Sharing my analysis on GPT Infra and why it stands a chance to 2x in next few quarters
- Management has guided for 28% revenue growth and 45% profit growth in FY25, however the growth was muted in 1Q’25 on account of general elections so to achieve the growth stated by management, PAT is likely to grow by 48-50% for the next 3 quarters of the financial year
- GPT has maintained order book of nearly 3.6x of its annual revenue and is confident to maintain the same going forward as the governments focus on this sector
- Management is focussed on maintaining OPMs of 13%+ and only bids for contract which supports the margin profile
- GPT has successfully raised Rs 175 crore at Rs 175/share which will be used to repay most of the debt which would half the interest cost and also reduce promoter pledging by FY25 and pledge free by FY26
Calculation for GPT to 2x
For FY25,
Revenue – Rs 1300 crore
Profit – Rs 80-82 crore
Shares outstanding – 12.6 crore
EPS – Rs 6.5
PE – 42-45 considering a growth company and previously achieved PE = 42
Price – 45*6.5 = 292 (2X from current levels)
Disc: Invested, biased