@hitesh2710 - no one can put in words the story of a stock or the gist of a long term conviction BETTER than you.
SUPERBLY composed message. Take a bow.
@hitesh2710 - no one can put in words the story of a stock or the gist of a long term conviction BETTER than you.
SUPERBLY composed message. Take a bow.
Asian Granito AR2015 is treat to read. The amount of information provided in the report is good for a small cap. I liked the tone of AR2015. They want to scale up their revenue to 2000Cr . I liked their focus on quartz business. This is going to be a good game changer. I see a good amount of household of middle class(higher income) moving to quartz. I like another fact that promoters are taking salary of 26L and hired COO with salary 70L+ . The experienced person can add more value to business. Intent looks good. They have started a showroom in Southafrica.
Disc:- Invested from 74 level. Averaged up as well. 2% of portfolio holding.
PI Inds provides a lot of information in its concalls and there's even an interview of Mr Mayank Singhal post q1 results at foll link. http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/results-boardroom/targetingtopline-growth18-20fy16-pi-industries_1391177.html
Now coming to the business itself, CSM business order book is close to 600 million USD which translates to around 4000 crores. In FY 15, more than 50% revenues came from CSM and management aims to take this as high as possible.
Some details I could make out from concall is that management aims to have blended growth of 18-20% in topline and over a period of time improve margins. Two plants are going to be commissioned in fy 16 at Jambusar SEZ one in end sep and other in end dec. Both of them should help propel the growth trajectory of CSM business. If one looks at past track record of CSM business over past few years, its on a roll.
On agrochem side, company aims to keep launching new products at regular intervals. Their flagship brands like Osheen, Biovita, and some others are doing quite well.
For those interested concall provides a lot of details to get a better idea about company's prospects. I dont think the AGM updates would be much different from those provided in q1 concalls. But prior to any major event like the US FED meet, many a times some fund managers or HNI investors do plan to go light into the event in the anticipation of any volatility and selling pressure. that could be a cause of yesterday's selling. But as mentioned in the previous post, much of supply was absorbed above 600 kind of levels.
I think companies like PI Inds need to be viewed as a multi year story rather than bothering too much about day to day movements and news flows. A few days back the company's market cap was higher by almost 10-15% as compared to now. That doesnt alter the company's fundamentals.
If I am invested the question I ask myself is DO I WANT TO SELL MY HOLDING NOW? Now if its a multi year story for me I am not going to sell out now. Temporary price movements should be taken in one's stride and are only notional profit/loss.
Those who want to buy or add more would find such opportunities as a god sent gift.
Those sitting on the sidelines would keep debating ad nauseum.
disc: Invested.
your take on kaveri at cmp Varun?
Hey Shivansh,
First of all thank you very much for your inputs. It is great to learn number game from veterans.
The figure is 89 Cr and what I could understand from your input is that there is 15 Cr of free cash for this year sitting at the Balance Sheet of the Company.
Further Net cash flow from / (used in) operating activities are 105.60 Cr while Net cash flow from / (used in) investing activities are (63.15 Cr) which shows FCF 42.15 Cr for FY 2014-15.
Hi Gaurav,
Thanks for sharing the annual report.
Let's see the breakup of the 8.9 Cr which looks like a huge jump.
In 8.9 we have 2.5 of the previous year and 6.3 of the present year. The 6.3 comprises of the 4.8 cr proceeds from the borrowings. Hence one should see the cash and cash equivalents in the balance sheet in the light of debt taken by the company.
For checking out the value creation stuff you can check if the company is generating free cash flow year on year( FCF is basically the left out cash after taking care of the operational need and capex requirement of the company). An average for last three year can be taken in this case.
Again thanks for sharing this company, we only learn from cross-learning & nobody is expert in anything if he is a life long learner.
Regards
Shivansh Mishra
Hey Jitu,
Thanks a lot for sharing small yet powerful link to check authenticity.
Can you also please share more insights on operator driven stock to help me analyse stocks in a better manner?
Thanks!!!
There were rumours that Vasan Eye Care was a front, and so were rumours of another firm for which the Veritas analyst got arrested - Negative stock report lands analyst in jail
I once met the MD of a claimed 100 cr Hyderabad based software firm to sell my software product. He asked me to come over to his office. These were the days of STPI and 100% tax exemption on software exports. I went up a shady building in Ameerpet and lo and behold, I found a 5000 sq ft large room dimly lit, arranged like a classroom, with about 100 people. The MD's room was the only cubicle; and even to my naive self something just did not add up. He told me he generates 100 crores with just that room. You either had to think he had some terrific business or that he was looking for a sucker.
Later a friend told me that many 'software' firms generate fake export invoices to bring back unaccounted money sent abroad, legitimately and free from tax . These offices are just 'show baazi'.
I also recall going to Satyam's accounts department on business through someone close to Ramalinga Raju in early 2002. The department looked like a very small Govt office with files stacked up the ceiling. I was of course in awe of the firm and Ramalinga Raju and just thought this is how business is done
In any case I think the SEBI order on Satyam dated July 15 2014 is very useful for forensic buffs (Sebi orders are generally useful) to learn the inner workings. I am attaching the same here.
Satyam order by sebi.pdf (1.1 MB)
Just read an article with an interesting take on financial numbers. Decided to test it on these companies.
@Sambath
I find your work outstanding and detailed. And unlike a lot, you do not seem to have a lot of endowment bias and make a balance case for it.
the key will be to find out details of this arrangement with chettinad group for quartz mines. And for the record, chettinad group is very close to AIADMK in tamil nadu. infact, her foster son's marriage took place in theri schools and offices bringing the entire city to a stand still.
http://www.telegraphindia.com/1150527/jsp/nation/story_22396.jsp#.VfqUQd-qqko
and recently there was a mega raid in their offices
why would someone like that would sell to pokarna at what seems like prima facie, lower than market price is not something I have an answer to.
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