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Posts tagged Value Pickr
Zomato – Should you order? (02-10-2024)
I can’t say more than I have. I won’t say that Zomato is not a good business. But the valuation is absurd.
I sincerely hope you can 10x your money in this and it becomes your ‘multibagger’.
Personally I can’t believe that Zomato’s execution is better than that of their multiple competitors. For me it is a commoditised business.
Their market cap is far larger than their total addressable market.
Look at other stocks related to quick commerce and multiple markets across the Globe.
I see downside up to 95%.
I will repeat rule number one of investing is to never lose money and the rule number two is to never forget rule number one.
Intellect Design Arena (02-10-2024)
- Moving towards 700 cr per quarter revenue from 600 cr per quarter
- Costs are more or less fixed around 480 cr per quarter. Any additional revenue (around 80%) will translate to margin
- Canada Credit Unit (Vancity) won – significant win. The Canadian credit union market which is run on 30/40 year old systems. Vancity is leader in Credit Union market and this deal win has opened a few other opportunities in the market for Intellect.
- US-Hired senior person and started marketing. US is highly regulated market but large TAM. It is a long shot. This could be investment area in the future.
- Conducted few events in last few months in Europe/London/Chennai. Getting 2 leads a day since last few months. Best momentum they have ever seen. Until last year they used to get 60 leads per quarter but this quarter they got around 120 leads. This is due to increased awareness as well as from newly signed partner network. 600cr of funnel through partner network.
- Purple Fabric and iTurmeric is a disruptive technology with huge runway in the market.
- Revenue may be lower margin due to required investment and subscription elements associated with these kinds of products
- IntellectAI – Signed up big 5 – PwC, Accenture, EY, KPMG and Deloitte.
- Talking to lot of CEOs/Heads for partnership. They should be able to build business of $10-$30 million on partnership with IntllectAI products, at least they should see a path towards it by implementing products. Next 2/3 quarters Intellect should have better understanding of how the partnership work is evolving.
- If partnership network starts delivering (as Intellect expect), they could reach 30% margin next 6/8 quarters. Current margins are lower at 20-22% due to investment required in supporting products and new technologies
- eMach AI – Huge interest in wealth management across countries. Implementing for Commodity exchanges in Bangladesh.
- Reduction in implementation revenue – Due to low code nature. Also as they increase partners, implementation revenue will be less. Focus is on license and SaaS revenue.
- Aim for 20% growth over 3-5 years with full focus on organic growth. No interest in inorganic growth.
My Take:
I think they are seeing lot of traction. This does not mean that it will fructify, but they are putting themselves in the right spot at the right time. Earlier many IT companies would believe that they can develop project/product if they implement similar thing for few clients. But Intellect has developed over 30 years of domain expertise with Arun Jain spearheading the operation with full focus on organic expansion.
Intellect was a bit slow on cloud and subscription business but it looks like they spotted AI trend nicely and are riding it. Hopefully it shall result in more client signings and entry in more developed markets.
Zomato – Should you order? (02-10-2024)
Absolutely! When Prof. Damodaran valued Zomato at ₹41 during its IPO in 2021, he looked at the information available back then. he didn’t consider blinkit at that time as Zomato acquired Blinkit only in June 2022.
There are so many things we miss when valuing a company. it is nearly impossible for anyone to predict it correctly
My Portfolio (Updates and Suggestions) (02-10-2024)
Thanks a lot! @rajeesh_jegadeesan for your comment. Hope we learn things and grow together.
Zomato – Should you order? (02-10-2024)
They might expand into other categories, becoming like Amazon and Flipkart, …
Become like Amazon and Flipkart? It looks like the other way round. Its Amazon and Flipkart that want to become Blinkit, venture into Q-commerce. I am not sure if Blinkit is yet interested in becoming Amazon like e-commerce retailer. They reman focussed on
- quick delivery model
- Target cutsomer base is rich/upper middle class who won;t bother about paying a little extra for convenience, luxury, for unplanned things.
