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Amazing to always hear the CEO sharing his views and outlook, so clear and articulative, at times conservative in his guidance. Looks like a tremendous multi years growth story given their business model, moat in prime business markets, industry tailwinds, executive track record and management bandwidth. I have started adding positions in Samhi, top holding in my portfolio now.

https://www.ndtvprofit.com/business/confident-on-achieving-capex-guidance-says-samhi-hotels-ceo Copyright © NDTV Profit

@Chandragupta, @ChaitanyaC , hello dear, would like to know your opinion about having Gold and silver in the portfolio as an asset allocation strategy…Is it required at all? Will it dilute our portfolio returns? Also how much percentage of portfolio it should be? 5%, 10%or 25% ? Gold ETF and Silver ETFs are better options as I have gone through some, May be Icicipru gold etf as well as Silver etf seems better from liquidity as well as expense ratio point of view…pls guide…My equity portfolio is mostly rank based momentum strategy…No other asset class currently I hold…

Have been tracking the stock since 2020 and these are some of my thoughts on why the price has moved now. It was known since 2018 that Kiri is entitled to minority operation proceeds from Senda.

The share moved for a couple of days whenever they won in any court but then instantly came back down as winning didn’t mean that senda will pay.

Then in November 22 to Jan 23, when Senda didn’t even pay some small litigation fees which were due. the share crashed as the market gave up all hope of Kiri Industries getting the money.

So, now what has happened suddenly that the market is now again showing confidence of KIL getting those 5000 crores.

1. The preferential issue by the promoters : I have been hearing the promoters since past 4 years saying that they want to buy the shares but they don’t have the funds, they are trying to arrange funds. And now, suddenly they found some 500 crores lying somewhere. It was always thought that the promoters will invest only when they will be sure of getting the 5000 crores. They have taken 15% shares of the company at 2000 crore valuation now as they are now sure of getting the 5000 crores. there were no outsiders in this pref issue. No rights issue. Just preferential for the promoters. More than 28% of these warrants have already been converted.

2. USD 130 million Judgement funding.
   Why will a Fund give a Rs. 1000 crore loan to a KIL, whose only real asset is his share in DyStar. I know that the fund has taken some guarantees of Promoters, but that is just a formality in my opinion.
   They have given this funding because even they are now sure that KIL is now on the verge of receiving the Payment.
   In the Worst possible situation, even if Senda wins the appeal and no priority payment is given to KIL. Still 37% of DyStar sales will come to KIL.

3. The final stages of the Case.
   Kiri has won in Supreme court, kiri has won execution order in SICC and now the only point of debate in Supreme court is whether Kiri should receive priority payment of 5000 crores or it should only receive 37% of the total buyout proceeds.
   There is no other dispute now, DyStar will be sold, Non binding offers will be received on 22-11-2024.
   The process should get over in the First half of Calendar Year 2025.
   The market believes that now there aren’t many legal options left with the Senda group.

4. Only 50% of the proceeds will be invested into the new business and the rest 50% is still up for discussion. There is a chance that a special dividend or buyback might come as per the latest concall.

No doubt there is still a big big risk of Senda taking some more legal options and dragging it further. But that will always be there till the day the money is actually in KIL bank account.

The Adani Group Case: A Deep Dive into Allegations of Corruption and Fraud

The Adani Group, founded in 1988 by Gautam Adani, is one of India’s most influential conglomerates, with interests spanning across a diverse range of industries such as energy, infrastructure, agribusiness, ports, and financial services. With its headquarters in Ahmedabad, Gujarat, the company has been a major contributor to India’s growth, earning a reputation as a key player in both the Indian economy and the global business world.

Despite the company’s remarkable success, the Adani Group has recently been embroiled in a series of serious allegations that have raised significant questions about its corporate governance, ethical practices, and compliance with international laws. The case against the group, involving charges of bribery, fraudulent transactions, and obstruction of justice, has attracted attention worldwide.

Adani Green Energy Limited (AGEL), the group’s renewable energy arm, is also being looked at as part of this investigation. AGEL is responsible for many of the company’s solar and wind energy projects across India. While AGEL has helped India’s green energy goals, it is now under scrutiny for its possible involvement in the bribery and fraud schemes that have been uncovered.

