If possible can give your technical view on Torrent Pharma. I am accumulating it now.
Posts tagged Value Pickr
Forensics and the art of triangulation (21-09-2015)
Here's another alleged swindler - R Subramanian of Subhiksha fame - arrested in a different capacity.
His namesake - Sundaresha Subramanian has a nice report here - Viswapriya case. R Subramanian had luminaries on the Board - R Narayanan, former chairman of Life Insurance Corporation; Raghavan, Retd chairman, Indian Bank, Rajaratnam, Retd Commissioner, Appellate Tribunal, High Court of Madras.This was the case in Satyam (prior to fraud disclosure) as well - the Board among other great greats was one Mr Krishna Palepu - a Professor at Harvard.
Mr Palepu's CV on his Harvard wall then read as follows:
"Professor Palepu's work focuses on how to make corporate boards more effective, and on improving corporate disclosure. Professor Palepu teaches these topics in several HBS executive educationprograms aimed at members of corporate boards: "Making Corporate Boards More Effective," "Audit Committees in a New Era of Governance," and "Compensation Committees: New Challenges, New Solutions." He also co-led Harvard Business School's Corporate Governance, Leadership, and Values initiative, launched in response to the recent wave of corporate scandals and governance failures." (Italics mine)
I wrote an email to him but quite expectedly got no response! It was sheer irony of the highest order that a Professor of Corporate Governance be sitting on the Board of the largest fraud firm, and in the Audit Committee
Warm regards,
Varun 2020 portfolio – 2 strategies (21-09-2015)
I've been invested in Tata Motors for quite some time and added more when it was at 100ish levels ( pre-split), so yes, it has given me very good returns in last few years and I recently exited at 500+ ! What you mention about driver-less car is true, but that is to me a little beyond the current issues in China. Remember that their recent great profitability was quite a lot due to China, which accounts now for 25% of their revenues.
I also do not overlook the fact that Tata Motors needs cash constantly to keep up growth and that they're not doing as well in domestic market with their local brands. In fact the last time they offered rights at 330, the stock dived way below that. In last 15 years, they have sought money 3 times from capital markets.
Varun 2020 portfolio – 2 strategies (20-09-2015)
Arun - Tata Motors has a great history. JLR is a recent addition to their business. It has a wealth creating chart and has made several investors who are holding it for decades quite wealthy. Even with Zero sales in China the stock is a clear buy. The big structural change and disruption acc to me is not wrt China now but shift in future to driver less cars for all premium car makers. That's a bigger threat than a small issue like China.
Varun 2020 portfolio – 2 strategies (20-09-2015)
Vivek - Kaveri seems to be making a base between 400-500. Make take a little longer time due to weak market conditions. There was a lot of selling happened by IDFC and promoters in range of 800-1000 making chart patterns weak. Add to it below expectation results and not a good forecast for rest of year. It remains to be seen whether IDFC has fully exited the counter or not by now. The change of guard at IDFC has spelt some bad times for this stock.
Anyways going through their quarterly presentation and annual report gives me enough confidence that the stock will bounce back sooner than most people expect it to. Its in a very niche business with high profit margins and huge entry barriers. The cash on books gives a comfort as well. I guess promoter's haven't done anything wrong. They are just undecided and being cautious considering the outlook in distributing the cash to shareholders. Give business the time. Time is a wonderful friend of good business and a enemy for a bad business.
In case I will have spare cash in future I will avg down my positions - currently my avg is 783. This stock has given me huge profits thrice. I have entered at near around 800 and sold at 950-1000 thrice in my trading portfolio before finally deciding to invest as core stock when it again came down.
Kwality Ltd. – Kwality Stock (20-09-2015)
Hi,
I also pondered on this stock considering its valuation and market share. There is a huge margin of safety as far as valuations are concerned.
Sales have been consistently growing, crossing 5800 Cr in FY 15. This I guess is top most by a private player in dairy sector after cooperatives such as Amul (20K Cr), Mother Dairy etc.
EBIDTA - close to 10% - better than peers ranging in 5 to 6 %.
Historically company has been in B2B sector processing milk for Amul and later foraying into supplying milk products to organized retailers.
The present business mix is 70% B2B and 30% B2C along with 61% non-branded sales and 39% branded sales (Dairy Best).
The focus of the company according to recent presentation seems to be on
- Direct Procurement (presently only 15% is direct and target 50%).
- Focus on retail business - transforming from commoditised player to branded one - drivers are value added products, brand development, retail network strengthening
Debt levels are high but as voiced, considering growth these are justified.
The important aspect is that company tried raising funds by diluting stake twice
- Jan 2014 - Rabo Equity Advisors - Funds 500Cr @ Valuations 3500 Cr approx
- Sep 2011 - Funds 500Cr to 1000Cr - Either debt or equity
It would be worthy to find reasons for inability to do so since many other dairy companies raise funds at much better valuations except those were already in retail market chase.
http://www.vccircle.com/news/others/2014/01/21/news-roundup-kumar-birla-plans-sell-minacs-rs-1600cr
Also, there have been issues like operator scam etc in script where 50+ entities were barred from operating. The chart shows this with majestic fall of Nov '2011. Though the promoters seems to have come out clean, market still has given them clean-chit i guess considering valuations.
Heritage Dairy - trading at 29X
Prabhat Dairy listing tomorrow - 40X
Many other including Tirumala, Parag raised PE money at very good valuations in the past. It's been golden period as far as fund raising is considered for dairy companies. Though Kwality raised debt, it failed to raise equity.
http://www.moneycontrol.com/stocks/reports/kwality-presentation-upto-march-31-2015-1729161.html
Looking forward to inputs.
Disclosure - Invested.
Sintex – Improving Sales & Profitability (20-09-2015)
would love to understand your thoughts on teh repeated governance concerns that keep arising in sintex - esp the latest one about zap infratech being sold to a related company for debentures and terms of debentures being changed without informing shareholders. These adventures keep acting as a drag on any potential re-rating of the stock and the stock trades at rock bottom valuations.
I am invested in sintex
Cupid Ltd – Helping the world play safe! (20-09-2015)
Just add to that if we can find out what is the succession planning for the current chairman
Also how is the response from the female users about the effectiveness of this product
Varun 2020 portfolio – 2 strategies (20-09-2015)
I've been nibbling at KPIT and CARE, for precisely the same reasons as you mention above. These companies are going to stay and seem to have hit a temporary road hump, the former in terms of sentiment due to one bad quarter and the latter possibly in terms of Amtek Auto.
I'm a little mixed on Tata Motors because I have no way yet to determine whether or not their Chinese setback is temporary or is more of a structural change, with local Chinese models starting to take share. While premium branding of JLR remains, its hard at this point for me to determine whether that will restore market share in future, or will yield to local Chinese competition. Perhaps this stock needs a little bit more margin of safety.
Ranvir’s Portfolio (20-09-2015)
Ranvir sir, the disclosure of your portfolio is crystal clear. I do hope all our members follow the same in the interest of novice members.