Hi Ashish
Welcome to the forum. There is already a reasonably detailed thread on HMVL. It's quite informative and discusses most of the points you elucidate in detail. Have a look. Might be helpful.
Sachit
Hi Ashish
Welcome to the forum. There is already a reasonably detailed thread on HMVL. It's quite informative and discusses most of the points you elucidate in detail. Have a look. Might be helpful.
Sachit
I know some famous investors have been making apples-to-oranges comparison between India's mortgage-to-GDP ratio and that of developed countries like USA.
Lets try to put that in perspective.... How fair / unfair is such comparisons??? Two key things come to my mind.....
What the former means is that the EMI on a 15 year housing loan in India would be ~ 2x of the EMI on the same housing loan in USA/Germany.... So, in effect on a like-to-like basis, India's mortgage-to-GDP ratio has to be multiplied by 2x, which makes it 20%
What the latter means is that only a far smaller number of the people contributing to India's GDP are credit-worthy. For a like-to-like comparison - you may want to shave off at least 2/3rds of India's GDP in the mortgage-to-GDP ratio.... which in effect means that the mortgate-to-GDP ratio goes up another 3x (that is, from 20% to 60%)....
If you take these 2 factors into account, you will realize why a 10% mortgage-to-GDP ratio in India, is probably worse than a 70% mortgage-to-GDP ratio in USA/Germany.....
Just a word of caution to people who have excessively high allocations to Gruh/Repco - Because these lend to the borrowers from the informal sector, they are a double-edge sword - don't find yourself in the wrong place when the wrong edge of the sword swings towards you...
Disc. Not invested. This is not a recommendation - please do your own research.
HELLO GUYS.
THANKS FOR YOU FOR LETTING ME A PART OF THIS WONDERFUL FORUM.
LET ME INTRODUCE MYSELF.
I AM ASHISH GUPTA, AGE 21
STARTED INVESTING IN 2010.
LOST 2LAC IN 2011 AND THAT LED ME TO INTROSPECT AND VALUE INVESTING.
OK NEVER MIND, TODAY I WANT TO DISCUSS ONE STOCK WITH YOU.
HMVL
PROS:
1.CONSTANTLY INCREASING OPM FROM 17.07 IN FY10 TO 20.33 IN FY15
NET PROFIT MARGINS INCREASE FROM 10.31 TO 17.20.
ROE INCREASE FROM 14% TO 19.19%.
MARKET CAP OF RS.1650 CR AND NET CASH OF RS 576CR.
BIHAR ELECTIONS ON ANVIL.
INSPITE OF GENERAL ELECTION ADSPENDS IN Q1FY15,
IT SHOWED A REMARKABLE INCREASE IN Q1FY16.
PROFIT INCREASED BY 23%.
DECREASING PRICE DIFFERENTIAL BETWEEN ADRATES OF ENGLISH AND HINDI NEWSPAPERS.
INREASING READERSHIP AND CIRCULATION REVENUE.
CONS:
1. NO SPECIFIC AGENDA FOR DEPLOYEMENT OF CASH HOARD.
THIS STOCK DESERVES A DEEP LOOK AS IT IS AVAILABLE ON PE OF 10.
Note that in towels India gained but not at the expense of China, whose share has also jumped from 23% to 26%. In sheets though the dominance is clearly visible.
Dear Dhawanil sir,
Thanks for your valuable inputs to this thread and to the forum. I have been invested in Piramal for few years and I use a rough back of envelope valuation. Very glad to know it is in lines of senior investors like your's.
Query - I am backing out investments (non Shriram) to arrive at true business value and comparing it against standalone valuation that includes NBFC book.
Are these investments different (via Piramal Realty) or they are part of NBFC books leading to double counting.
Will appreciate if you could share your views. Thanks for your time.
Regards,
Sai
Indeed its good demand zone , i believe that MSS has changed from bull to bear and rallies are opportunity to exit or sell .
230-239 is good support on weekly charts. It is consolidating at that level for last 10 days.
Let's see how Nifty supports the same.
Actually, what I meant was the opposite (bear to sideways/bull)
3 sessions ago, MSS made a long white candle with volumes. I am under the belief that it indicates change in trend in the medium term.
The charts aren't conclusive yet but 230 seems like a good support level.
I thought that they have a good brand there. Don't you think they can leverage Charminar Brand for AAC ? Also L1 orders are meant for Government, I was talking about consumer play in AAC blocks. I think there are many businesses with little moats but great brand (brands become the moat). Don't you think they can do that? I have not done any scuttle but as I was based in North India earlier and have recently migrated to Bangalore.
@varvp14 just for informative purpose want to ask your view on Edelweiss. I just checked screener for it. 2 things which bothers me is Promoter Pledging [~53 %] and its D/E 7.46. Doesn't these things is a concern. Again I am asking this just for informative purpose as I am a naive and want to understand the thinking proces. Thanks in advance
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