I’m not sure if people stopped eating ice creams in summer or ice cream makers are not using mold tek products? Is this one summer phenomenon? Anyone tracking this for long time can comment?

October 2023 update:

India’s overall exports(merchandise and services combined) during Oct 2023 is estimated at USD 62.26 Billion exhibiting positive growth of 9.43% over October-2022.
Merchandise exports during Oct-23 is USD 33.57 Billion compared to USD 31.60Billion in Oct-22, positive growth of 6.2%.
Services sector export for Oct-23 is estimated at 28.70 Billion compared to 25.30 Billion USD during Oct- 22.
Overall imports during October 23 is estimated at USD 79.35 billion exhibiting positive growth of 11.10% over OCT-22.
Overall trade deficit during April-October reduced by 35.86% from USD 89.86 Billion USD in 2022 to 57.14 Billion USD.

Coffee exports growth of 9.6%for the month and 8.8% till Oct.

Rice exports reduced by -19% for the month(3rd consecutive month of degrowth)

Marine products exports grew by 9%.(3rd consecutive month of + growth)

Iron ore exports continue to grow significantly on a low base of last year.

Ceramic products and glassware exports up by 50% for the month and 29% so far in FY24.

Pharma exports grew 30% for October month and 13% so far in FY24.

Chemicals exports remained flat during the month.

Electronic goods exports are back to positive growth after dipping during last month.

Cotton yarn/fabs grew by 38% during the month , RMG of textiles remains negative.

If one can analyse:

1. Trend
2. Price behaviour and Price action along with demand and supply through volumes. Then I think there is no need of any fancy indicators which are available these days for technical analysis.

Hello Pragnesh
really insightful read. Something I’d like to improve upon are

1. Patience: Patience to hold the stocks / cos and wait for the thesis to play out
2. Behavioural Bias: Ability to hold stocks that are not performing well, instead of switching to the ones that are performing.

However It’s going to be hard to control these behavioural traits. I need to experience different things to build trust in them. On one side I see people using technofunda and investing in quality stocks that are moving up and making good returns with proper risk management. On the other side there are people like you who has guts/stomach to hold stock through downturn and get good returns on the other side.

I’d like to ask your opinion is this regard

1. Have you ever felt you could’ve made better returns by adding technicals to you fundamentals to improve buy or sell decisions ? Or do you just buy and just track them without worrying about what happens in next 3-5 years (your example of alkyl amines, Paushak ) ?
2. I feel all stocks are cyclical at varying degrees like shallo, deep etc. Even if the co. is not cyclical, the market is cyclical in terms of the valuation it assigns to a stock. Some stocks doesn’t give any return for next 5 years (alkyl could be one). So, how do you deal with these situation ? Don’t you sell a stock even if it goes to 100x P/E or 15-20x P/S ? Is there a acceptable level of this exuberance for you ?

Thanks
Praveen

Hello Aadi. Exactly the reason you’ve mentioned. Let me elaborate

If a co buys Raw material at some x price. Later if the raw material price falls, the end product price also falls. So, if the co is carrying Raw material inventory bought at higher prices, the gross profits would be lower.

There’s something called inventory gains. Let me explain with example of some cos.
If you know Ambika Cotton and Sportking India, they manufacture and sell cotton yarn. They generally carry some raw material (cotton) or finished good (Cotton yarn) as inventory on their balance sheet. They can sell this in market at higher prices when the price of cotton yarn cotton goes up. You can check how they made abnormally high profit in FY22 because of this reason.
Hope this answers and you don’t mind I took the liberty to answer the question directed at Pragnesh. @Pragnesh bhai, please feel free to add your points as well,

Thank you
Praveen