This quater result is very bad and today also stock hammered. Please suggest to hold or exist from this stock.
Posts tagged Value Pickr
Ujaas Energy – Value Migration to Solar Power (16-11-2015)
Hi Chintan, Assem and other contributors,
Excellent work done. I have few questions -
--> Are the profit margins in this business so low? Only 16%? Till I know this business is very lucrative.
--> There is one company - EIL which is an elephant in EPc works. It ranks no.1 in entire Asia (till I know). It has started entering into solar plants. It provides EPC services as well as owns solar parks like Ujaas does. Being Govt entity, I feel it will have an added advantage over other market players. It has more than 16 patents in its name, good past track record and good govt. backing.
--> This business can be a multibagger..But implementation of REC/RPO, net metering, solar cells manufacturing and only EPC service outsourced by clients going for more than 10MW projects - are issues which need to be taken care of.
--> Who are the competitors of Ujaas?
Disc: Not invested. New to solar business. So please pardon me for any mistakes. Want to have more clarity on this business and its future course.
REPCO home finance – another Gruh in the making? (16-11-2015)
Valuing Repco on book basis say at 2.5 times book would mean a price of ~300 rs. That would mean a PE of 11-12( FY16 basis) and PE of 8-9(on FY17 basis) which would be absurd( for a business growing at and expected to grow at ~30% going forward and not only this ....with lot of relative certainty and safety).
REPCO home finance – another Gruh in the making? (16-11-2015)
As Gruh is not raising fresh capital for years and its gives out good dividend its P/BV ratio is very very high.
KSE Limited — Interesting Business (16-11-2015)
From Dr. Vijay's Blog
KSE Limited has been growing its sales at a decent pace of 15-20% year on year since last 10 years (FY2005-14). However, profitability of the company is very low. Operating profit margins (OPM) are barely 2-4% and net profit margins (NPM) are in the range of 1-2%. Moreover, profitability margins (both OPM & NPM) have been fluctuating wildly in the past.
Such low fluctuating margins are usually found in trading companies, which have very low pricing power with the customers. They are not able to pass on the increased cost of their raw materials to customers and thereby suffer in terms of low profitability.
An investor needs to be wary as companies with low profitability turn to losses very soon, in tough business environments.
I think all these concerns are very much valid and these are now showing up in the Quarterly result of the company due to which prices are going down.
Discl: Not Invested
Keerthi Industries (16-11-2015)
Recent results of NCL Industries and Keerthi Industries were not that good. The reason is that cement demand has gone down in South as well in past 3-4 months.
The sale of cement in general has come down in the last three months.
There is also some volatility in the production and dispatches.
Consequently, the prices have headed south to hover around ₹250-280
depending on the regional markets.
Reference:
http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/will-the-festival-season-bring-cheer-to-cement-cos/article7823889.ece
As per the above link, we can hope of revival of cement demand this quarter. In any case, we can rest assured that there is nothing wrong with these companies. When cement demand will increase then these should gain their share. In present situation, we can say that result is not bad.
NCL Industries – Resumption of growth? (16-11-2015)
Recent results of NCL Industries and Keerthi Industries were not that good. The reason is that cement demand has gone down in South as well in past 3-4 months.
The sale of cement in general has come down in the last three months.
There is also some volatility in the production and dispatches.
Consequently, the prices have headed south to hover around ₹250-280
depending on the regional markets.
Reference:
http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/will-the-festival-season-bring-cheer-to-cement-cos/article7823889.ece
REPCO home finance – another Gruh in the making? (16-11-2015)
@hrfacebuk: Siji I am very well aware of PB and PE valuations for NBFC's.
Did you know that Gruh is one of the most expensive financial stock in world at 12+ P/BV? Repco is at 5/6 P/BV which is extremely expensive if you take PBV as sole valuation. For years investors tried valuing Gruh on PBV and shrugged it off as super expensive. Then we came to terms with it and realized that PE fits better in Gruh's case.
Another angle is when a financial raises equity capital every few years, it renders PBV useless. For an example, IndusInd Bank was trading at PBV of 4.25 this July. They raised 5000 Cr of equity and suddenly PBV ratio dropped to 3.25. Would you then say stock was expensive at one instance and is reasonable in couple of days?
Believe it or not, most of the investors are using PE for NBFC valuation these days. And after all ROE = PB / PE. So PE is nothing but function of PB and ROE.
Technocraft industries (16-11-2015)
In all probability, this buyback seems to be set up for the promoters!
Buyback price is at such a huge premium.
Optimum time to buyback would have been a few months before when it traded at around 160 types. But then the promoters would have got only 60% of what they would get now. At least 105 crores from the 141 crores would definitely go to promoters, since their holding is already almost 75% which is the upper limit for promoters. To keep to the limit they would have to (Read they want to show they have to!! :-)) tender at least a proportionate amount of shares.
Cupid Ltd – Helping the world play safe! (16-11-2015)
I entered around 200 
I agree with your estimate for fy 16 guidance of EPS, my estimate is also close to Rs 16/17.
Earnings visibility is pretty strong and return ratios improving day by day.
Promoter is highly ethical and passionate about business.
I will classify as still under owned/undiscovered (to some extent)
Mkt will wait for several quarters to assign a v high PE.
As some analyst start discounting Fy17 EPS etc then, it can be again re rated.
Take over talks may be wishful thinking or market rumours.
In the long run, it has a potential to really surprised on higher side.
disc : invested, view are biased.