Hi Goofy,

You actually have hit my achilles hills . This is one of the biggest regrets I have which is not to bet bigger in those stocks at that time. But we all are wiser in hindsight.

For example, 5000 (hypothetical number) in GAEL around 9-10 years back became 90000. 1000 (again hypothetical )in Firstsource became 17000. Investment of 20k in Berger paints became 2.20 Lakhs. We do talk about it as well but nothing you can do actually.

These all stocks that you mentioned are my early investments. At that time, we just got married and were in mid 20s. Didn’t have slightest of the ideas about investing, so we were extremely cautious and fearful of what would happen if we lose money and therefore size of investment were lower.

We also purchased our first home in 2016 and at that time I liquidated some part of my portfolio and some of them were even more multibaggers such as Can Fin homes (bought at 20 and sold at 2800).

When I look back, I realised that I am not doing that poorly when it comes to assessment and stock selection. I mean 27% XIRR over 10 years is not a small achievement in my view . Therefore, by looking at what we missed, I have now learnt that if I am convinced about the idea and valuation looks cheap, I will go for big bet. All my recent investments where I have conviction such as PDS, DP wires, Panama Petrochemical, Guj Themis etc., I have invested large amounts (the max which I could have afforded). Hopefully they become multibaggers too in next 10.

Nice portfolio, excellent quality stocks and 35% returns are very good as well.

I am a great fan of Howard Marks and Peter Lync. I learned the art of rotation in stocks and making much higher returns from Peter Lynch. This gives you Portfolio high velocity to move up.

Howard marks taught me about human behaviour cycles, liquidity cycles and business cycles. Most important facts as stock prices are all about liquidity, exuberance, fundamentals and sentiments hence buy and forget is a myth.

Portfolio is yours hence I will not hesitate to liquidate my all holdings in 10 minutes in case of black swan event is anticipated. Like we are going to face in 2024.

Making money in stock markets can be via

1. Buying stocks below intrinsic value, forgotten stocks, easy to accumulate however physiologically its very tough to see you laggard when whole market is rising. Alpha created is very high when Mutual funds, DII and HNI run for stock. This is strategy i have followed till now and executed. Returns are in range of 7x to 3X on minimum. However I am very selective on keeping stock in portfolio in long term. Always looking for companies entering tough times due to some localized issues which are one off. Build large positions and sell and portion at 2-3X levels and keep it till growth vision is there for atleast 2 years else move out.

SHIL 75 to 490, TAMO from 68 to 540, apollo from 82 to 240, Vodafone from 3.5 to 12, KPR mills from 800 to 3400, PCBL from 83 to 240, AB Cap from 54 levels, still holding laggard. another laggard in portfolio is Aditya Birla Fashion, bought at 140 levels and seen stock coming down from 360 to 185, this is a long portfolio and my conviction says it is dirt cheap, holding laggard.

Force motors is a classis example, in PF from 2016 have seen stock from 2300 to 5100 , going down to 600 in 2020 and now at 4000. Only difference is my quantities are 5 times and surprisingly annualized return on investment over 7 year period are healthy as last buy was at 1300 levels. So making money can be possible with all kind of strategies but u need to be careful of what u are doing and follow discipline.

2. Buying Hot stocks where run is continuing, need to be careful of exit else returns with holding period will disappoint.

See example of Dmart, HLL, Britannia from last three years. No one has done anything, they are still excellent business, quality management, market leaders. Dmart always traded at above 100 PE stock raced from 800 to 5400 and now at 3600. Excellent results each quarter. Only change in PE correction time correction in valuation. So

Thanks for sharing such an elaborate note on your portfolio allocation ideas.

I would love to hear more about your position sizing strategy (if you have one already) since I see that many of your multi-baggers like CCL, Berger, Gujrat Ambuja etc had lower allocation.

Cheers
Goofy

Just curious, since u r invested from 10 years in NMDC, why your handle has the name newbie? You seem to be a seasoned investor.

Thanks a lot for this insight really feels like company management walks the talk.