (14-06-2024)
Thanks @PranayKhandelwal appreciate the clarification.
That means @ 75Cr. approx. 6.25Cr/throughput is the revenue and assuming either 3 or 6 throughputs per month they could make 225Cr or 450Cr per year.
Since they have assumed 3 tp per month, that is 225Cr which they are roughly saying 200Cr.
But this is the revenue at the JV company, so GBL gets revenue of 100Cr assuming 45% economic interest. Correct?
PDS Limited – A platform for entrepreneurs (14-06-2024)
I will try to summarise the minutes of Investor day meeting over the weekend.
As to which vertical will contribute how much out of the 5 Billion ambition, they said Manufacturing will be around 5%. They are betting big on Branding business and the goal is to make it a Billion dollar business so that would be 20% if they manage to grow it to 1 Billion USD. Rest 75% would be distributed between design led sourcing and SAAS. They did not give precise numbers around that and asked to connect offline for details.
For Branding, North America projections are very ambitious. They are not expecting any revenue from Branding from NA till 2025 and then 200 million in 2026, 400 million in 2027 and 800 million in 2028. So we will have to see how that plays out.
For SAAS, the more lucrative thing is the ROCE. ROCE is infinite because PDS does not invest a single penny in this business. So I don’t see this business as a margin game. It is more of a volume based game where the ROCE will be on a higher side and working capital will always be on the lower side.
Moreover they have PDS ventures through which they invest in early stage promising businesses. Right now I think 6-7% of the earnings go into this and some of their investments have already become 10x from the time they invested. So they would be strategically planning to take an exit as and when feasible. This would generate some cash in the books. The goal is to make PDS ventures self sufficient and stop feeding off the earnings of other verticals.
They are also expanding into homeware category and they already have some orders for that. So even with PAT margins stable at 5%, it is going to be a huge boost to the bottomline. Let them hit their target of 5-5-5 first and then we can see where things go beyond that.
Ashiana Housing – Banking on Tier II and III towns! (14-06-2024)
Ashiana has crossed most of their peak metrics and are now expecting further scaleup with improved profitability (plans to reach 15%+ PAT margins in 3-years). Concall notes below
FY24Q4
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FY24 launches: 10 projects (4 greenfield + 6 phase extension in existing projects) accounting for 23.19 lakh sq.ft vs 29.46 lakh sq.ft in FY23
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Targeting 2000 cr. presales in FY25 and 25-26 lakh sq.ft of constriuction. Plan to launch remaining phases of Amarah in FY25 and hopefully first phase of Sector 80 (Gurgaon) in Q4FY25.
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Current pipeline: 12.65 lakh sq.ft in ongoing projects + 80 lakh sq.ft in future projects + 21.3 lakh sq.ft in land (excluding Milakpur) ~ 114 lakh sq.ft
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Ashiana Amarah
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March 2024: Phase 3 (224 units; 3.77 lakh sq.ft; 440 cr.; 11,671 / sq.ft) – 55% higher price
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April 2023: Phase 2 (224 units; 3.77 lakh sq.ft; 283 cr.; 7,507 / sq.ft) – 22% higher price
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October 2022: Phase 1 (224 units; 3.95 lakh sq.ft; 243 cr.; 6,152 / sq.ft)
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Launched Ashiana Amarah Phase 3, Nitara (Jaipur; premium housing), One44 (Jaipur; premium housing), Vatsalya (Chennai; senior living) in Q4FY24
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Delivered Ashiana Aditya in Jaipur and Amantran in Jaipur which had cost overruns and generated lower margins but good ROCEs as they in JV
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See continuous margin improvement in subsequent years and want to reach PAT margins of 17-18%. Indirect costs as % of sales should reduce significantly in FY27
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Focusing more on senior living which is higher margin and less competition. Looking to grow to 900-1000 units in 3-4 years vs 354 now. Have two term sheets for senior living in Bangalore right now (50% failure rate generally). Panvel senior living termsheet fell through
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IFC: 1st platform has Ashiana Daksh (almost complete), Amarah, Vatsalya. Money from 2nd platform is yet to deployed. IFC debenture pays IFC around 30% of net project cashflow
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Crossed economic ROEs of 15% in FY24 and will cross reported ROEs of 15% in FY26
Disclosure: Invested (position size here, no transactions in last-30 days)