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Posts tagged Value Pickr
Cupid Ltd – Helping the world play safe! (18-11-2015)
@ravijain88
Thanks for the prompt reply. I appreciate it!
Any clue on today's rally by Cupid, Anyone!
Syngene International IPO – Views invited (18-11-2015)
Health ministry plans to revamp regulatory rules for biosimilar drugs
By Vikas Dandekar, ET Bureau | 18 Nov, 2015, 04.00AM ISTPost a Comment
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MUMBAI: The health ministry plans to revamp guidelines for approving biosimilar drugs to make the regulatory pathway more robust and sync it with the rapidly evolving global landscape. The guidelines were released three years ago.
Biosimilars are copies of complex drugs, which are based on living cells and 'similar' to an original biologic manufactured by the innovator. These drugs stand distinct from the chemical-based generic drugs that are 'identical' to the originator's compound.
Officials say the new norms are expected to build further on the existing rules. They will be finalised after consultations with the industry, academic institutions and stakeholders like the civil society. "We will put up the draft in public domain and seek views prior to giving a final shape to the new rules," a senior health ministry official said, adding that the ministry aims to finalise the rules by year-end. "A large number of future products will be from biologics origins and it is important to be geared up to examine those filings with clear rules."
The new rules are intended to drill specifically on areas like comparability tests with the reference drug and also address issues such as pharmacovigilance and post-marketing surveillance to report any adverse events.
Health ministry plans to revamp regulatory rules for biosimilar drugs
The existing proposals, called Guidelines on Similar Biologics, were released by the department of biotechnology in 2012. They offer a broad roadmap for lab tests, clinical trials and manufacturing processes. The new norms may set the threshold for the minimum number of patients needed for clinical trials and depending on the drug, the number may be increased. "Some key issues were not specified in the first guidelines, which had created scope for interpretations," an industry executive said.
Biocon chairman Kiran Mazumdar Shaw told ET that the Association of Biotech-led Enterprises (ABLE) is looking forward to the pathway that enables safe and dependable biosimilars. ABLE is the local industry group of biotech players.
Shaw advocated the use of new innovative technologies to ensure patient safety and better treatment outcomes, in line with the efforts followed by drug regulators in developed markets. She said stress should be on establishing a pathway for robust molecular characterization from the initial stages, mitigate risks and assess efficacy to demonstrate non-inferiority of tested compound.
Leading Indian drug makers like Biocon, Dr. Reddy'sBSE -1.89 %, CiplaBSE -0.68 %, Zydus Cadila and Intas are pursuing ambitious programmes to tap the emerging global biosimilars market.
ET View: Focus on Awareness
We need to proceed cautiously. Reportedly, the first biosimilar drug was approved in the US earlier this year. Note, biosimilar drugs are not really perfect copies. It follows that biosimilars are not generic versions of original molecules. Hence, it is vital that prescribers & patients are educated on safety aspect, if need be after trials and tests.
MPS Ltd (18-11-2015)
Thanks Mahesh as always for taking the discourse further. And providing answers to the gaps !
Yes, its a good idea to present Competition data points again to MPS Management, at Conference Calls and other interactions with Management consistently. We did raise this in the Mgmt Q&A at a first level - MPS wanted to see if FY15 stellar margins reported by SPS sustains in FY16 - before responding further on this point.
We do not find inconsistency in the Management commentary, atleast not yet. From our perspective these are the counter-arguments to your thesis.
- We should be careful of comparing Apples to Apples. SPS fits the bill well as it serves the same Customer segment. Newgen doesn't serve the STM market from what I could see, so that shouldn't figure in any rational/objective peer comparison chart (http://www.newgensoft.com/customers/)
- That almost all other players in STM Market report inferior margins than MPS gives credence to MPS observations on margin pressures faced
- It is also consistent with the Publishing Industry dynamics - where most of the large Publishers are struggling with profitability/cost pressures
- We suspect SPS higher margins have to do with a mix of two factors a) captive of Springer (there may be long term contracts) which accounts for 50% of the business b) better productivity/efficiency from automation tool-kits and processes
Any others competitors in STM Market with higher margins that you can point to?
