is there anyone going to Saturday palnt visit from Bareilly? I would also join…
Posts tagged Value Pickr
Sharda Cropchem – Can it get into indian market in a bigger way? (24-10-2023)
Another bad set of nos from Sharda, they continue facing inventory issues and sales returns. Sales declined by 20% and they reported 28 cr. loss this quarter. Some of their formulations saw price drop upto 70%, with their overall portfolio witnessing price drop of 45%. The most interesting and weird part was they had a volume growth of 20% this quarter! Concall notes below
FY24Q2
- Q2 sales returns: 70 cr.
- Q2 inventory hit: 13 cr. (84 cr. in H1FY24)
- Volumes picked up in Q2 (19.7% YOY, 18.8% in agchem and 30.3% in non-agchem) but have been hit due to lower realizations (>40% price drop)
- Witnessing good demand in Q3, but prices are expected to revive slowly as global capacity and inventory is very high
- For Q2, overall volume are (+)20%, price & product mix change (-)45%, currency exchange (+)5%
- Gross margin breakup: EU (34%), NAFTA (5%), LATAM (28%), ROW (45%)
- H1FY24 Capex: 217 cr. (400-450 cr. in FY24)
Disclosure: Invested (position size here, sold shares in last-30 days)
Yash Pakka – (Previously Yash Paper) – Rising from ash (24-10-2023)
Not updated as of now…
HIL – Eco (onomic) friendly way to play rural prosperity in India (24-10-2023)
This was addressed in one of the post earnings interactions last year. Majority of the roofing business is asbestos based. They didn’t see this to be an immediate threat, as in rural sector – there are no other alternative products available which are as cost effective, with high durability and high longevity. However they are the only company which has a strong non-asbestos based roofing product (Fortune brand). WIth some more cost efficiencies, they intend to make it most cost competitive and would be positioning it as the replacement for asbestos based product. So should not impact as much.
Flooring, Polymer and Building solutions business were newer businesses and meant to have a higher growth rate as compared to the legacy business. Also its in line with their aim to becoming a ‘One stop solution; provider.
However the downside in such cases is managing the supply chain for multiple businesses and ensuring raw material availability, etc. In case of a unforeseen geopolitical event causing raw material scarcity, can result in headwinds for the business. Something which impacted the flooring business last year.
Power grid – a superior alternative to Invits (24-10-2023)
Hi Mayank, thanks for the feedback! The main reason that RTM is a large part of revenue is that TBCB was introduced only in 2011, while many of the current transmission projects run by Powergrid were commissioned earlier. Also , even now, the government uses RTM route for many large or sensitive projects and also when they was to speed up the commissioning.
From the annual report, they state 7k ckm of transmission lines and 30k MVA transformers are the aggregate TBCB assets. Overall transmission lines are 174k ckm and transformers are 500k MVA. So, 94%~96% of assets are under RTM at the moment.
The TBCB route would have reduced dependency on CERC tariffs, but faces different kinds of risks, such as very high maintenance or cost inflation. In the RTM model, it is “cost-plus”, so this risk is not material. Powergrid is pursuing both types of projects. The company’s MD mentioned during the last concall that Powergrid is targeting to win 50% or more of all TBCB projects until 2032. However, he also mentioned stiff private competition, with 5~8 other bidders competing for the contracts.
However, going forward, I’m not sure whether TBCB share would increase. In the current “work-in-hand” projects, 74% of them are RTM and 26% are TBCB.
RACL Geartech Limited (24-10-2023)
Hi Divyansh
Good to see you capture RACL strengths in slides.
How about you taking the lead in capturing the RACL Stock story at VP where other RACL veterans like @ayushmit and team can also help refine. Let us know
Please update your VP profile with relevant details. Saw Latent Advidors headlined, is that your firm – then would encourage to include links in profile.
Power grid – a superior alternative to Invits (24-10-2023)
Nice Analysis!
Even though its doing 45% of the total power transmission in India, and with 85% of inter-regional capacity – why is the “Tariff based competitive bidding” still less than 10% of its revenue?
I understand profitability might be lower in this revenue model but would it not also indicate that its able to beat competition and gain market share. Correct me if wrong, but this is the only way i see it can break from the dependance on the CERC tariff regulations every 5 years…
Shakti Pumps – solar shakti (power)! (24-10-2023)
Can any body who has technical know how advise regarding the significance of these patents and potential products or revenue which Company can generate in future or outcome of theses patents vis a vis existing technology…
Simple strategy with back-test results (24-10-2023)
Thanks for the write up. I completely agree with you. This was in no way a recommendation to solely use this method to invest in stocks, rather I was intrigued with the simplicity of the method and wanted to share with the group the results I got with back-testing.
Over the past years, I learnt and again that with my experience in the market, that there is no simple way or a defined way to make profits. I now normally use the best of the both worlds – technical and fundamental to invest. Technical analysis such as 52 weeks high, ATH, stage analysis, MM trend etc. gives me the ideas about the stocks which are in momentum and looking good technically which means that all the expectations are already built in the price. This is kind of stock screener for me. Once I have few ideas, then I evaluate all those stocks independently on my own valuation template which I have built over the years to find out if the stock is over-valued or under-valued along with many other parameters such as EVA, ROIC, reinvestment rate, ROIIC etc. Acquirer’s multiple is one of those parameters. This further refines the universe for me. After that I do some bit of qualitative research to understand the business and management quality and outlook. If the business is simple enough to understand, management is capable and it has good clientele and good competitive advantage, I then invest in that stock and then forget about it until technical charts give me major red warnings or sales / OPM starts falling down.