profit and all is fine if people have confidence on numbers. market perception could be negative also because of relatively complex business. have heard rumours about management being opaque with numbers etc. whats your view on that
Posts tagged Value Pickr
Associated alcholols & breweries ltd (22-11-2015)
After seeing the half yearly result there is following points
For growth
3 year sales / profit growth > 7 yr sales / profit growth this will show that a longer period time the growth is sustainable and there is no negative growth in 7 years
For returns
Average ROE 3yr > 12 and TTM ROE > 17%
AVERAGE ROA 3yr = 10 and TTM ROA > 13.5%
For capital
Average ROCE 3 yr > 11.5% and TTM ROCE > 16%
ROIC > 18%
Days receivable in outstanding < 40
Inventory days < 40
Current ratio > 1
Debt management
Debt< Debt 3 yrs back DER < 0.7 Z SCORE > 2.9
Capex growth
Net block > Net block 3yrs
Promoter
Holding increased in last 3 yrs by open market > 5.5
No dilution no bonus no pending warrant no preference capital
Sector
Has problems with government but potential to grow
Promoter quality
Not fully known but no history of non compliance no pending investor compliant and dividend started
No web site
Now as regards the remuneration part I feel that the three people put together that is Prasanna Kumar Sushil Kumar and Ashish Gadia are taking a major chunk nearly > 60%
But the good thing is they have declared it in the PL and even after huge employee cost they are able to show adecent profit in the Pl the cash flow has improved the loan and advance is reduced
The bank grantee of 30 cry to third party has to be understood
And finally as regards the investment made by them in Narmada distillery and Mount Everest has to be clarified
Finally as retail investors we should understand that when HNI like Ayush Anil Kumar Goel dolly Khanna make some investment there financial capacity to hold there ability to cut losses there timing and long term view above all there temperament is different from retail investors
As retail investors we shoul thank them for sharing there perspective on a particular company
Now by fy 17 we can finally say that this is a valuable find if same growth is maintained and promoter clarity comes that I think Ayush has nicely summed up as work in progress watch it for growth and any dieviation
Thank you
Varun 2020 portfolio – 2 strategies (22-11-2015)
Finally started flirting with Camlin Fine sciences and Kitex Garments.
Will look to turn either of them into investments in next 2 days as after that I am going for short vacation to Singapore.
Will invite your views on above stocks. Even Elgi equipments started to look interesting.
Varun 2020 portfolio – 2 strategies (22-11-2015)
Hi
Portfolio Update
Due to some finance requirements have to part away with few stocks like Rallis India, NRB bearings and Gati. While the first two have given very good returns with NRB clocking over 200% the same wasn't the story with Gati. Exited Gati with some loss.
In the meanwhile have steadily increased allocation to few stocks in downturns
Axis Bank
Marico
Atul Auto - On Diwali Day
Have reduced some positions in
KPIT at 166 and Care at 1300 to finance above increased allocation
Happy Investing
Diversified Portfolio with growth target of 18-20% CAGR (22-11-2015)
Hi All,
Thanks for few suggestions.
I can understand that, ValuePickr forum mainly looks for small caps and mid caps which can generate 20-25-30% CAGR on annual basis. Reason for having large caps in my portfolio is to protect the downside considering that I do not have very long time frame for my financial goals.
Also, I have learnt in the past that, even such a large cap oriented portfolio can give returns of up to 25% CAGR if stocks were bought when undervalued and sold when get overvalued. I have always followed a stringent process for this and it has worked quite well.
Reason for TCS being high in portfolio is due to investments since IPO days, and comfort with the management, vision and ability to grow in tough conditions. Also, I understand that, now onwards it will not give me 20% CAGR returns hence have reduced it from 25% to about 14%, and may reduce it further. TCS is a high ROE/ROCE business with good cash flows and good dividend yield.
Mutual Funds can generate returns close to this, but I do not have control on the portfolio, and they keep holding overvalued stocks for a long time. I have more control on the portfolio and can follow my own style of investing. I do have separate MF portfolio.
I am slowly learning the art of identifying small caps which can give 25% CAGR returns and hence there are some quality small caps in the portfolio now. Due to tendency of not overpaying for some of the quality names I do not have Page, Gruh, Repco, Ajanta in the portfolio.
Rajoo Engineers Ltd – Mfg of Plastic Extrusion Machinery (22-11-2015)
ICRA has upgraded the long term rating assigned to the Rs. 19.50 crore*
cash credit facility of Rajoo Engineers Ltd (REL)† from [ICRA]BBB- (pronounced ICRA triple B minus) to [ICRA]BBB+ (pronounced ICRA triple B plus). ICRA has also upgraded short term rating assigned to the Rs. 16.50 crore short term fund based facility (sublimit of cash credit facility) of REL from [ICRA]A3 (pronounced ICRA A
three) to [ICRA]A2 (pronounced ICRA A two). The outlook on the long term rating is ‘Stable’.