Did you cultivate any contacts in the STM Technology Vendor space? We are now primed to extract the most out of any direct interaction with domain specialist folks
NCL Industries – Resumption of growth? (18-11-2015)
Dear @CommonMan,
Possibility of a cartel has already been discussed in this thread, so such panic is unwarranted.
If you would've read the first 10 posts in this thread, you would've understood that most boarders are here for opportunistic gains with an understanding of risk factors and are not chasing a multibagger blindly.
I know new members like me are not even half good as core VP members but we try to do our bit. The least I expect is that you read our posts before passing judgment.
Regards
Ranvir’s Portfolio (18-11-2015)
Sold my stake in IPCA labs in the price bump up today with modest gains 0f 8-9 percent. That makes IPCA holdings-zero.
Reason- near term trigger of probable USFDA clearance being granted to IPCA being priced in, in the last 2 days of up move ( I think so). Post this event...i do not see any substantial sales and profit recovery in the next 3-4 months. And even if it happens, the company looks richly valued.
Converted my IPCA holdings to DB Corp at CMP.....as i think the q3 results for DB corp are expected to be good due to Navratras falling in q3 this year as opposed to q2 last year.
Also with the implementation of 7th pay comission, advt. revenues are expected to go up (although that may take some time, probably 6 months kind of time frame)
The whole transaction makes- IPCA-zero, DB corp- 6% of total portfolio.
Ranvir’s Portfolio (18-11-2015)
Sold my stake in IPCA labs in the price bump up today with modest gains 0f 8-9 percent. That makes IPCA holdings-zero.
Reason- near term trigger of probable USFDA clearance being granted to IPCA being priced in, in the last 2 days of up move ( I think so). Post this event...i do not see any substantial sales and profit recovery in the next 3-4 months. And even if it happens, the company looks richly valued.
Converted my IPCA holdings to DB Corp at CMP.....as i think the q3 results for DB corp are expected to be good due to Navratras falling in q3 this year as opposed to q2 last year.
Also with the implementation of 7th pay comission, advt. revenues are expected to go up (although that may take some time, probably 6 months kind of time frame)
The whole transaction makes- IPCA-zero, DB corp- 6% of total portfolio.
Shree Renuka Sugar Turn around story (18-11-2015)
Shree Renuka Sugars (CMP 16 Rs.) is one of the largest sugar producers in the world, the leading manufacturer of sugar in India, and one of the largest sugar refiners in the world
Sugar:
The Company operates eleven mills globally with a total crushing capacity of 20.7 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) or 94,520 tonnes crushed per day (TCD). The Company operates seven sugar mills in India with a total crushing capacity of 7.1 MTPA or 35,000 TCD and two port based sugar refineries with capacity of 1.7 MTPA. The Company also has significant presence in South Brazil, through acquisitions of Renuka Vale do Ivai and Renuka do Brasil. Renuka Vale do Ivai was acquired on 19th March 2010 and is 100% owned by the Company. The Company currently holds 59.4% equity stake in Renuka do Brasil which was acquired on 7th July 2010. The combined crushing capacity of the Brazilian subsidiary companies is 13.6 MTPA. The Company is the only sugar producer globally with year round crushing due to complementary seasons in India and Brazil.
Ethanol:
The Company manufactures fuel grade ethanol that can be blended with petrol. Global distillery capacity is 6,240 KL per day (KLPD) with Indian distillery capacity at 930 KLPD (630 KLPD from molasses to ethanol and 300 KLPD from rectified spirit to ethanol) and Brazil distillery capacity at 5,310 KLPD.
KBK Chem-Engineering (100% subsidiary) facilitates turnkey distillery, ethanol and bio-fuel plant solutions.