Flipkart’s sales are ₹56,000 crore, yet they burn ₹4,800 crore. Amazon India generates ₹25,000 crore in sales but also loses money.
That’s another difference wrt Zomato. Zomato execution has ensured the start of profit cycle last FY.
Just think you are in year 2022…2 years back.
Were you or any analyst able to predict Zomato revenue/profit growth at that time, when it was selling for Rs 40/50.
And here the attempt is being made to predict the revenues and margins and profits after 10 years !
Imagine Blinkit, without warehouses or a pan-India distribution network, magically reaching Flipkart and Amazon’s sales levels in 10 years.
Yeah its not easy. . However think why they are still not able to do quick deliveries even when they have such big networks
I think newer collaborative models will come-in for large products in coming years to build efficiencies with Blinkit/Q-commerce at centre of them.
I doubt Zomato and its subsidiaries can effectively compete against BigBasket, Zepto, Instamart, JioMart, and others.
No doubt there is competition, however any reasons, specifics, data for this bearishness on an outperforming/proven business ?
This will be helpful.
In then end, its different opinions that make a market. Its ok to have different choices.
My Portfolio (Updates and Suggestions) (02-10-2024)
Holy cow I’m in a very similar life position as yours but its just that my asset diversification and goals are a little different. Planning to follow your thread.
Dreamfolks services limited( DFS) (02-10-2024)
Management had answer this in the Conall of Q1FY25, by saying, DFS is a channel partner for Adani-owned lounges. So, Adani is not directly becomes a competitor for them.
Honestly I am not convinced, as Adani One ICICI Credit Card offering low annual fee than DFS Membership fee.
As DFS is diversifying its business services, only time will tell.
Disc: Holding Very small Amount of Shares for Long.
Rajeesh’s Portfolio (02-10-2024)
Planning to offload
Trent – Too small a position but I think its way too over valued, the thing is they are participating and competing in a market which is buzzed by million unbranded players, im quite sure though the indian consumption story is here to stay, I’m planning to divest
Gujarat Pipapav port – Highly manipulated stock, I bought it out of a SEBI registered investor advice but this is a collateral damage where I could not monitor the movements because of too many stocks in a portfolio
KNR construction – Government dependent business, promoters are decreasing their holdings and their Stocks Underperforming their Industry Price Change in the Quarter
Vodafone idea – No brainer. Just loss harvesting which will give me enough time to concentrate on other businesses
Silver ETF – I’m already investing on gold, owing to which im divesting and it has too little weightages
ITD Cementation – A fantastic company just offloading owing to too many picks in portfolio
L&T – Too big a company and its already covered in my ELSS MF portfolio
Infosys – Company is going through distress, the pipeline of projects are dry and would rather prefer to pick smaller IT companies or IT bees to leverage rupee losing value
Lemon tree hotels – Investing in IHCL and Samhi hotels in alternate
Aditya AMC – Unable to concentrate right now and not interested in their business to be more honest
Balmer Lawrie – I have spent good 10 months in this stock, even in the all time high, this stock is not going anywhere. Rather would invest in more convicted picks
Amara Raja, HDFC, ICICI, South indian bank – There are better Large cap players for all of these sectors whose growth is yet to begin
EPIGRAL – Meghmani finechem, has already given a good run up, and I am more convicted in taking a position in Natco rather
BEL – A new nifty 50 entrant but not in my circle of competence
Titan – Too little a position to even consider meaningful returns
This brings the list from 38 to 20
Anant Raj Limited (02-10-2024)
I’ve done a lot of research on Yotta and they’ve already built 100 MW of operating capacity data center and Anant raj is far behind them. I’ve seen interviews of workers inside data centers of Yotta functioning brilliantly and I was so impressed by their work but not even a single video clip or pic on internet regarding Anant raj data center.
So if someone can clarify this up?