Sorry for the oversight, Mukul Agarwal hodlding as on 11th Aug. is less than 1% or he may have exited…

Mansoon update for 2023:

After 4 years we had a monsoon that was slightly below the normal. Cumulative rainfall during monsoon season 2023 was 94%(82CM)of its long period average(LPA).

Seasonal rainfall over the Northwest, Central, South peninsula and Northeast India were 101%, 100%,92% and 82% of respective LPA.

Monsoon core zone , which consists of most of the rainfed agriculture regions in the country received 101% of LPA which was a good thing.

Out of 36 meteorological subdivisions, 3 subdivisions received excess rainfall,26% subdivisions received normal rainfall and 7 subdivisions received deficient rainfall.

In addition to delayed onset of monsoon, monthly rainfall activity varied significantly across affecting agriculture activities. It was91% of LPA in June, 113% of LPA in July, 64% of LPA in August and 113% of LPA in September which is well represented in below pic.

The impact of deficient monsoon may not be significant during the current year but can affect significantly if deficient rainfall continues for next year(particularly for rural focussed microfinance companies). Already the current live storage available across the reservoirs is less than last year and less than last 10 years average. Storage status in the water reservoirs of the southern region is significantly low compared to other regions.

water levels.pdf (2.3 MB)

Co. released SHP for August post buy back completion…otherwise they are meant to release post quarter only.
Promoter shareholding increased post buyback.
Discl. Holding…2% of portfolio.Participated in buyback @150, bought back same quanity from market@ around 130.

Thank you so much for the detailed inputs. That was helpful Lot of homework to be done from my end.

I went through the concall video; the business seems interesting. It’s a good sign that the management has initiated concalls.

FY2023 AGM Notes

1. Financials:

Revenue 650cr
Ebitda 39cr
Pat 11cr

2. Non-Auto Business Development:

Development orders received from the railway business. and will get converted into bulk orders.
Non-auto business to contribute 10% of total revenue in FY25.

3. Technological Advancements:

Addition of 2 cutting-edge cutting machines (2D and 5-axis laser) to cater to customer proto requirements.
Pune facility upgraded with ultra-modern CNC and a dedicated press for tool tryouts.

4. Operating Efficiency Improvements:

Operating efficiency enhanced through the use of a decoling machine, resulting in a cost saving of Rs 2 per kg for sheet cutting.

5. Business Opportunities:

Indian Railways: Opportunities in coaching manufacturing for side walls, end walls, roof, under frame, air ducts, and vents.
Child Parts: Involvement in coach interiors, small assemblies, and aluminum extrusions.
EV Industry: Focus on battery components, including casing, brackets, enclosures, and housing.
White Goods: Opportunities in appliance cabinets, door and lid components, control panels, and AC panels.

6. Financial Projections:

Company aims for 10-12% topline growth and an EBITDA of 8-9%.

7. Challenges and Strategies:

FY23 challenges include RDE regulation changes and volatility in raw material prices leading to demand fluctuations.
Operating profit down by 1% due to higher raw material purchases each quarter.
Plans to convert existing conventional lines to robotic for significant cost savings.
Planning to establish a 7.5 MW solar park by the end of FY24 to reduce power costs.

8. Expansion and Business Opp:

Setting up a manufacturing unit in Sanand, Gujarat, for electric, IC, and CNC engine passenger vehicles. Operational befor end of FY 2024.
TML Tata Motor Limited expected to bring 10 more EV, ICE, CNG variants, with awarded business of 250 cr in Sanand and more expected.
Mahindra planning 15 different EV and PV variants, with an estimated business of at least 300 cr for the next 5 years.
Ashok Leyland gearing up for five new EV launches in the next 3 years, expecting 100 cr revenue in the next 2 years.
Hyundai, after acquiring GM plant, preparing for 5 EV variants with expected business of 75 cr for the next 3 years.

9. Customer Mix:

FY23 Customer Mix: Tata Motors and non-Tata Motors. 71 / 29
Expected FY24 Customer Mix: Tata Motors and non-Tata Motors. 68 / 32