Power:
The Company produces power from bagasse (a sugar cane by product) for captive consumption and sale to the state grid in India and Brazil. Total Cogeneration capacity increased to 555MW with exportable surplus of 356 MW. Indian operations produce 242 MW with exportable surplus of 135 MW and Brazilian operations produce 313 MW with exportable surplus of 221 MW.
The Company’s presence in the largest sugar producing country, Brazil and the largest sugar consuming country, India provides access to information on movements in market price and the know-how of the global supply-demand situation. The Company’s operations in Brazil are favoured by low operating cost, high scalability and highly conducive climatic conditions. The Company’s Indian operations are present in sugar rich belt of South and West India, ensuring high sugarcane yields and sugar recovery from cane. The strategically located port-based refineries in Gujarat and West Bengal states of India cover India, South Asia and Middle-East markets competitively.
Promoter:
Narendra Murukumbi's rags to riches story is inspiring. He is only 46 years old and an IIM graduate. Approx. 10,000 famers became shareholder in company's IPO which changed the relationship between the farmers and the sugar mill from supplier to that of a shareholder.
Annual results in brief (Rs crore)
Mar ' 15 Mar ' 14 Mar ' 13 Mar ' 12 Dec ' 11
Sales 5,744.20 6,522.40 6,395.40 6,362.10 5,381.80
Operating profit 176.30 140.00 594.80 738.80 542.40
Interest 336.20 318.20 367.10 369.90 272.70
Gross profit -156.00 -123.50 242.70 370.00 270.70
EPS (Rs) -3.18 -6.95 0.77 1.25 1.17
Shree Renuka is an innovative company and there are many things I like about the company:
- Leader in India's fuel ethanol business with nearly 21% market share. New ethanol tenders are expected to price at Rs. 26
- Largest raw sugar refining capacity in India. Sugar refining capacity helps enhance the company's asset utilization by processing raw sugar during off-season.
- The company is the second largest exporter of sugar from india with a presence in the Middle East, South East Asia and East Africa. It exports almost 20% of India's international sugar trade
- The company directly markets sugar to institutional buyers instead of selling to wholesale agents and dealers. The company is a sugar 'supplier of choice' amongst companies that produce carbonated soft drinks, fruit juices, choclates, baby foods and dairy products. Its clients include Coca Cola, Pepsi, ITC, Britannia, Nestle and Cadbury, among others. The company sells premium refined sugar.
- Company enjoys certain advantages on account of its West and South Indian location. It has plants in Maharashtra and Karnataka. It enjoys a longer crushing season (over 200 days, starting from October to May), higher recovery (10-20% higher than other regions), proximity to port and lower sugarcane prices due to much lesser state interference in setting sugarcane prices.
- In order to diversify it's revenue base, the company has acuired a 80% stake in KBK Chem-Engineering Pvt. Ltd. engaged in providing turnkey solutions (EPC contracts) in the field of distilleries, ethanol plants and biofuels.
Conclusion:
With the collapse of global sugar prices, financial performance started deteriorating and put the company to near bankrupt position.
But now it has started turning the corner in line with global prices and many Sops in the offing by Present government including Ethanol blending, export incentives and others.
The Company has witnessed a strong Revenue CAGR of 55% and EBITDA CAGR of 58% from FY2006 to FY2012. The strong financial performance has ensured consistent returns for shareholders with an average Return on Equity of approx. 20% from FY 2006 to FY 2012. The Company’s strong Management team has delivered consistently to ensure growth through successful completion of strategic acquisitions.
In addition to compnay’s efficient management, underlying reason for such a strong performce is sugar prices at global level almost tripled during this period from 11 c/lb to 35 c/lb. Considering cycle of 3-5 years in sugar sector prices have now bottomed out at 11 c/lb and again started rising above 15 c/lb. Up surge in sugar prices after consecutive surplus year after year has forced in efficient players out of market. And those who have survived will derive benefit in coming time with prices likely to touch upper end of cycle and may surpass 35c/lb in two to three years.
