agree . v few investors i know have put over 10% of their total nw in equities.I have no investment other than in equities ( other than primary house) even FDs or insurance.I also believe in concentrated bets .However its not as easy as it may sound - I will not advise this for many other investors.I think the key is that when you bet in such a concentrated manner ( 100% of one's networth in equities that too in a few stocks say 4 or 5 ) one must track the co intimately and be willing to exit at signs of trouble .Else this approach can be self destructing.
Posts tagged Value Pickr
Cupid Ltd – Helping the world play safe! (14-09-2015)
I have been a regular reader of highly informative posts on Cupid. I would like to thank all members esp Rajeevji for contributing & keeping everyone updated. I am an investor in Cupid & Cupid is a sizable portion of my portfolio (offcourse not as big as Rajeevji
) ... in recent past I had visited the company to meet Mr Garg and I would like to share my impression with you all. He lived a comfortable life in US and is a self made human being having tried his hands in many businesses. Also all must be aware that he has some vision & hearing troubles. To leave all comforts in US & after being independently wealthy and coming to sit in some MIDC in India requires high level of motivation. I felt he is the perfect guy whom u should trust ur money with. He is highly conservative in business & will not resort to debts & will only invest in businesses like sanitary napkins etc only when he sees a profit. He also likes to travel a lot and is very philosophical about life.
Regarding the fundamentals of the company you all know much more than me.. They r very sound, debt free, good margins etc. INR fall & Rubber fall should result in increase in margins- thats my understanding. Also they are addressing a huge global problem & they r the lowest cost producers. So whenever there is additional demand company is very well placed to capitalise on it. All current fundamentals r well known to the market but as George Soros says "Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux and money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected"... many new unexpected positive developments can happen in Cupid. Also thr annual report states that they expect large orders to come. Any new order of a good size will only to lead to re-enforcing a very strong stock trend. Again company is addressing such a large global problem & I find 220 crs market cap quite low to be honest..
Forensics and the art of triangulation (14-09-2015)
There is no one single silver bullet answer. The best way to find out is to compare it against peers and check for oneself as to how reasonable the numbers are.
I am attaching a link to glaucus which has a short thesis on rolta
https://glaucusresearch.com/
Some of the most common sensical things that one looks for are
materially large items in BS or PL that make a big impact. For eg., say cash in satyam's case that was a big chunk of the overall BS or huge capital expenditure. triangulate this with things like "other income" or 'cash flows from operations".
in case of over invoicing, check the receivables as a % of revenues and see if they are increasing or decreasing and their impact on cash flow from operations.
- check RM/labour cost as a % of sales for the company and other competitors in the industry. if significantly different, it's something to dig into.
The most important thing is to induct - keep progressing from one point to another using common sense and inference. For eg., disproportionately high receivables - >lower operating cash flows - > higher WC - >check impact on actual cash taxes paid - > if low, investigate further and clarify.
others can add in as we go along.
Vivek Gautam Portfolio (14-09-2015)
Vivek Gautam, XIRR would be the best indicator of portfolio performance. XIRR takes into account the timing of your trades also and annualizes the return automatically.More recent trades would have less impact on the XIRR number.
Your buy and sell trades will be a series of positive and negative cashflows respectively. At the end of the period (say, year, month, quarter etc.), you would assume that you sell the entire portfolio (negative entry) at the then market price. On the next day you assume that you buy it back at the same price (positive entry) so that you are ready to calculate the XIRR for the subsequent period.
Vivek Gautam Portfolio (14-09-2015)
Vivek:
What is your rationale for exiting Ambika and Gruh?
Is it to do with Ambika in particular or textile stocks in general?
HFC stocks should continue to do well.......is it because you already have Repco so chose to reduce it or you think Gruh is a well discovered stock?
Thanks
Syngene International IPO – Views invited (13-09-2015)
maheshji how isyour old pick jubilant ind at cmp?
KRBL- The King of Basmati rice (13-09-2015)
Some scuttlebutt on customer prices:
KRBL is not giving any discount on their high end products - Tibar and Classic.
Dawat is giving around 17% discount on their premium tier.
In general, market is very bad as can be judged from Best foods which is giving 53%.
I would do scuttlebutt for 5kg/10kg packages next week hopefully.
Thanks,
Rupesh
Syngene International IPO – Views invited (13-09-2015)
Mahesh,
I admire your enthusiasm for Syngene.
I have few questions though, would be great if you can answer them -
1) What is it that can go wrong for Syngene? I don't see anything negative listed in the thread and that kind of scares me.
2) In the entire thread, I only see financials being talked about (P/E, ROE, ROCE, Capex, EV etc.) but not enough discussion on what is company "actually" doing at the next level of detail. What are the name of the molecules? Who are their customers? Do we know which area the molecules are in (Dermatology? Paediatric? etc.)
Thanks,
Rupesh
P. S. Not invested
Avanti Feeds (13-09-2015)
This is very positive move by company & Further making 2 rs trading share face value increase volume of trading.over all very intelligent move by organisations..
30 stock ideas, need to reduce to 15 (13-09-2015)
1. Are you looking for multibaggers (there are some, but not all) **Looking for a balanced portfolio- medium risk high return** 2. Are you looking for stable growth (viz. 4% above bank FD) **targeted annual growth of 20-30%**
Your risk return expectations seemed skewed. With the kind of diversity you're going for (15 stocks) you can't expect high returns. You have to severely reduce the number of stocks.
What you can do is have a bulk of your investments in few stocks you think will increase multiple times and a little bit on companies you're in lookout for.
Target price is a good way to have a balanced portfolio, to preserve capital - but the returns would be patchy. That is because you'll sell something when it doubles and then lo-and-behold it goes up 25 times.
Time horizon is different for each stock, I try to go by target price, if achieved allocate to other stronger ideas
You have to think it out clearly, maybe write it in a paper. Are you looking for balanced returns or high-returns.
By infra I meant stocks dependent upon Infra as a proxy, they would do well as macro improves
Then shouldn't they be in Real State sector?