Posts tagged Value Pickr
Samhi Hotels – Turnaround with Tailwinds (18-07-2024)
Samhi hold strong brand portfolio, just was looking for some new entries few days back and this struck, did a little analysis before sleeping and could not sleep after .
I like current price point, seeing strong business moat, competent management, growing appetite of Indian travellers and strong economic outlook. Risk reward ratio are very favourable. This is a kind if Mohnish Pabrai stock.
Already entered with 9% if my Portfolio. Three years down the line, this might become talk of the town. Fingers crossed.
Finding bets in current market is tough task.
Samhi Hotels – Turnaround with Tailwinds (18-07-2024)
Samhi hold strong brand portfolio, just was looking for some new entries few days back and this struck, did a little analysis before sleeping and could not sleep after .
I like current price point, seeing strong business moat, competent management, growing appetite of Indian travellers and strong economic outlook. Risk reward ratio are very favourable. This is a kind if Mohnish Pabrai stock.
Already entered with 9% if my Portfolio. Three years down the line, this might become talk of the town. Fingers crossed.
Finding bets in current market is tough task.
Smallcap momentum portfolio (18-07-2024)
@duvvurib i will try and clarify using the same numbers.
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We start with Rs 5 each for 20 stocks.
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At the end of week 1, one stock falls to Rs 4. Assume another stock goes to Rs 6.
At the time of rebalance,
We allow the winners to ride and therefore, do nothing to the stock that has gone to Rs 6.
The weakest stock at Rs 4 is replaced with another stock that comes in at valuation of Rs 4.
The value of the pf does not change before and after rebalancing.
If I have additional money to invest, I will try and get all stocks back to 5% allocation as closely as possible; doing this without selling the Rs 6 stock.
KEI Industries Ltd – A consistent performer over the last decade (18-07-2024)
But even in cable segment , the total sector has got very high PE Rating. If you do reverse DCF , I think, this may not be sustainable
Samhi Hotels – Turnaround with Tailwinds (18-07-2024)
Shares in Supply :
Lock-in of shares is also near March 21st 2025
Actually only 15.8% of the shares o/s are locked in for a period of 18 months, i.e. till March 2025. Beyond this 15.8%, pre-IPO and anchor investors are free to sell and they have been selling through the last few months.
Blue Chandra and GTI Capital have in fact already sold down to their 18 month lock-in levels. So the selling overhang is not a March 2025 event, its already very much underway.
ACIC Portfolio: ( Good or Bad )
One of the bad side is they have diluted lot of equity,and got the land bank in Navi Mumbai and that’s written off ( 70cr )
The land issue was unfortunate but as Chinmaya pointed out I think the ACIC acquisition happened at a fair valuation. Not cheap (as you can imagine in the middle of a strong hotel upcycle), but fair, at around 13x EVEBITDA considering ACIC’s FY24 EBITDA nos. So I don’t think over-dilution happened.
Expansion Delay:
-. Samhi is having ongoing expansion of hotels which are not up in past 3 to 4 years ? Why it’s being delayed.
Caspia Pro Hotel , Bangalore expansion, Hyatt Regency etc…
Not sure if they have addressed this in the DRHP or the concalls, cannot recall. If I had to guess I would think it was due to a drag in free cash due to high debt and Covid. Hopefully these assets will be rebranded and functioning by H2 FY25 as management has guided.
Disc: Invested and biased.
ValuePickr- Mumbai (18-07-2024)
There is a whatsapp group.
Wockhardt: an NiCE story (18-07-2024)
@parkhi_nazar - Appreciate the number-crunching man
Few things to keep in mind
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I think royalty here is bound to be in the high teens on par with orphan drugs, first-in-class drugs (BLE acknowledgement and higher breakpoint point than Cefepime points in this direction) and highly specialised drugs with a small target market.
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If drug is manufactured and marketed by another party, along with royalty there is generally a one-time upfront licensing fee which brings in substantial value, alongside the DCF from royalty
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The market size of WCK-5222 may have gone up after the higher breakpoint since its understood now that its a lot safer to use without risk of resistance (relative). Though it might be early, we may have to compare market size of WCK-5222 with carbapenems ($4b in sales) instead of with Avycaz (already doing close to $1b in sales)
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The way WCK-6777 (Ertapenem+Zidebactam) works is fairly similar with Zidebactam functioning as BLE and lowering the MIC of Ertapenem.
The MICs are so low even where Ertapenem is resistant.
You can see at what MIC 90% cumulative reduction in population happens for Ertapenem vs Ertapenem+Zidebactam (almost 2-3 dilutions lower!).
Zidebactam can give a new lease of life to lot of old beta-lactam antibiotics in combination as a BLE perhaps. So success of WCK-5222 has more riding on it than just its value. There’s a step-wise recalibration that can happen in expectation at that point of time in future where the money from WCK-5222 upfront licensing fee can help with taking the rest of the drugs through trials and unlocking further value. The balance sheet once it gets deleveraged can make this look like a completely different business once cash flows start.
Again, these are at least a year or 2 in the future, so a lot can change and all of it hinge on WCK-5222’s success, so its like building castles in the air talking more about it at this point prematurely. But WCK-5222 is not the only thing that can affect valuation once its approved is the limited point.
Disc: Invested. No recent transactions