Well in that case isn’t your whole investment a passive income? It is confusing. Since it’s based on technical setup, won’t Positional/Swing portfolio be a better name?
Posts tagged Value Pickr
Websol energy system ltd (11-10-2024)
Quoting thesis from X by @InvestIndia6
Let us look at the cheapest Solar stock today
#websol
In short , the co is into PV Module sector for long time, they had obsolete tech so they built everything from scratch in 23-24.
They installed a 600 MW Cell line and a 550 MW Module line. (Module line started from 1st August 24)
Latest AR says that they plan to increase cell capacity to 2.4 GW by FY 27.
Making a cell is much more complex as you have to balance thermal, wet chemistry and Machining process (wafer to cell) all together. That is why the time to establish a cell line is much longer and costly.
So let us look at what #websol is doing and where it is headed.
The co imported
1.46 cr wafers in Q1
1.3 cr wafers in Q2
the unit price per wafer:
Q1: 18.4 Rs.
Q2: 12.9 Rs.
So the raw material wafer price was 30% less in Q2 vs Q1.
But this is not all. As we know that co started making module from 1st August. Since the unit is in SEZ, any stock transfers will also be reported. And just like clockwork, we see the same. #WEBSOL has manufactured 58 lac cells in Aug and Sep.
Now per cell selling price in NON DCR = 99 rs
per cell selling price in DCR= 160 rs
So let's say #WEBSOL is selling every cell as NON DCR which means that its revenue is 57 cr per month for Aug and Sep. This is because their solar cell expense is 19 cr per month so 3x for revenues. (19*3=57)
In Q1 it did 112 cr of revenues so 37 cr per month which can be assumed the same for July 24.
So adding all 3, the revenue for Q2 should be 37+57+57= 150 cr
Now, we know clearly that the co did 20% PAT margins but with input price of wafer down 30%, this PAT margin should expand. Also the margins between wafer and cell and now cell to module will be added.
As per my recent talks with Alpex in REI 24, the PAT margins are 50-70% but I think its ok to consider 30% for now.
So co will do 45 cr of PAT in Q2. Even at same run rate every quarter, the PAT for full year will be 170 cr.
PAT: 170 cr
EPS: 40
Forward PE at CMP= 25 (yes just 25)
All other solar module cos are trading at a much higher PE. But #Websol is not just a solar module co, it is a wafer to module so should command a higher PE than pure play Module cos.
But Wait, why do I assume a flat Revenue per quarter. As i said before, Making a cell means fusing thermal, wet chemistry and machining processes together.
Centrotherm is a leader in the thermal process and what we see from the data that in August and September, #WEBSOL has imported a lot of machinery from Centrotherm. I am not an expert but google search tells me that these machines are required for setting up a solar cell line.
Google search also tells that #WEBSOL has asked for a second 33kv connection. Tender for which was floated in September 24. A second 33KV connection could also mean the same- they are expanding a new cell line.
wbsedcl.in/irj/go/km/docs…
All this put together, for FY25-26, Websol should be able to comfortably do 1.2GW cell and module lines.
That makes them valued at a just a PE of 12 by end of FY26. That is also the time when ALCM (approved list of cell manufacturers) will come likely hence giving even further boost to margins.
Imagine, even on existing setup, I am assuming all the cells go to NON DCR applications. If it goes to DCR applications a 100% then the PE shrinks to just 7.
1.2 GW cell and module line
Cell cost for 1.2 GW monthly- 38 cr
Monthly revenues 190 cr (38*5)
yearly revenues =190*12=2280 crores
PAT: 30% margin or 685 cr
EPS:160
PE at CMP= 1050/160=6.5
Abhi 7 ke PE par kaunsi solar cell/module ki co milti haiAmoul Portfolio (11-10-2024)
PORTFOLIO UPDATE:
| Stock | Profit % | Protfolio % |
|---|---|---|
| Zomato | 151% | 15% |
| NTSP | 110% | 22% |
| Angel One | 12% | 14% |
| DP Abhushan | 175% | 12% |
| Dr Agarwal | 29% | 14% |
| TPCL Packaging | 44% | 7% |
| Bajaj Finance | 3% | 9% |
| Gravita India | 43% | 6% |
Sold entire Holding of LT Foods:
- PE reached an all-time high for LT foods and there is less scope for valuation expansion, The Company will still grow at a healthy rate but returns might be limited to profit growth and not PE expansion. Also I found a better opportunity in Dr Agarwal Eye Hospital.
