Does anyone did calculations that HALS series will contribute how much cr. revenue when completely rolled out in FY25 or FY26?

I just wanted to understand the recent 2 capex which they are doing 1) Increased MEHQ capacity by 50% & these HALS series will contribute how much in top line? Say FY23 they did 936cr. in topline, what can we expect by FY25 due to these 2 capex ?

KCP sugar industries (KCPSUGIND)…anyone ?
Views ? if Anyone has studied ?

Notes of Management Interview (20.10.2023):

Volume Growth:

Jindal Stainless is optimistic about its volume growth for FY24. Despite challenges in the export market, particularly in Europe and the US, the company managed to maintain decent volumes in the last two quarters. This was achieved by pushing volumes in the domestic market and introducing high-strength grades.

Mr. Mantri mentioned that they expect a volume growth of more than 20% for FY24. This is based on the current run rate and their ability to balance between the domestic and export markets.

Exports:

In the previous quarter, exports were down to 13% due to reduced demand in Europe and the US. However, they expect exports to pick up in the fourth quarter. The overall target is to achieve a 15% mix through exports for the year.

Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization (EBITDA) per ton:

The guidance for EBITDA per ton remains between 19,000 to 21,000. The company is currently at the midpoint of this range, with an EBITDA close to 20,000.

Indonesian Plant:

Jindal Stainless is considering selling its Indonesian plant. The decision comes as the business model in Indonesia became unviable due to significant anti-dumping duties imposed by Europe and the US. The company is exploring various options, including divestment or selling part of the assets. The exact value and timeline for this are yet to be determined.

Debt Reduction:

The company has been successful in reducing its debt. The initial guidance for the closing debt of FY24 was between 5,400 to 5,500 CR. However, due to working capital optimization, which freed up 500 to 600 CR cash, the expected closing debt for FY24 is now around 4,700 CR.

Jindal Stainless (Hisar) Ltd (JUSL):

JUSL operates as a tolling business, and its EBITDA is expected to remain stable at around 800 CR.

Promoter Pledge:

The issue of promoter pledge was addressed. Currently, the pledge stands at 77.5%. Mr. Mantri mentioned that all banks, except one, have approved the removal of the pledge. He is hopeful that by the end of the calendar year, the pledge issue will be resolved.

Dividend:

Jindal Stainless has been consistent in paying dividends for the last three quarters, which has been positively received by investors.

Disc: Invested

Really good write up on BMW!

I have few questions and it would be great if you can help me with it.

1. Sales have been on a downward trajectory post 2018. It peaked out at 948 Crs and then it’s been going down. Is there a cyclicity to this business like th entire Steel industry ? If not then what is the reason for sales going down ?
2. Dependency on Tata steel for majority of their revenues is a big risk. There is almost 100% client concentration here. Does Tata steel have any other vendor for servicing ? Usually bigger companies tend to have multiple vendors to diversify the risk of depending on just one.
3. Are 23-24% EBITDA margins sustainable on a long term basis. If not then what are the sustainable margins.
4. Company still has some debt on the books. Why is it giving out dividends? Most of the dividends go to the promoters since they have 74% holding. Do they not have any plans of going debt free ?
5. What is the estimated topline for the next 3-5 years ?
6. Are they planning to reduce their dependency on Tata steel and add other clients ?

Thanks in advance !