@nithin_Shenoy – Great detailed writeup on Sadhana’s business. With all expansion’s in place, is it fair to factor in 10X revenue to about 1,500 Cr?
Posts tagged Value Pickr
HealthCare Global – the value unlocking story (15-10-2023)
Interesting question; incidentally no straight answer . Management change is always Binary “0” or “1”.
How in case of HCG this becomes more interesting:
Pro’s for new management:
- Tailwinds in the sector.
- M&A opportunities (outgoing management has initiated the process)
Cons for new management:
- Frequent change in ownership might be demotivating for the staff.
- Technology upgradations might require deep pockets & swift actions.
- Competition from Multi Speciality of hospitals : Most of established players are either opening or expanding Oncology department at their sites.
So no straight answer, trust this gives some insight.
Disc : Existed recently, considering risk / reward in HCG v/s Peers
Piccadily Agro Industries Ltd (15-10-2023)
Homegrown Single malt market is picking up quite fast. While globally market for single malt whiskeys is is expected to grow at 4.7%, in India, growth is 35%. Its primarily due to culture among youth which is much wider prevalent compared to earlier times and also the migration of people who were used to blended whiskeys. I see existing growth to continue/better for atleast next few years. Few data points:
Aarti Pharma Labs (15-10-2023)
Do we have any other variant perception playing out other than the special situation of Demerger. Considering 50%+ of its business is Caffeine and Xanthine derivatives, does it deserve a higher PE as it is more of a consumer proxy than a Pharma company?
Pratik’s Portfolio – Review (15-10-2023)
As per the investor presentation posted by company. They expect total revenue from all three segments for 2024-2025 at Rs.2,030 Cr. Am I missing something?
Despite that with Rs. 270 projected EPS for FY25, its still is a great buy provided they can deliver. There is a lot that they are trying to chew in my honest opinion
Sudarshan Chemicals: 3rd largest pigment manufacturer globally (15-10-2023)
Hi,
Just wanted to highlight below points from recent earnings call –
Consolidation happening among top players in the pigment industry as per latest sudarshan concall. Attaching the concall snippets. Just relating this to edward chancellor’s capital returns – As profits collapse, management teams are changed, capital expenditure is slashed, and the industry starts to consolidate. The reduction in investment and contraction in industry supply paves the way for a recovery of profits. For an investor who understands the capital cycle this is the moment when a beaten down stock becomes potentially interesting.
This complemented with many new big players entering paint industry(Grasim, JSW) can be a good tailwind being a domestic market leader(~35% market share)
Hitesh portfolio (15-10-2023)
HI Hitesh Sir, I have learnt a lot by reading from your reply. I can’t explain it in words. You are doing a fantastic work guiding people.
Sir, do you know any book to understand the demand and supply in charts. I feel it helps sometime to study demand and supply.
Shivalik Bimetal Controls Stock Story (15-10-2023)
Need for accuracy in Current measurement:
OEMs require higher accuracy and redundancy in current measurement comes due to safety, regulatory and performance needs. The safety requirement comes from the ISO26262 standard and current measurement is categorized as ASIL C. What it means is that the shunts must not provide inaccurate results in the operating range of -40°C – 80°C. This would mean that the shunt should not expand/contract based on temperatures, variations in current. The value of resistance should not change beyond an acceptable tolerance over a 15 -20-year lifespan.
The regulatory requirement comes from Advanced Clean Cars II – California Air Resources Board and the Euro 7 for zero Emission vehicles. The standard wants to ensure that the certified range and the end-of-life criteria are stringently met. Thus, BMS algorithms such as State of charge, State of health calculation must be met more stringently. This is creating more demand for accurate shunts.
Performance needs by the OEMs are also driving for accuracy in the current measurement which is an important input for various range algorithms of the electric vehicles.
How the dominant player’s ambition is creating some changes in the supply chain.
Originally ISA had a dominant role in providing shunts to Tier1s who would further package it into their embedded system and provide it to the customers. However since 2018-19 onwards ISA had a more ambitious goal of bypassing the tier-1 and providing the current sensor modules to the OEM’s directly
The have come out with a series of shunt modules ( IVT-S Series • Isabellenhütte ) which puts them in competition with their original customers. This is where SBCL gains prominence as Donald has explained in the post above. For OEMs the order of importance for shunts will be Accuracy – Reliability – Cost and from what I know Shivalik shunts are able to clear the accuracy and reliability hurdles and are probably the lowest cost producer of the Shunts.
As the regulations become more stringent, by 2025-30 we will have a large number of EV launches, the demand for shunts would spike during that period and hopefully Shivalik will benefit from the tailwind.
Disclaimer : Biased as I work in an Auto OEM and I have just provided my observation. We will also have to see how the supply chain dynamics play out between OEM, TIER-1/2/3
Shivalik Bimetal Controls Stock Story (15-10-2023)
Need for accuracy in Current measurement:
OEMs require higher accuracy and redundancy in current measurement comes due to safety, regulatory and performance needs. The safety requirement comes from the ISO26262 standard and current measurement is categorized as ASIL C. What it means is that the shunts must not provide inaccurate results in the operating range of -40°C – 80°C. This would mean that the shunt should not expand/contract based on temperatures, variations in current. The value of resistance should not change beyond an acceptable tolerance over a 15 -20-year lifespan.
The regulatory requirement comes from Advanced Clean Cars II – California Air Resources Board and the Euro 7 for zero Emission vehicles. The standard wants to ensure that the certified range and the end-of-life criteria are stringently met. Thus, BMS algorithms such as State of charge, State of health calculation must be met more stringently. This is creating more demand for accurate shunts.
Performance needs by the OEMs are also driving for accuracy in the current measurement which is an important input for various range algorithms of the electric vehicles.
How the dominant player’s ambition is creating some changes in the supply chain.
Originally ISA had a dominant role in providing shunts to Tier1s who would further package it into their embedded system and provide it to the customers. However since 2018-19 onwards ISA had a more ambitious goal of bypassing the tier-1 and providing the current sensor modules to the OEM’s directly
The have come out with a series of shunt modules ( IVT-S Series • Isabellenhütte ) which puts them in competition with their original customers. This is where SBCL gains prominence as Donald has explained in the post above. For OEMs the order of importance for shunts will be Accuracy – Reliability – Cost and from what I know Shivalik shunts are able to clear the accuracy and reliability hurdles and are probably the lowest cost producer of the Shunts.
As the regulations become more stringent, by 2025-30 we will have a large number of EV launches, the demand for shunts would spike during that period and hopefully Shivalik will benefit from the tailwind.
Disclaimer : Biased as I work in an Auto OEM and I have just provided my observation. We will also have to see how the supply chain dynamics play out between OEM, TIER-1/2/3