Added Dr Agarwal Eye Hospital
- Dr Agarwal is a core part of my portfolio now (more than 10% allocation)
- Eye care industry is going through a transformation of shifting from an unorganised to an organized sector, this can benefit the company
- Showing a strong profit growth of 31% in last 5 years and OPM is also increasing YoY which means the company is getting more efficient
- The company is planning to open more hospitals that will drive growth along with an increase in services offered through the same store
NPST Update
- NPST has fallen by more than 30% from its top. There have been concerns about the drop in future profit but I am waiting for its quarterly results post will make a decision if it is a good time to increase the allocation
Other Stocks on Radar
- BLS International
- Yatharth Hospitals
- Manan In Store
NPST – Technology Provider for UPI Tech (11-10-2024)
Excellent work tabulating your argument @Gaurav_Didwania .
I’ll have to scour through the concalls to find the source but in one of them they did mention this.
The management said that the numbers reported for Cosmos includes transactions from other sources as well, not just NPST, so revenue from Evok and numbers of Cosmos may not be correlated 1 to 1.
My 0.001% stock market journey (11-10-2024)
Thank you for sharing your valuable insights.
I do SIPs in stocks where I don’t want to take too much risk at the moment. So I keep buying in small amounts. When I am confident about a SIP stock, I put it in the long term portfolio and increase the investment.
I do not do swing or short term trading, so whatever stocks are in my passive portfolio, I hold them for at least 1-2 year.
I call it a passive portfolio because from my point of view, any income I earn apart from my main income source is passive income for me. I could be wrong, but I don’t want to create too much confusion about money.
Rishabh Instruments Ltd (11-10-2024)
Microsys Promatic does seem like an interesting acquisition and it can become something big if things fall into place. Right now the topline of this company is 5-6 Cr INR so don’t think it will add much to the nos immediately. Does anybody know the cost of this acquisition ? Also, the promoter holding has reduced slightly for last 2 quarters sequentially. Any specific reasons behind it ? I don’t have any positions just tracking this co closely. It seems like it will be something to watch out for after the overhang of Aluminium diecast OEM business is gone.
Hemant Surgical Industries Limited (11-10-2024)
Very helpful sir. Thanks for the information!!
Hemant Surgical Industries Limited (11-10-2024)
Please note following is my notes from past study, the primary source is DRHP industry section and followed by search in general.
Indian Medical Devices Industry
As of 2020, the medical devices market is estimated to be at US$ 12 billion in India. The Indian market for medical equipment is predicted to increase to US$ 50 billion by 2025.
- Between 2020-25, diagnostic imaging is likely to expand at a CAGR of 13.5%
The Indian medical devices sector is broadly classified into 5 segments – Electronics equipment, Surgical instruments, Implants, IVD (In-vitro Diagnostic) devices/reagents and Consumables & Disposables.
India has a 75-80% import dependency on medical devices, with exports of US$ 2.53 billion in FY21, which is expected to increase at a CAGR of 41% to reach US$ 10 billion by 2025. Domestic manufacturing is largely focused on low-cost- high volume segments (like Consumables and Disposables)
- 100% FDI is allowed in the medical devices sector in India. Categories such as equipment and instruments, consumables, and implants attract the most FDI.
- PLI scheme for domestic manufacturing of medical devices, with a total outlay of funds worth Rs. 3,420 crores (US$ 468.78 million) for the period FY21-28.
- Total committed investment of ~Rs. 729.63 crore (US$ 100.01 million) by the companies Siemens Healthcare Private Limited, Allengers Medical Systems Limited (AMSL), Allengers OEM Private Limited (AOPL), Wipro GE Healthcare Private Limited, Nipro India Corporation Private Limited, Sahajanand Medical Technologies Private Limited, Innvolution Healthcare Private Limited, and Integris Health Private Limited, and generate ~2,304 jobs.
- Most of these players are doing research with collaboration in IIT/NIIT and another top university in India.
- Introduction of Medical Parks – Noida, Himachal Pradesh, and UP has proposed to set up parks that will bring in an investment of ~10000 crores.
- Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) collaborated with the Indian Institutes of Technology (IITs) to establish ‘ICMR at IITs’ by setting up Centres of Excellence (CoE) for Make-in-India product development and commercialization in the medical devices and diagnostics space
- The CoEs are a major initiative that will help to improve the health of the Indian population. They will make high-quality medical devices and diagnostic tools more affordable and accessible to patients and healthcare providers across the country. This will help to improve the quality of care and reduce the cost of healthcare in India.
Policy Support and Government Initiatives
The government announced Rs. 64,180 crores (US$ 8.80 billion) outlay for the healthcare sector over six years in the Union Budget 2021-22 to strengthen the existing ‘National Health Mission’ by developing capacities of primary, secondary and tertiary care, healthcare systems, and institutions for detection and cure of new & emerging diseases.
- The Government of India approved the continuation of ‘National Health Mission’ with a budget of Rs. 37,000 crore (US$ 4.85 billion) under the Union Budget 2022-23.
- The Indian government is planning to introduce a credit incentive program worth Rs. 500 billion (US$ 6.8 billion) to boost the country’s healthcare infrastructure.
- Pradhan Mantri Swasthya Suraksha Yojana – In the Union Budget 2022-23, Rs. 10,000 crore (US$ 1.31 billion) was allocated to the scheme. The Government of India will use this money to boost the medical education infrastructure of the country and set up AIIMS across the country.
- PM Ayushman Bharat Health Infrastructure Mission (PM-ABHIM) – In the Union Budget 2022-23, Rs. 5,156 crore (US$ 675.72 million) was allocated to the newly announced PM-ABHIM to strengthen India’s health infrastructure and improve the country’s primary, secondary and tertiary care services.
The Union Cabinet approved setting up of the National Nutrition Mission (NNM) to monitor, supervise, fix targets and guide nutrition-related interventions across ministries. Over 100 million people are expected to be benefited by this program – the program will cover all states and districts.
- In the Union Budget 2021-22, the government announced its plans to launch ‘Mission Poshan 2.0’ to merge ‘Supplementary Nutrition Programme’ with ‘Poshan Abhiyan’ (Nutrition Mission)
The Ministry of Health and Family Welfare’s eSanjeevani telemedicine consultation service crossed 3 crore teleconsultations as on March 25, 2022.
Ayushman Bharat – Ayushman Bharat-Health and Wellness Centres, Ayushman Bharat Health Account and Ayushman Bharat Digital Mission.****
In BioAsia 2021, key stakeholders in the panel discussion on medical technologies stated that India would become self-sufficient in domestic medical device manufacturing by 2025-26
Few Companies which are listed or come with IPO proposal
Poly Medicure Ltd. (POLYMED) is a leading player in the organized medical disposable devices market with strong brand positioning due to high-quality products used in infusion therapy, blood management, surgery, dialysis, and other segments. POLYMER is the largest exporter of medical devices from India. POLYMED is among the top three IV Cannula manufacturers in the world and the first indigenous dialyzer manufacturer
- Company extremely export-oriented company
Hemant Surgical Industries Limited – manufacture, import, assemble and market a comprehensive portfolio of medical equipment and disposables. Our product offerings cover a wide spectrum of equipment and disposables required for (i) Renal Care, (ii) Cardiovascular Disease (iii) Respiratory Disease, (iv) Critical Care and Radiology, and (v) Surgical disposables.
- It acts as a distributor for some of the international player few things they assemble in India but no much value-added manufacturing happen within the company.
Opto Circuits offers a wide range of medical devices, including cardiac monitoring systems, patient monitors, infusion pumps, and surgical instruments. The company’s products are used in hospitals, clinics, and other healthcare settings.
- Recently time company facing an extreme debt burden and stiff computation from it peers. This was the darling of the market but the company could not handle debt, This is one my biggest mistakes in my investment journey. You can call Suzlone of Medical Device.
There is limited called players in India if they have they are not listed in the market. This sector will enjoy the India health infra-building initiative. I need to find a way how to study the trend change in the sector which could impact the hospital or diagnostic industry for health service.
Valiant Organics – High ROCE, debt free (11-10-2024)
some of them are promoters.