The way management is coming forward and sequence of events indicates that Kitex either coming with QIP or rights issue to fund new projects.
Posts tagged Value Pickr
Zomato – Should you order? (01-10-2024)
Blinkit has moved far beyond FMCG… newer categories will keep driving growth for them. Also, a significant part of incremental consumption isn’t driven by listed FMCG cos. Unlisted cos like Veeba have become 1k cr… there would be many more such cos (Paperboat, Pepsi/Coke India, etc etc)
Auto Industry in India – We had a chequered Past, can we expect a bright future? (01-10-2024)
PM E-DRIVE scheme has been notified. Maximum allocation is towards electric two wheeler and electric buses. However, maximum subsidy on electric two wheelers has been reduced to just Rs.5,000 (from 2025-26). From around Rs.45,000 subsidy in FAME-I, the subsidy has been slashed by a whopping 90 per cent. Government feels electric two wheelers no longer require subsidy. This is the reason why subsidy has been slashed steeply. I feel till the charging infrastructure is not in place, EV adoption will continue to be slower.
Second point is that with reduced subsidy, the time to breakeven for an EV buyer will be longer. At present, it takes around 2 years to breakeven for an electric two wheeler buyer considering the higher cost he has paid for the vehicle. This will increase to 2.5 years. And with per unit electricity cost rising, this may even take longer time.
Balu Forge | Forging Ahead with Defense and Aerospace Ambitions Amid Capital Efficiency Concerns | (01-10-2024)
Can’t answer on behalf of company, but from going through all their concalls and meetings.
I can try to present their point of view about this is:
- This discrepancy in negative operating cash flow and positive net profit is due to changes in working capital, including inventory buildup, receivables, and other current assets/liabilities.
- The inventory buildup suggests that the company has been increasing stock levels, potentially to meet expected future demand or to fulfill contractual obligations.
- The company is expanding into defense and auto, which will require higher inventory levels to meet the production requirements and future contracts.
- The recent acquisition of the Mercedes-Benz machining unit and capacity expansion from 18,000 TPA to 32,000 TPA suggests a need for increased inventory to support a higher production level, which can temporarily increase working capital requirements.
Given the push into high-growth areas like defense and auto, and the company’s strategy of increasing production capacity, the increased inventory could be strategic — ensuring they can meet future orders without disruptions.
This type of strategic inventory buildup can lead to negative operating cash flows in the short term, but it may position the company well for future revenue generation.
Personal Note: I am swing trader, I entered aroud 320 ( right after break out ) and exited around 750 level.
I still find it’s fundamentals intact, and keeping tabs on it for future entry point, as long as the story is still intact.
Hercules hoist (01-10-2024)
The demerger will help in finding the value of the crane & hoist business. I have checked the Balance sheet. The investment value in Bajaj Finserv, Bajaj Auto, Bajaj Electric and Bajel projects as of March around 680 crores, and investments in MFS and equity makes upto 900 crores. However, the value of these investments can’t be realised as they are not going to sell anything. One can expect a regular dividend based on the cash flows from investments. The cranes and hoist business valuation can be made based on the revenue. I think there’s no moat for the business.
I believe, all the upside is captured in the current share price.
Disc: I don’t have any holdings.
Mudit’s Portfolio (Stage Analysis + Price Momentum) (01-10-2024)
Hi @Mudit.Kushalvardhan, wanted to know did you consider Nifty MidSmallcap400 Momentum Quality 100? In one of the videos of momentum lab they said that this is probably the best index to find stocks. Or do you think adding another parameter, quality in this case, tends to bring down the returns.?
Zomato – Should you order? (01-10-2024)
I put sales of FMCG giants and added them.
Blinkit can’t sell more than its suppliers combined.
Blinkit faces very tight competition.
And no company with 14k cr in sales has achieved 30% cagr growth in sales.
SJ Logisitics- Dark Horse (01-10-2024)
Compiled some notes, i should have posted it here, my mistake.
Zomato – Should you order? (01-10-2024)
Consumer companies are valued at 60-70 PE due to their defensive. (I do not agree with that)
I assumed 50 PE due to intense competition in Blinkit’s business. And also that Zomato will behave almost like cyclicals in an economic downturn as food delivery is still a luxury in India.
Auto Industry in India – We had a chequered Past, can we expect a bright future? (01-10-2024)
@hardik_shah1
You are absolutely right.
The top most 3 important parameters for the customer is (1) Build quality & Reliability (2) whether there is extensive Service network with well trained technicians at every corner of towns/ cities (3) Spare parts availability in service centers.
Initially, the customer may tend to buy whatever is cheaper , but then if there is any issues as mentioned above, word of mouth spreads and if the customer has a choice, then he would go for alternatives. This may be the reasons why Ola is losing market share.
Further , Bajaj is yet to ramp up its EV volumes…it has only shown a small trailer …you can not under-estimate this 1971 Chetak maker.
Hero was passionate about its motorcycle premium brand, but initially neglected the EV Scooter. Hero has realised this and now focussing on EV scooter. EV motorcycle costs goes up by 2X- 3X than its ICE motorcycle. So EV motorcycle can not be for the mass market.
TVS had also taken the potential of EV scooters seriously.
The EV 2 wheeler penetration will only grow by the year and onwards, barring seasonal factors.
While Bajaj , TVS, Hero started focussing EV scooter to snatch away Ola EV market share, the sleeping giant HMSI (Honda motors and scooters) took away some market share in ICE 2 wheelers from this Trio.
Honda (HMSI) is also ready with 2 wheeler scooter. Would be launched in a massive scale.
With all these players , there would be tough competition among all , though the EV market opportunity is huge , expected to grow 65% CAGR as per estimates from 2024 -2030.
Bajaj had also launched a 2 wheeler CNG which is selling like hot cake…By seeing roaring success of Bajaj CNG 2 wheeler , TVS is also launching a CNG.
Bajaj already has 3 wheeler CNG.
So the market is getting heated up and only the fittest can survive- who can deliver Quality , reliability with extensive service net work , soares availability.
In case of Ola , if we relate to Rabbit Tortoise story- Ola was rabbit , other Trio were Tortoise.It appears though Bajaj, Hero TVS were slow in EV 2 wheeler induction, finally the tortoise seem to have overtaken the rabbit