Before going forward to the allegation part, let’s look at the Adani’s group market capitalization compared with the debt obligations

The company has total debt obligations of 2.79 lakh crore, which is a very significant amount. What needs to be checked is that these Market Capitalizations will be sustained given the kind of volatility these stocks have been showing since 2023 or not.

Let’s break down the key elements of the Adani case based on the data available

• Bribery Scheme- The Adani Group is accused of being involved in a large bribery scheme to get government officials to help them secure business deals. The main people accused are Gautam Adani, his brother Sagar R. Adani, and another top executive, Vneet S. Jain, are accused of offering over Rs 2,000 crore (approximately $265 million) in bribes to Indian government officials. These bribes were allegedly intended to secure profitable solar energy supply contracts with state electricity distribution companies. The scheme allegedly started in 2018 and continued for years, with the company paying bribes to officials to get things like power contracts. Between December 2019 and July 2020, the U.S. Issuer and the Indian Energy Company’s subsidiary won a major solar power contract from SECI (Solar Energy Corporation of India), known as the Manufacturing Linked Project. The U.S. Issuer was to supply 4 gigawatts, while the Indian subsidiary would supply 8 gigawatts of solar power. This project was one of the largest solar energy initiatives globally and significantly expanded their renewable energy portfolios. Both companies promoted the project, with statements highlighting its scale and potential profits, including an expected $2 billion in after-tax profits for the U.S. Issuer over 20 years.

• Obstruction of Justice- Another part of the case involves the Adani Group allegedly trying to cover up their actions. When the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) started investigating the company in 2022, Adani executives allegedly tried to hide evidence, destroy documents, and block investigations. In March 2023, FBI agents informed Sagar R. Adani about an investigation into bribery and fraud involving the Adani Group. They seized his electronic devices and issued a grand jury subpoena, probing violations like bribery, securities fraud, and wire fraud. The investigation focused on Sagar, Gautam Adani, Vneet S. Jain, and the Indian Energy Company, with allegations of bribing Indian officials for business advantages. Despite this, they reportedly misled investors and financial institutions.

• Securities fraud and wire fraud scheme- Between 2020 and 2024, the Indian Energy Company raised over $2 billion in loans and $1 billion in securities, targeting U.S. investors. During this process, key figures, including Gautam S. Adani, Sagar R. Adani, and Vneet S. Jain, made false statements and hid the bribery scheme from investors. They used the U.S. financial system to facilitate these fraudulent transactions, including sending wire transfers through the U.S. to secure investments.

• Fraudulent Loans and Bonds- On top of bribery, the Adani Group is also accused of making false statements to get financing from banks and investors. Over the past few years, the group has raised billions of dollars through loans and bond issues by promising investors that they were following good business practices, including anti-corruption rules. But investigations suggest that the group was hiding its involvement in bribery and failing to be transparent with investors.

• The 2021 and 2024 Loans and Bonds- Two of the biggest financial transactions that have raised red flags are the 2021 Syndicate Loan and the 2024 144A Bond issuance. In these deals, the Adani Group raised money by issuing bonds and taking loans from international banks. However, they are accused of misleading the investors by making false statements about their business practices and not disclosing their involvement in illegal activities. This made it easier for them to get funding while hiding the real risks involved. While actively engaged in bribery scheme, the Adani group authorized the Indian Energy Company to issue the 2021 144A Bond nad make use of proceed.

What’s Next for the Adani Group?

The Adani Group is facing serious legal and financial challenges because of these allegations. The ongoing investigations by the U.S. authorities, including the FBI and SEC, have raised concerns about the company’s future. While the Adani Group has been an important part of India’s economy, these accusations could damage its reputation and lead to legal consequences.

For now, the group’s ability to continue operating at its current scale and attract future investments will depend on how well it handles these allegations. The outcome of these investigations will not only affect the company but could also impact corporate governance in India, especially for big companies like the Adani Group that play such a huge role in the economy.

In conclusion, the Adani case is a significant story of corporate misconduct, and the world is watching closely to see how it unfolds. Whether the group can recover from these allegations and restore its reputation remains to be seen.

~SOURCES-

https://www.justice.gov/usao-edny/pr/billionaire-chairman-conglomerate-and-seven-other-senior-business-executives-indicted

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/new-york/articles/2024-11-20/us-charges-billionaire-gautam-adani-with-defrauding-investors-hiding-plan-to-bribe-indian-officials