Hi @Cshar
How are you navigating the market off late ? Any recent modification to your portfolio and how is the portfolio composition now?
Thanks
Hi @Cshar
How are you navigating the market off late ? Any recent modification to your portfolio and how is the portfolio composition now?
Thanks
sir, can you please let me know from which platform you bought at what price?
Basic Economics by thomas Sowell is another great book similar to this!
@gpharshas All the best. Please ensure you follow the system consistently.
Some churn after months of sitting and doing nothing which has been quite a challenge for my monkey brain - I raised some cash selling Sharda in the runup to 3k. Think its fairly valued and further growth from FY24 base might be hard. Still have a 5% position left, to see if TREM-V or the new acquisition plays out and also since its a stellar business in terms of cash flows and management quality. After writing “its still cheap” for several months, I don’t think I can say the same anymore. Added little more to the Shaily position from 460-470 levels since I have grown to understand and like the business a whole lot better and have better understanding of longevity and long-term triggers.
Pix, weekly - Pix is consolidating on the weekly chart for around a year.
Pix makes transmission belts including v-belts and timing belts that are used across industry and automotive space. The products have persistent replacement demand. They are growing in export market mainly with export contribution in FY24 going to 60% mark from 46% in FY20. The growth overall though after the FY20-FY21 period has been flat and consequently, the stock has been going sideways without much return in the last 3 yrs (~50% return as compared to 2.5x the microcap index has done and ~5x most names have done).
Now with the base built, there are signs that growth might be back which is all that might be needed to get the price moving up leading to a breakout from the base that has been built. The downside is perhaps 10% at most here and upside depends on the quantum of growth and how persistent it will be.
Disc: Positions in Pix between 1450-1500. Not qualified to advice and am just a novice sharing what I do and writing for clarity.
Zaggle_Research report.pdf (1.6 MB)
Hi, I am staring a thread for Zaggle Prepaid Ocean services. I have prepared a short report on it…
Happy to discuss more about competition, key risk, track new developments, etc…
Thank you sir, for the detailed answer. I’m planning to have 20 stocks PF from NSE 500 universe and WRH to be 1.5X (Wait until rank 30) and to start the rebalancing once in a week and change it to fortnight if churn rate is very less. thanks again for taking time to explain in detail. much appreciated.
I have been studying about Intrinsic value and margin of safety from intelligent Investor and I have been building stocktrend margin of safety calculator some kind of screening formula to calculate margin of safety. I have been using Benjamin Graham Intrinsic value formula to calculate Margin of safety. so basically I am tech guy and learning stock market since 2019 and also its my first active thread, so bear with me if any miscalculation or incorrect thesis.
Intrinsic value = [EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4]/Y
From:https://www.valueresearchonline.com/stories/27759/the-ben-graham-way/
I had changed some of the parameter to include future earning and for Indian market.
Intrinsic Value = (EPS * (AverageNiftyPE + 2 * growthRate)* Gsec)/Bond Yield
So, For 8.5 base PE, I had taken Average PE for Indian market and For 4.4, I had taken gsec rate as risk free rate and bond yield as same above AAA corporate yield.
For simple screening, we can formulate a formula to know MOS over future earning potential whether its worth to know more or study about the company. So by applying the above for Nifty.
As on (21/07/2024) For Base PE, I had taken Average Nifty median PE which is 20.74 (20 year average) and if we consider 0% earning growth and EPS as 1,052.4 Rs. Bond Rate(Risk Free Rate) as 7.01(Government Sec) and Bond Yield as 8.32% (AAA Corporate Yield)
This gives Intrinsic value of Nifty as 18390.11 and margin of safety as -33.39% which is overvalued by 32.09% at 0% growth rate but if we assume 10% eps growth for the next 5-7 years its undervalued by 32%
If My understanding is correct, so assuming 10% eps for the next 5 years, nifty is undervalued by 32%. Which gives better view of valuation over future earnings or am I missing something ?
By applying Same principle in Each sector by giving expected earning growth Rate for each industry and average median PE as industry PE. we can formulate at screening margin of safety for each sector.
Eg: Tanla Platforms Limited
As on (21/07/2024) I had taken Average Nifty IT Index median PE which is 27.46 (5Y avg) because of IT company and if we consider 10% earning growth and EPS as 10.50 Rs. which gives 41.07% margin of safety.
Like wise, Lets take hot sector, defence
Paras Defence
Here we don’t have longterm index data, I would have taken nifty PE but lets us use defense index PE as 56.24 and if we consider 25% earning growth and EPS as 2.56 Rs. which gives -532% margin of safety. which is overvalued by 532% or 5x its future earnings. If we consider Nifty PE as base PE it would be 8 times.
And Also, I had taken the same in google sheet and computed MOS % for each stock.
Stocktrend(Margin of Safety Calculator):StockTrend - Trusted Source for Market Trends and Insights
Twitter Thread (Stock Watchlist):x.com
Note:The above mentioned stocks are for examples only and Not a Buy/Sell recommendation. I may be wrong as well. Feel free to share your views and analysis of any stocks. Very much interested to discuss further.
True. I’ve complained on this forum of vague number provided in concalls before. I hope Dua learns that number uttered, even in the most hypothetical scenarios, will be quoted back.
800cr. did seem like surreal and actually got my heart racing due to the below calculation:
If we look at it from an annual asset turn perspective where capex this year, gives revenue next year, these are the numbers we get:
Assets: 800 (this year) + ~200 (existing 210 - 12 intangible assets ) = ~1000 cr. This will be in FY24-25
Revenue in 25-26 from above at 1.5x asset turn = 1000 X 1.5 = 1500 cr.
Assume, PAT margin is 15% (24% now - 9% debt interest assumed) = 1500 * 0.15 = 225 cr.
EPS = 225 /1.45 = 155 Rs/ share
PE (in todays price) = 1818 (CMP) / 155 = ~11.7
Now these are quite conservative assumptions. It does not assume capex will give returns within the same year. PAT is assumed low. No new CAPEX and returns in FY25-26.
I have not accounted for mounting depreciation but the point is that the dream of these numbers go my heart rate up and that does not happen often.
With the 800cr. assumption gone, let’s see where this goes. Will have better idea in H2.
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