Current year earning should be around 15... on a reasonable PE of 25, it should be trading around 375. The stock looks like undervalued after Q2 result.
Posts tagged Value Pickr
Shah portfolio check (02-11-2015)
Hi Friends,
I have been in markets since 2008 fall when I was 18
I started similar to many other folks in the market. I thought I knew everything about the markets. I use to buy and sell watching some analyst on cnbc and zee business. The only thin I knew about a stock was price and p/e.
Until I came to USA in 2010 and when I first heard about buffet and read his annual shareholder report, I relialized how naive I was.
As a gujarati Bania and being from a business family (though my father never told me that I was buying all junk stocks in 2008-09), I quickly learnt how the markets work and why some business (Dhandho) are valued higher than the other.
I had my fair share of failures like Deccan chronicle (lost 95%), geodesic, 3i infotech, gvk power, reliance power and some more.
I had a few success too. Britannia, NBCC, Aurobindo and my current portfolio.
I am sharing my current portfolio and wish to hear your comments. I do run concentrated portfolio.
Can fin homes - 33%
J&k bank -11%
Kajaria ceramics - 11%
Granules India -9%
Bajaj Corp -8%
Eros international- 8%
India cements -7%
PTL enterprises-7%
Wonderla holidays -6%
Keeping an eye on Raymond's, aarti drugs, Astra microwave , century plyboard, kse.
Economic Value added (01-11-2015)
Sriram - True, As mentioned earlier a discounted EVA and DCF will yield the same result. and you're right eva is nothing but a dcf that takes into account capital costs.
However EVA and dcf still share a common problem. They require one to make projections into the future, and discount future earnings to today. So the final answer therefore is highly sensitive to the assumptions made.
And to be honest how can someone (sell side equity research analysts) possibly claim to forecast a company's capital structure 5 years from now? Or anticipate growth with a reasonable degree of accuracy 5 - 10 years out. In 2002 if someone told me that 5 years from now, even the most economically disadvantaged people in India would have a cell phone, I would have called them crazy. So if I were trying to do a DCF or an EVA analysis on Airtel, I would have been wrong by a lot.
My personal view on valuation is that no matter what one does / method one uses, their forecasts / valuation will be wrong. So i just use it as a go - no go filter.
Shaily Engineering Plastic (01-11-2015)
Looks very impressive numbers...record quarterly EBIDTA and EBIDTA Margins (17.8%)...
Disc - Invested
Shaily Engineering Plastic (01-11-2015)
Looks very impressive numbers...record quarterly EBIDTA and EBIDTA Margins (17.8%)...
Disc - Invested
Arvind limited – a triple play of RM tailwinds, brand growth and de-merger play/re-rating (01-11-2015)
Hello everyone,
I was reading the annual report of the company and also read the annual report of the material subsidiary Arvind Lifestyle Brands Ltd. Something quite daunting that stood out was that Arvind Lifestyle (the branded garment subsidiary) has almost 600 crores worth of receivables (all from non-related parties so no inter-company transaction). This was on a turnover of 2100 crores. I would imagine that since their business is B2C in this company, receivables should be quite low.
Would really appreciate it if someone could help me understand this.
I am attaching the link to the subsidiary's 2015 annual report here:
Lactose India – Unique Play on Lactulose & Contract Manufacturer for MNCs (01-11-2015)
Their GP Margins have gone from 65% in 2014 to 95% this quarter, do you guys have any idea why?
Economic Value added (01-11-2015)
Yeah, sure. Would love to contribute in whatever way I can.
KDDL (Ethos Watches) – Scalable business model at an inflection point? (01-11-2015)
Thanks for pointing out.
The most heartening thing was the ethos part. Other businesses are not where I am interested. That too they claim this is a lean period.
H1: Revenue up 26% to 148 crores and same store sales growth of 18%.
Lactose India – Unique Play on Lactulose & Contract Manufacturer for MNCs (01-11-2015)
Very nice results indeed.
Thanks Raj for updating. This looks like stock for long innings