Hi,

Is anyone tracking Refex Industries?

Sharda Motors gave a breakout above previous all time high of 950 ( high of 954 in Dec 2021 and high of 949.90 in Sep 2022) and few weeks back in Sep 2023 with a big bullish weekly candle and went on to post a fresh all time high of 1101 in Sep 2023. Since then it has been in a corrective mode and came down and retested the breakout zone of 950 twice, by posting swing lows around 940 and closed last week at 976.

Usually post multi year and all time high breakouts, there are retests, often multiple retests and consolidation for few weeks, months before stock price starts taking off again. Retest and consolidation is the pattern happening in Sharda motors currently. Note the 10 week EMA in dotted blue line providing support to the stock price during corrections. (disc: invested and views may be biased)

Sanghvi Movers: Daily Chart

• After a failed HnS pattern and brilliant upmove, now it seems to have formed a Flag and Symmetrical triangle/Pennant pattern and is breaking out.

Safe to assume Bullish bias ahead

@Pranav_Valueinvestor

I don’t track Jindal stainless fundamentally but the chart presents some interesting patterns and hence posting it here. (disc: not invested, no views)

Near term it has been consolidating in a triangular formation. Need to see which side it breaks out and whether it is a genuine breakout or a false one. Results have been good, so need to see how it reacts next week.

More interesting aspect from learning point of view for me was the earlier breakout above March 23 high of 329 which happened in June 2023. This was a nearly 3 months consolidation below 329 after which stock price broke out above the swing high of 329. This provided a good entry point for someone interested in swing trade.

Even better entry was a “cheat entry(shown in solid blue small horizontal trendline) ” ( a term described by Minervini) when stock price broke out above a few days tight consolidation ( VCP) on 7th June 2023. This could have provided an initial entry and then one could have added more on clearing of 329. ( Or could have devised some strategy to suit one’s own trading style)

Stock price has given nearly 50% appreciation since June 2023 . Also note the nearly 12 days tight consolidation near the breakout zone of 329. This was a chance for those with a keen eye to get into the stock, and the chance lasted nearly 12 days.

The chart posted below is of a daily time frame. Something similar can happen in stocks which break out on a longer term time frame. Say in weekly chart, or monthly chart if there is a multi week or multi month breakout, stock price can oscillate above and below breakout level for a few weeks or months respectively. That is the time to do some homework, look at fundamentals wherever possible and then take a call.

Yeah, it’s difficult when management doesn’t know how the quarter will pan out even half-way into the quarter. Generally, the guidance lately has been a bit far out. Large part of capex is debt funded, and if Sales don’t pick up and financials will be strained. Midway of FY 25 (i.e., 12 months from now) things should be absolutely clear.