Shree renuka with improved efficiency and synergy is likely to repeat strong CAGR of 55% again for coming 3-to 5 years. Stock prices are likely to increase 8 to 10 times from present level of 16 Rs.
Shree Renuka Sugar Turn around story (18-11-2015)
Shree Renuka Sugars (CMP 16 Rs.) is one of the largest sugar producers in the world, the leading manufacturer of sugar in India, and one of the largest sugar refiners in the world
Sugar:
The Company operates eleven mills globally with a total crushing capacity of 20.7 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) or 94,520 tonnes crushed per day (TCD). The Company operates seven sugar mills in India with a total crushing capacity of 7.1 MTPA or 35,000 TCD and two port based sugar refineries with capacity of 1.7 MTPA. The Company also has significant presence in South Brazil, through acquisitions of Renuka Vale do Ivai and Renuka do Brasil. Renuka Vale do Ivai was acquired on 19th March 2010 and is 100% owned by the Company. The Company currently holds 59.4% equity stake in Renuka do Brasil which was acquired on 7th July 2010. The combined crushing capacity of the Brazilian subsidiary companies is 13.6 MTPA. The Company is the only sugar producer globally with year round crushing due to complementary seasons in India and Brazil.
Ethanol:
The Company manufactures fuel grade ethanol that can be blended with petrol. Global distillery capacity is 6,240 KL per day (KLPD) with Indian distillery capacity at 930 KLPD (630 KLPD from molasses to ethanol and 300 KLPD from rectified spirit to ethanol) and Brazil distillery capacity at 5,310 KLPD.
KBK Chem-Engineering (100% subsidiary) facilitates turnkey distillery, ethanol and bio-fuel plant solutions.
Power:
The Company produces power from bagasse (a sugar cane by product) for captive consumption and sale to the state grid in India and Brazil. Total Cogeneration capacity increased to 555MW with exportable surplus of 356 MW. Indian operations produce 242 MW with exportable surplus of 135 MW and Brazilian operations produce 313 MW with exportable surplus of 221 MW.
The Company’s presence in the largest sugar producing country, Brazil and the largest sugar consuming country, India provides access to information on movements in market price and the know-how of the global supply-demand situation. The Company’s operations in Brazil are favoured by low operating cost, high scalability and highly conducive climatic conditions. The Company’s Indian operations are present in sugar rich belt of South and West India, ensuring high sugarcane yields and sugar recovery from cane. The strategically located port-based refineries in Gujarat and West Bengal states of India cover India, South Asia and Middle-East markets competitively.
Promoter:
Narendra Murukumbi's rags to riches story is inspiring. He is only 46 years old and an IIM graduate. Approx. 10,000 famers became shareholder in company's IPO which changed the relationship between the farmers and the sugar mill from supplier to that of a shareholder.
Annual results in brief (Rs crore)
Mar ' 15 Mar ' 14 Mar ' 13 Mar ' 12 Dec ' 11
Sales 5,744.20 6,522.40 6,395.40 6,362.10 5,381.80
Operating profit 176.30 140.00 594.80 738.80 542.40
Interest 336.20 318.20 367.10 369.90 272.70
Gross profit -156.00 -123.50 242.70 370.00 270.70
EPS (Rs) -3.18 -6.95 0.77 1.25 1.17
Shree Renuka is an innovative company and there are many things I like about the company:
- Leader in India's fuel ethanol business with nearly 21% market share. New ethanol tenders are expected to price at Rs. 26
- Largest raw sugar refining capacity in India. Sugar refining capacity helps enhance the company's asset utilization by processing raw sugar during off-season.
- The company is the second largest exporter of sugar from india with a presence in the Middle East, South East Asia and East Africa. It exports almost 20% of India's international sugar trade
- The company directly markets sugar to institutional buyers instead of selling to wholesale agents and dealers. The company is a sugar 'supplier of choice' amongst companies that produce carbonated soft drinks, fruit juices, choclates, baby foods and dairy products. Its clients include Coca Cola, Pepsi, ITC, Britannia, Nestle and Cadbury, among others. The company sells premium refined sugar.
