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Posts tagged Value Pickr

StageInvesting +Elliot Waves (27-07-2022)


Symphony
Another stock that falls in my should-avoid list.

Weekly Chart :
a) Could not cross 61.8 % of its decline since Jan 2018 (even in 2years bull run)

b) Lot of ups and downs around key moving averages (10 WMA, 30 WMA)

c) No clear impulse (as per EW)

SYMPHONY_2022-07-27_08-32-27

On monthly charts –

a) Trading below 40 months moving average
b) Could never cross 61.8 % of its latest declines (3 times) in last 2 years
c) RSI never crossed 60 in last 3 and half years.
d) Just taking support at a key level -any break from here can be brutal

SYMPHONY_2022-07-27_08-38-45

Disclaimer : Charts are for study purpose. Opinions are personal. No suggestions, no recommendations.

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StageInvesting +Elliot Waves (26-07-2022)

Bear Market Rally -Where are we now?

Checked few key indices – it seems either this short term rally is over or we’re at a very crucial juncture, a small push and Humpty Dumpty would start coming down .

Today’s Fed meeting may give it final direction on either side.

In short, time to be very cautious. Cirrently all stock-set-ups are in danger zone.

Midcap Index – MACD in sell -mode, could not cross 61.8% of recent decline, at the brink of breaking the rising channel.

MIDCAP_2022-07-27_05-36-55

Smallcap Index – Triple top type of formation, could not cross 61.8% of recent decline, at the brink of breaking the rising channel.MACD yet to cross toward sell !

SMLCAP_2022-07-27_05-38-44

Realty Index – MACD in sell -mode, could not cross 61.8% of recent decline, at the brink of breaking the rising channel.

REALTY_2022-07-27_05-37-55

Nifty Pharma Index – MACD in sell -mode, could not cross 61.8% of very recent decline, breaken the rising channel.

CNXPHARMA_2022-07-27_05-51-48

Power Index – MACD in sell -mode, could noy cross 61.8% of recent decline, at the brink of breaking the rising channel.

POWER_2022-07-27_05-50-13

In summary – time to be extremely cautios.

Disclaimer :Charts are for study purpose and to track the probabilities… They may or may not work.

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SYMPHONY – A Comfort to hold for Long term? (26-07-2022)

FY23Q1 concall notes

  • Highest ever Q1 quarter sales (13% over Q1FY20), significant increase in volume
  • Haven’t taken proportional price increase to increase volumes, despite this have maintained gross margins due to value engineering and product mix change
  • Channel inventory is normal
  • Subsidiary accounted for 43% of sales and 44% of EBITDA
  • Gross margins are slightly higher than pre-covid (Q1FY20), EBITDA and PAT margins are lower due to higher advertisement, freight, change in warranty estimates, D2C and e-commerce channel
  • US demand is very strong because of a hot summer, however due to recession and inflation concerns retailers are giving discounts which has to be absorbed by Symphony
  • No significant market share shift in India
  • Market share in Australia ~ 30-35%, Mexico ~ 35-40% whereas it is low in USA which is a huge market where company is looking to penetrate. Most USA sales happen in Q3 & Q4 of Indian fiscal year

Growth drivers:

  • Mexico & Australian markets are low growth and they already have sizeable market shares
  • USA should lead to higher growth due to increase in penetration
  • Greenfield in Brazil should also unlock a growth avenue
  • In India, domestic residential should be a growth driver. The Large Space Venti-cooling is a nascent market which Symphony is trying to create

Disclosure: Not invested

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Godawari Power – Any Trackers? (26-07-2022)

Hi GPIL uses thermal coal for part of its power requirement (part by solar, which within a year will meet 100% of the requirement) and also in its process to make DRI sponge iron. Any thoughts on impact of the current very high coal prices on its cost of operations?

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Sigachi Industries Limited (26-07-2022)

Have they shared the receivables numbers? Cashflows went for a toss the last FY22 and this Quarterly they haven’t shared the balance sheet yet.

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Sigachi Industries Limited (26-07-2022)

Have they shared the receivables numbers? Cashflows went for a toss the last FY22 and this Quarterly they haven’t shared the balance sheet yet.

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Piramal Enterprises Ltd (26-07-2022)

just a formality after merger of DHFL with piramal. Point to be noted though is that –
” Non-banking financial institution not accepting public deposits”
DHFL was deposit taking NBFC.

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Piramal Enterprises Ltd (26-07-2022)

It already had an NBFC licence right what’s this new licence ?

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Piramal Enterprises Ltd (26-07-2022)

In accordance with the provisions of Regulation 30 of the Listing Regulations, we wish to now
inform you that the Reserve Bank of India under Section 45 IA of the Reserve Bank of India Act,
1934, has granted Certificate of Registration to the Company to commence the business of nonbanking financial institution without accepting public deposits. The said license was received by
the Company today i.e. 26th July, 2022

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IDFC First Bank Limited (26-07-2022)

Very well said. I totally resonate with this.

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