Posts tagged Value Pickr
DIY Momentum QnA and Discussion (04-07-2024)
I think you are looking at it the wrong way. Let me explain why momentum works rather than investing in a small-cap or a micro-cap index, etc. Please remember that this is my understanding of why momentum works, and I can be very wrong as well, so take it with a grain of salt.
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In a bull market, an all-cap universe momentum strategy will match or underperform the small-cap or microcap index. It’s virtually impossible to beat the index in a bull market. Even if you beat it with the momentum strategy, it would be by a small margin
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When the tide turns, and we go into a bear, or a sideways market, the small-cap and/or microcap indices will go into a huge drawdown. Momentum portfolios will shift to either mid-caps or large-caps, depending on where the best performance is. So you will lose less than the other small/micro-cap indices might have lost.
Momentum works because it switches you into performing sectors and marketcaps. It does it for you because it only sees the price. This doesn’t mean that it won’t give you drawdowns. You will get hit by the initial fall, but eventually, your system will shift and give you better performance than the index. Please read the words carefully - better performance than the index, which means if the index is still falling, say 20-30% more, you may fall only 15%
Over multiple bull and bear cycles, momentum is highly likely to outperform most of the indices. Again, consider this a high probability and not an assured thing. Further, if the country itself goes into a sideways market like what China or Hong Kong did over the past decade or so, then don’t expect momentum to give super returns as well. It might give a little bit of alpha above index returns, for sure, but don’t expect it to make a ton of money in prolonged bear or sideways markets.
Nuvama Wealth Management: Proxy to Affluent India (04-07-2024)
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Agreed, I think the cash flow statement in the annual report that will be published now will be of better help to get to know the specifics. Also, loaning out is a part of core operations so it gets added back to the cash flow from the PnL statement itself. Agreed that the CFO can’t be negative consistently. But I would like you to compare this with 360 instead of Anand Rathi as there not exactly peers to peers.
But I will delve deeper into this to get to know the specifics of the whole cash flow! -
When I said growth over dividends, that was just my personal opinion
Nuvama will/should come with a dividend policy by Q1 fy25. If not, it should be brought but since they have mentioned it I think it’s fair to wait and see.
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So the thing is, HNIs and UHNIs are very sticky. I have been studying deeper and the persistence ratio for UHNIs is high 90s and for HNIs is low 90s. and that’s really good. Which makes me believe the services aren’t as price elastic as we might assume. Moreover, they are more likely to pick their asset manager because of their assets easily being used as collateral. You dont lose out on customers very easily here.
StageInvesting +Elliot Waves (04-07-2024)
Risk Management !
Sound risk management is not about avoiding the risk .
Risk- avoidance means returns-avoidance!
If you want to make money , you have to take risk .
But you can’t make money by just taking risks !
You have to do it skillfully.
There has to be a process that should have following 4 elements :
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Risk that you’re aware of !
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Risk you can analyse
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Risk you can diversify
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And risk for which you’re highly rewarded to take
If these 4 necessities are satisfied , then there’re higher chances that you would get some positive outcome by taking risk .
Bhansali Engineering Polymers – An Import Substitution Story! (04-07-2024)
BEPL AGM 2024 – quick notes
- Unsecured Loans and Advances: No clear answer as to whom the loans (222 Cr + 76 Cr) are given. Management said they are safe and easily callable. As on date of AGM 100 Cr. is received back. Balance will be called back soon for CAPEX. Hopefully Sep. 24 data should reflect this.
- Averse to taking debt due to difficult times seen in the past. All expansion will be done through internal accruals only.
- CAPEX: Cost approx. Rs.500 cr for capacity expansion from 75 KTPA to 200 KTPA. Still awaiting detailed reports from TOYO which is likely to come in another 2-3 months as its delayed.
- Was considering port based expansion in the past which results in cost savings but CAPEX is approx. 1200-1500 Cr. so shelved the plans. No plans to take debt.
- Total market size is 325 KTPA of which 175 KTPA is imported. China consumption is 50 lacs Tons. No risk of oversupply when all new capacities come online (Styrenix and Supreme).
- Presently share of value added products is 25% and 75% is commodity. Specialty grade is mostly for automobiles and home appliances (50%).
- Woks on cost + pricing so margins are more or less stable. No major growth expected in next 2 years until new capacity comes online. Presently operating at > 100% capacity.
- COVID year profits were exceptional (approx. 300 Cr.) due to price hikes. Unlikely to happen again. Reasonable to expect ~180cr. Profits per year at present capacity.
- Mr. Jayesh Bhansali was not present as he was traveling abroad.
- Number of shareholders ~ 122,000
I may have misunderstood / misinterpreted something. Kindly do your own due diligence.
Narayana Hrudayalaya Ltd (04-07-2024)
Current scope of health insurance is just hospital stay, over time scope may expand to cover all expenses, like US based HMOs. Also a large population finds the current cost of insurance prohibitive, hence they might also be the target market. disc: have a tracking position
DIY Momentum QnA and Discussion (04-07-2024)
thank you sir for the response. yeah, the drawdown is to be expected and surely taken into consideration.
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my question was since there is no way to compare for me (from the site) - did a momentum index of microcap or small cap beat its respective indexes comfortably in the last 3 or 4 years?
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separately, i am sorry if i missed it in this thread but what should be the position sizing? same as buying 1 share of the highest priced stock and depending on it the quantity for the rest of the stocks?
Narayana Hrudayalaya Ltd (04-07-2024)
If I already have a health insurance which covers almost all hospitals, why would I want to take a hospital specific health insurance?
Can someone shed light on which whitespace is the company trying to go into - Affordable surgery?
PVR Ltd.- Play on increasing disposable income (04-07-2024)
I think you are very wrong in saying that it was a commodity business. It’s the farthest thing possible from commodity. It’s all about comfort and value-add