- Company enjoys certain advantages on account of its West and South Indian location. It has plants in Maharashtra and Karnataka. It enjoys a longer crushing season (over 200 days, starting from October to May), higher recovery (10-20% higher than other regions), proximity to port and lower sugarcane prices due to much lesser state interference in setting sugarcane prices.
- In order to diversify it's revenue base, the company has acuired a 80% stake in KBK Chem-Engineering Pvt. Ltd. engaged in providing turnkey solutions (EPC contracts) in the field of distilleries, ethanol plants and biofuels.
Conclusion:
With the collapse of global sugar prices, financial performance started deteriorating and put the company to near bankrupt position.
But now it has started turning the corner in line with global prices and many Sops in the offing by Present government including Ethanol blending, export incentives and others.
The Company has witnessed a strong Revenue CAGR of 55% and EBITDA CAGR of 58% from FY2006 to FY2012. The strong financial performance has ensured consistent returns for shareholders with an average Return on Equity of approx. 20% from FY 2006 to FY 2012. The Company’s strong Management team has delivered consistently to ensure growth through successful completion of strategic acquisitions.
In addition to compnay’s efficient management, underlying reason for such a strong performce is sugar prices at global level almost tripled during this period from 11 c/lb to 35 c/lb. Considering cycle of 3-5 years in sugar sector prices have now bottomed out at 11 c/lb and again started rising above 15 c/lb. Up surge in sugar prices after consecutive surplus year after year has forced in efficient players out of market. And those who have survived will derive benefit in coming time with prices likely to touch upper end of cycle and may surpass 35c/lb in two to three years.
Shree renuka with improved efficiency and synergy is likely to repeat strong CAGR of 55% again for coming 3-to 5 years. Stock prices are likely to increase 8 to 10 times from present level of 16 Rs.
MPS Ltd (18-11-2015)
Donald, Ayush, Rohit, Sandeep and all others -- excellent work....you all are doing great service to the investor community and valuepickr has progressed very well -- infact at that stage where hardly few forums have reached....such interactive sessions go a long way in building/raising our conviction as also challenging our analysis again and again to check whether we are on right track or not.
Although went through the entire 2 hour session at one go but wasn't able to absorb entire thing well because of constraints of the device on which I heard (ipad)....but still was able to pick some queries which even I have went through at the time of doing research on MPS and therefore have answers for them....Thought of putting them here for members benefit....
(1) Rgdg. Mr. Nishith Arora's previous venture which he sold off, it was International Typesetting Corporation (ITC) which was acquired by Infomedia in 2006 at INR 52 cr.. At that time its turnover was INR 16 cr..
(2) Rgdg. size of Mr. Arora's BPO venture before acquiring MPS (which he is talking about as operated at high margins) and its margins, maximum scale which his BPO venture reached was INR 20.2 cr. and EBITDA margin range in which it worked was 35-46 % after first year minor loss.
(3) Rgdg. peer Innodata debt status, as at FY14 it was a net cash rich company.
(4) Rgdg. volume growth, although management is fairly transparent and seems perfectly genuine, there seems to be some disconnect here. With VP team now having detailed access to management, I seriously think we need a more clear answer to this by presenting the peer data points to the management. As I have pointed previously too in this thread, SPS is having no pricing pressures and from the YoY value growth that we are seeing for Newgen, TNQ, Amnet, Crest, etc. there seems to an almost impossible case for severe pricing pressure for them as for them to achieve such a value growth with severe pricing pressure that MPS management is talking about, their volume growth should be higher than 50 % YoY which is unlikely in this industry and at the scale they are operating. This is the only point on which I feel management's words don't match with actual figures that we are seeing and that we need to accept being genuine analysers.
Will go through the entire session again next week and in case have any other answers to fellow members' queries will post them.
Rgds.
Discl. - Invested in MPS.