I wouldn’t invest personally at these valuations. But great companies keep throwing positive surprises.

Also, I think relative valuations are in play. When many cable making and electrical goods making companies are trading at north of 50 PE and larger ones have mcap of close to 1 lakh crore, Titan doesn’t appear very expensive.

@KUMOD_KUMAR_GUPTA @Shubham_Dilawari

Many investors try to connect to their employees on call or LinkedIn to get to know real situation what’s happening in the Company

There might be some internal issues due to sales or growth or salary or handling responsibilities

Which creates a negative impact on directors and firm

But When a person leaves and another one is joining , vice versa Same work will be performed

( I m accepting experiences from old employees was not good but past is history and end of day , Company keeps growing and work keeps happening ) (logical side)

If I think about future

If Major Red Flag will be there , it will be seen in coming quarters( u look 8 quarter results before selling any stocks , warren buffet one quote said look for 5 year avg number or something )
, it will good for management to learn from red flag if some big mistakes happen and rise up again

Paint industry is growing double digit in percentage for next decade

Mr Sanjay Agarwal and Apoorv Agarwal will not destroy their hard work from so many years they have took to built these business

I think they are Only struggling to gain market share and sales from my view rest no issues in company

From previous survey , shopowner told me they are bunch of Finance Guys

New Person is also CA , this shows similarities and lack of Marketing boost from management as finance guys cannot do good Marketing,

I have worked in Nobroker Startup company , I know how speeches are given when u struggle to sales and that’s what I found in two /sec video in video in YouTube that Sanjay Agarwal Boosting employees to push this product like typical Sales company ( no negative reviews )

My views are totally Biased One can ignore

Sirca has shown good Results this quarter

It is good debt free company , buy and hold forever type , less risky small cap other than others and easy to understand business

My theory is mutual funds are not buying due to overall Indian market share has less captured by them

Pls happy to ignore if you find something offensive

Discl : invested ,

Yes I agree on all the points, Valuation is what i was not comfortable with, I asked myself would i be buying KPIT at this price and the answer was NO so left it, i rode the wave and i am out , it was a difficult decision, the day after i sold it i was cursing myself now that i have to pay 10% LTCG tax, so basically i sold for 10% below the market price

Hospitals –
Disclosure :
Hospitals entered my investment universe currently with improvement of ROIC at the company level across the board mainly because of the increase in “mature cohort” as compared to the “new cohort”. Off course I missed large wealth creation opportunity when ROIC moved from single digit to ~ 25% but as I keep mentioning on this thread, that’s not my playing field. I believe the runway for growth is large and if I enter at right valuations, i can find a suitable long term investment candidate
Also, i find this sector easy to analyse as compared to other sectors where I can apply my mind and curate my own investments thesis from large amount of material already available on the topic
Having said that, i am not looking to take any positions in near term but be ready with my thesis if opportunity comes in future

Chapter 1 – The Starting Point
To understand the business strategy across various hospital chains I was looking for a starting point which is simple yet very powerful to accommodate all nuances of the business. Something very fundamental where I can feed all information I read at one end and formulate investment thesis from the other end. Thanks to Jana Vembunarayan (author of the blog – Seeking Wisdom), i think I have found a starting point which I can use to understand business strategy across listed universe. My starting point is a group of 3 formula which are at the heart of the hospital business

1. ROIC =

( ARPOB/ Cost per Operating bed) * ( Profit per operating bed / ARPOB )

2. Operational REVENUE =

ARPOB * No of beds * utilisation

3. ARPOB = f ( price, patient profile, case mix, throughout/ALOS )

In the next part, I will expand on these 3 equations and try to detail my thoughts on the strategy of one of the hospitals using them. Also, in coming days, i am planning to go through transcripts of all listed hospitals and see if I can build any meaningful investment thesisx keeping these 3 anchors

**Techno Electric Concall Notes

Order Book

H1= Rs 611 Cr + Smart Meter order 536 Cr+ Transmission Order 288cr = 1435 Cr
They are L1 for orders worth 3550 Cr.
Pipeline bids = 5000 Cr

Management has given revenue projections as follows

FY 24 = 1800 Cr
FY 25= 2500 Cr
FY 26 = 3000 Cr

EBITDA Margin @ 13%

Segment wise Projection

FGD business to be Subdued , growth to come from Smart meter, transmission and data center business.

Order book projection

FGD = 1450 Cr
Transmission = 3000 Cr for 3-5 yrs
Smart meter = 2000 Cr every year.
Got 1 order from J&K for 2.5 Lakh meters worth 536 Cr.

Data Centre Capex Update

24 MW IT load
Civil work completed
Invested 220 Cr
1st phase by 2024 March

• Significant interest in developing DC in JV model from partners .

• Smart meter target of 1 mn meters/year

Cash in books = Rs 1500 Cr approx Rs 140/share

Data Centre rental approx 80-110 $ /KVA or 90-100 lakh INR /MW.
Cost of data centre approx 5 mn/MW .

All in all very bullish commentary from the management .
With a BOE calculation based on the management projections it can double in next 3 yrs from even current levels.