Disclosure: I'm no way remotely can be called a technical analyst. But I usually see trends when I want to sell any of my core holdings. I hold page and I have trimmed it as disclosed in my portfolio thread earlier in order to make way for alpha returns and I intend to trim it further.

Page Industries 1 Year Daily chart

Page Daily 1 Year.png1884x1350 323 KB

Chart source: Chartlink.com

1. As indicated in one of my earlier posts above, Page though briefly breached the upper line it soon resumed its down trend and it looks it is headed towards touching the lower line at around 12000. However, currently the stock is in over sold levels (look at RSI and CCI indicators) so there could be some lower selling pressure before the downturn resumes towards 12000. It appears as if Page made a significant top at 17000 though on low volumes.

Page industries 5 year weekly chart

Page Weekly 5 Years.png1884x1346 260 KB

1. It looks like Page is forming "Head and Shoulders" pattern in the weekly 5 year chart and if the chart plays out the targets could be around 10000 which is the difference between neck line and head top. Any break down below 13000 on weekly close could proved to be negative. Since this is a weekly chart the targets also play accordingly on medium term. So if the above daily chart plays out, it paves way to weekly chart as well.

Fundamentally too, it looks like the high PE coupled with lower growth relatively as well as in comparison to its track record could mean PE compression.

Again my amateurish technical skills could be playing a confirmation bias here as my previous post played out as predicted when Page fell from 14500 to 13000 levels.

EDIT: I'm as bullish on the Page business prospects as ever. Business prospects are different from stock returns prospects. With back to back lower revenue growth my perspective on stock prospects have changed.

True.

Read in AB nuvo annual report that Madura is delivering 70% roce. Please let me know where can I get detailed balance sheet, profit and loss and cash flow of Madura garments. This would help to compare as to whats main difference and why is Indian terrain not able to get that ROCE or why is Madura garments getting that ROCE.

thanks for your valuable inputs.

Excellent Accounting stuff explanation Ashwini. I never thought there would be a difference in classifcation of trade payables vs current liabilities and between RM and logistics cost. Thanks much.

Thanks Varadha. Looks like unless you are a private equity fund, you can't pass a inventory writedown just via the balance sheet - ( https://foragerfunds.com/bristlemouth/dick-smith-is-the-greatest-private-equity-heist-of-all-time/ )

Thanks Ayush. Given the nature of Avanti's business, it would be unfair to compare Q4 to Q2 balance sheet. I was trying to understand the flow of business YOY. But your re-classification point is well taken.

My confusion stemmed from the fact that given Avanti wanted to ramp up shrimp processing (as feed business can only take it so far - or so, it seems from the surface), it was only logical that they might have procured shrimp from farmers (apart from in-house production) in exchange for selling them feed. This might have bloated trade payables. But then again, shrimp processing revenues (volume not given unfortunately) has steeply fallen. So, there was a dichotomy.

But if it's just re-classification, then we should be ok. Balance sheet is anyway quite strong.

Kiran

Some critical points from Concall :-

1. Management refrained from giving any guidance but said that now they are back on track like the year 2013-14.
   They are currently managing 130MW solar plants.
   They have bid book of 100MW out of which they are L1 in 60MW (might be that NHPC order).
   They've bagged 9MW -West Bengal order plus 10MW - Oil India Order.

2. From long term perspective, Government has target of 100GW by 2022. They said that they would grow 6-7x times of Solar Industry in India. Anurag Mundra did mention that they would be
   managing around 5,000 - 7,000 MW in next 5-7 years. i.e. around 50x

3. Company has not yet entered the Household rooftop market.
   For Rooftop business, there are two critical points - a. Enforcement of Net Metering Policy & b. A product which will suit the households with less installation time.
   They are developing a solution for this market. In coming 2-3 qtrs, they will try to come up with that.

4. During the financial restructuring of various Discoms, there's a condition for them to be RPO compliant. Anurag feels that it will be a good kicker for them. He sees situation improving in coming qtrs.

Apart from these points, other points were redundant though chances are there that I may miss some points

Discl: Invested small amount to track the company.

One thing for all members to remember to help maintain VP as the best-in-class forum is to be vigilant and flag posts which they think violates the ethos of the forum. Collectively we can make a difference in keeping out those who do not share the values of the forum.