The upgrade in ratings reflect the continued improvement in the performance of the company as witnessed from steady growth in scale of operations in last two fiscals supported by healthy order book, improved profitability and return indicators, moderation of capital structure and healthy coverage indicators. ICRA notes that the improvement in the financial risk profile had been largely on account of discontinuance of relatively low value additive segments (non woven fabric manufacturing machine and polymer trading). The ratings continue to favorably take into account the longstanding experience of the promoters in the plastic extrusion machinery, and the favorable demand outlook for flexible packaging products in the domestic market. The ratings are also supported by the company’s wide ranging product portfolio and its competitive advantage arising from technological tie-ups with the international entities providing access to the latest technology.
The ratings are, however, constrained by the exposure of company’s profitability to any adverse fluctuations in foreign exchange rates and volatility in raw material prices; however natural hedge provided through import of raw material mitigates the currency fluctuation risk to a certain extent. The ratings also consider the increasing competitive pressures both from organized and unorganized players in the domestic market and import threat from Germany, Italy and China as well as the regulatory risks attached with the ban on plastic packaging.
Company Profile
Incorporated in 1986, Rajoo Engineers Limited (REL), promoted by Mr. C.N. Doshi and Mr. R.N. Doshi, is engaged in manufacturing of plastic extrusion machinery at its plant located at Rajkot, Gujarat. The machinery finds application in the flexible packaging industry. The company designs and manufactures the machines and offers customized solutions as per customers’ requirement. Its current product portfolio includes a wide range of extrusion machinery consisting of mono and multilayer blown film lines, sheet extrusion lines, thermoforming machines, non-woven fabric machines, Polyvinyl
Chloride (PVC) pipeline machines, drip irrigation machines and wooden plastic composite (WPC) machines which can process a wide range of polymers.
Recent Results
For the year ended 31st March 2015, REL has reported an operating income of Rs. 116.67 crore and profit after tax (PAT) of Rs. 5.25 crore as against an operating income of Rs. 101.62 crore and PAT of Rs. 3.46 crore for the year ended 31st March 2014. Further REL has reported operating income of Rs. 19.81 crore and PAT of Rs. 0.90 crore during the period from April 15 to June 15 (unaudited provisional financials).
http://icra.in/Files/Reports/Rationale/Rajoo%20Engineers-R-05102015.pdf
Ajanta Pharma (22-11-2015)
Hello Sandeep,
Thank you for your reply and sorry, I did not form my question well !!
Sometime back u posted below content ~~~
It's heartening to see Ajanta gaining market share in Risperidone in the US market.
Source: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CJm1APEUAAEA4fZ.png:large
Risperidone is a crowded place too; 12-13% market share is quite an achievement. Not clear to me if it is through Breckenridge Pharmaceuticals or through its own front-end sales and marketing team in the US.
So how to know the market share information for a particular drug in US ??
Thank You
Nabendu
Ajanta Pharma (22-11-2015)
Hi Nabendu,
Unforunately, no public source AFAIK. IMS Health tracks prescription/OTC sales and derives market share data (for a particular drug); information is behind paywall.
At times, IMS data may not portray full picture. e.g. snippet of Torrent Pharma Q2FY16 transcript
Source: http://www.torrentpharma.com/download/financials/gen_info/Transcript-Q2-FY-16.pdf
Ambika Cotton Mills (22-11-2015)
US opposes India's latest round of incentives to boost textile exports
NEW DELHI: The United States has opposed India's latest round of incentives to provide a fillip to exports, alleging violation of a global trade rule for export competitiveness in textiles.
Commerce department officials said the US raised this issue more than a week ago, after India increased support for exports of several products including textiles while expanding the scope of the Merchandise Exports from India Scheme (MEIS) on October 30.
The government included exports of cotton fabrics, both woven and knitted, and made-ups to leading markets including African countries under the MEIS. Under the World Trade Organisation's agreement on subsidies and countervailing measures, when the export share of a developing country with per capita income below $1,000 a year touches 3.25% in any product category for two consecutive calendar years it is deemed to have gained "export competitiveness".
Such a country is then required to phase out export subsidies for the items for eight years from the second year of breach. The WTO mandates developing countries to phase out the export subsidies within the eight-year period, preferably in a progressive manner. The WTO had in 2010 asked India to consider phasing out the subsidies for textiles and clothing.
"However, a developing country member shall not increase the level of its export subsidies, and shall eliminate them within a period shorter...when the use of such export subsidies is inconsistent with its development needs," the agreement says.
The US has flagged the issue of export competitiveness in textiles and said that India cannot give additional subsidy during the phase-out period, said an official, requesting not to be identified. Another official, in the Cotton Textiles Export Promotion Council, said India has crossed the export limit and the government is aware of this but the market is moving slow.
"As for the removal of subsidies, we can either gradually phase them out or immediately stop them in 2018 on a pre-decided date," he said.
What will be likely impact of this on Ambika??
Diversified Portfolio with growth target of 18-20% CAGR (21-11-2015)
@gsapte The kind of stocks you have shortlisted and the target you aspire gives me a feeling that it would be better if you buy a mutual fund instead which closely follows the index. SENSEX has historically grown at a CAGR of 17%